June 2022 - Summer Begins

[Omegaraptor]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GORGEOUS

Looks like Sunday will be the day to head to the eastern Gorge.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

No.    Phil won't allow it.   

Its supposed to be in the 50s all summer so we can barely tell the seasons apart.   40s in the winter... 50s in the summer.   Perfection.  

Tropical forcing on the EPS weeklies still favors a window of warmer temperatures in early July w/ upper level divergence briefly reaching the West-Pacific, if you care to know. But it doesn’t look very durable.

That late July signal IO forcing/WPAC subsidence signal though..major yikes for the Central US. Going to be some massive torching across the Plains/Midwest during the second half of July (fits the pool of unfiltered low pass analogs for that period as well).

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Tropical forcing on the EPS weeklies still favors a window of warmer temperatures in early July w/ upper level divergence briefly reaching the West-Pacific, if you care to know. But it doesn’t look very durable.

That late July signal IO forcing/WPAC subsidence signal though..major yikes for the Central US. Going to be some massive torching across the Plains/Midwest during the second half of July (fits the pool of unfiltered low pass analogs for that period as well).

Whatchu thinking about july up here? general progression? early thoughts? nothing set in stone of course but you've been fairly on point thus far this spring

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Whatchu thinking about july up here? general progression? early thoughts? nothing set in stone of course but you've been fairly on point thus far this spring

I suspect the first part of the month will be the warmest relative to average, with a cooler pattern mid/late month, based on the evolution of tropical convection/GWO and analog pools.

Not a high confidence forecast by any means, but at least there are clean intraseasonal cycles this year. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2011 really torched in the southern plains. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snowy in the Blues today. 

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

I suspect the first part of the month will be the warmest relative to average, with a cooler pattern mid/late month, based on the evolution of tropical convection/GWO and analog pools.

Not a high confidence forecast by any means, but at least there are clean intraseasonal cycles this year. 

Searched up what GWO meant... some of y'all be making stuff up at this point 

[MossMan]

Since it was too windy to be on the river we ran to Leavenworth this afternoon for a bit… Was lovely there, looked like showers up on the hill though. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

177’ South Falls is roaring. 

Edited June 14, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[snow_wizard]

44 minutes ago, Phil said:

I suspect the first part of the month will be the warmest relative to average, with a cooler pattern mid/late month, based on the evolution of tropical convection/GWO and analog pools.

Not a high confidence forecast by any means, but at least there are clean intraseasonal cycles this year. 

The last half of July being mostly dry is nearly a given here.  Temps will be the big question.  Lots of reason to think it will lean cool.

[snow_wizard]

Geeze.  Currently 50s at Mosses Lake and 40s in the Spokane area.  That is some big time cold for this time of year.

[The Blob]

3 hours ago, Doiinko said:

My area seems to be subject to locally stronger east winds when they downslope off of the West Hills, so it can get decently windy. Not sure if it warms enough to be a detriment in snow/ZR events but it's an interesting thing.

You should come out to Troutdale when it's windy. I remember going to the Fairview Fred Meyers in January 2017 when it hit 11 that night. 50mph winds and my phone said it felt like -5.

[GHweatherChris]

Yet another nice day to be outside, bbq'ed some steaks and made some baked taters for dinner, love not having oppressive heat yet!!  Although, I do love me some oppressive heat at times every summer that brings it!!

Edited June 14, 2022 by GHweatherChris

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, The Blob said:

You should come out to Troutdale when it's windy. I remember going to the Fairview Fred Meyers in January 2017 when it hit 11 that night. 50mph winds and my phone said it felt like -5.

That would be a bit much for me! January 2017 was also pretty windy here (not close to Troutdale though), the snow drifted all over the place. Would be kind of cool to see a wind sensor in this area.

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

That would be a bit much for me! January 2017 was also pretty windy here (not close to Troutdale though), the snow drifted all over the place. Would be kind of cool to see a wind sensor in this area.

https://www.wunderground.com/history/weekly/us/or/portland/KPDX/date/2017-1-10
This weather station seems to have recorded a gust up to 40mph but it could be in a sheltered location/not accurate.

[The Blob]

3 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

https://www.wunderground.com/history/weekly/us/or/portland/KPDX/date/2017-1-10
This weather station seems to have recorded a gust up to 40mph but it could be in a sheltered location/not accurate.

I was going of whatever app I was using at the time. Still, cold and 40mph and it was coming in around the door frame of my apartment. 

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

https://www.wunderground.com/history/weekly/us/or/portland/KPDX/date/2017-1-10
This weather station seems to have recorded a gust up to 40mph but it could be in a sheltered location/not accurate.

Oops I just realized I didn't even use the correct station in the link

[RentonHill]

Almost seven years ago I got this pic of Ricky and tiger walking the barren landscape that was the PNW in 2015

[RentonHill]

Walla walla has seen a ton of rain. I’ve noticed they always seem to be in the bullseye recently.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

Walla walla has seen a ton of rain. I’ve noticed they always seem to be in the bullseye recently.

your battery... 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

your battery... 

Omg I know I used to be a battery nazi but I upgraded my phone and it lasts like half a day on low battery. It’s amazing. My old iPhone 8 would go from 20 to dead in like 10 minutes. 

[Doinko]

8 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Oops I just realized I didn't even use the correct station in the link

Couldn't find the proper station but I remember the NWS forecasting gusts in the 35 mph range in February. Definitely nothing like east Portland or areas near the Gorge but still interesting.

[Chewbacca Defense]

12 hours ago, Kayla said:

Yellowstone river is running at historic levels this morning. Currently at 13.2ft near Gardiner which is nearly 2ft higher than the previous record set back in June 1918. The Gallatin river near me is at its highest level since 1974.

The northern Yellowstone entrance is blocked off since this bridge washed away.

What is this doing to the snowpack there?  What about over towards Missoula?

[Chewbacca Defense]

11 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Almost seven years ago I got this pic of Ricky and tiger walking the barren landscape that was the PNW in 2015

My sales director played there yesterday or today, is playing  at the course in Gearhart (I think that's where it is) today or tomorrow, then playing 3 days in Bandon.  I'm guessing its a lot greener for him now that it was in your picture.

[Doinko]

10 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Couldn't find the proper station but I remember the NWS forecasting gusts in the 35 mph range in February. Definitely nothing like east Portland or areas near the Gorge but still interesting.

Here's the WRF GFS forecast from February 2021, shows a bit of a stronger wind downwind of the West Hills and Chehalem Mountain, which is pretty interesting. 

[TT-SEA]

40 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Yet another nice day to be outside, bbq'ed some steaks and made some baked taters for dinner, love not having oppressive heat yet!!  Although, I do love me some oppressive heat at times every summer that brings it!!

Yes... Aberdeen WA is infamous for oppressive heat.   Charleston SC and Aberdeen WA.   You are getting very lucky this summer.    Every post lately feels like you are being held hostage and reading notes at gunpoint.    You are bad at trolling.   But it is good comedy.   

[Doinko]

Then again it also showed this . 12+ inches in my area would've been nice

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Searched up what GWO meant... some of y'all be making stuff up at this point 

Phil’s posts are always chock-full of TLA’s, XTLA’s, and XTLA/E’s.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... Aberdeen WA is infamous for oppressive heat.   Charleston SC and Aberdeen WA.   You are getting very lucky this summer.    Every post feels like you are being held hostage and reading notes at gunpoint.    You are bad at trolling.   

Isle of Palms looks pretty summery. Tim weather!

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

Isle of Palms looks pretty summery. Tim weather!

Aberdeen WA is somehow escaping it this year!!

[Phil]

Strike that, they’re getting fog/mist at the moment.

NOT Tim weather. But pretty tropical!

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

Strike that, they’re getting fog/mist at the moment.

NOT Tim weather. But pretty tropical!

Fog?   Screw that!   

[Blizzard777]

36 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Almost seven years ago I got this pic of Ricky and tiger walking the barren landscape that was the PNW in 2015

Jason Day would later collapse from the heat in that barren land

[Phil]

I don’t think the GFS has any idea what to do with this pattern. Looks totally bonkers.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Jason Day would later collapse from the heat in that barren land

To be fair... that is a golf course built on sand.   If it ever dries out for a few days this year it will be all brown again.   

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I don’t think the GFS has any idea what to do with this pattern. Looks totally bonkers.

It looks pretty much like the ECMWF early next week.    Bonkers.

 

[RentonHill]

7 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Jason Day would later collapse from the heat in that barren land

I think he blAmed it on vertigo after climbing several hundred feet to that super high par 3. Can’t blame the guy.

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

57 yesterday.  A nice -13 departure.

Whoops, was looking at Seattle city office stats.

[Blizzard777]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

To be fair... that is a golf course built on sand.   If it ever dries out for a few days this year it will be all brown again.   

It is a fun course to play though !  Can’t wait for the brothers to come up for our annual game. 

[Blizzard777]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

I think he blAmed it on vertigo after climbing several hundred feet to that super high par 3. Can’t blame the guy.

Love that par 3!!!