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June 2022 - Summer Begins


TT-SEA

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It looks pretty much like the ECMWF early next week.    Bonkers.

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5769600.png

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5769600.png

That’s the inflection point, after which it goes off the rails over the Pacific.

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1 minute ago, Jginmartini said:

It is a fun course to play though !  Can’t wait for the brothers to come up for our annual game. 

How much does it cost for 18?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s the point where it goes off the rails over the Pacific.

Maybe... but there will some elements that are correct and other models eventually follow.    Like the trough this week... it does actually get close to cutting off.     The GFS was wrong as usual but it was not totally out in left field.   I use the GFS for trends.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe... but there will some elements that are correct and other models eventually follow.    Like the trough this week... it does actually get close to cutting off.     The GFS was wrong as usual but it was not totally out in left field.   I use the GFS for trends.   

I use ensemble blends for trends.

Blends being the key word since both the GEPS and GEFS tend to be under-dispersed.

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53F and mostly cloudy. Nice out there. Only got up to 64F.

  • Sun 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

00z GFS is a huge outlier from its own ensemble mean.

Shocker. 🙄

I would imagine that after day 7 or 8... most of the ensemble members are normally outliers from the mean.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I would imagine that after day 7 or 8... most of the ensemble members are normally outliers from the mean.  

The divergence is pretty stark given the GEFS is relatively under-dispersed.

312BF859-49AB-4A98-A3C3-06BBD03263A7.gif

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8 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

They could have used some of that from February 12 to 28, 2010

Elkford hosted the Olympics?    Impressive.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I see KGEG had a high of 49 through 5 p.m. but has since jumped up to 51.     

Spokane has also picked up just about the normal rainfall for the entire month of June since the rain started yesterday evening.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Same system might have brought snow to Whistler, which I remember having a deficiency. 

I doubt whistler had a shortage of snow.  The north shore mountains of Vancouver did though.  And they had a lot of the freestyle and snowboard events there. 

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1 minute ago, smerfylicious said:

1.37" of rain today. Blew past 7.5" for the month. I looked around on prism and couldn't find a June in the past 20 years this wet in Gold Bar. I'll have to look all the way back to see if there's ever been a June this wet here. 

We are to 3rd wettest now. 

  • Like 4

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... Aberdeen WA is infamous for oppressive heat.   Charleston SC and Aberdeen WA.   You are getting very lucky this summer.    Every post lately feels like you are being held hostage and reading notes at gunpoint.    You are bad at trolling.   But it is good comedy.   😀

its-fine-im-fine-everything-is-fine (1).jpg

Tangibly, weather wise, it has been a nice spring and early start to summer, sorry that you are suffering and feel like you need project on me for no reason.

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5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Tangibly, weather wise, it has been a nice spring and early start to summer, sorry that you are suffering and feel like you need project on me for no reason.

So you’re not a hostage at gun point reading off weather preferences? 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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9 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

One more system like this and I'm knocking on 10" for the month. Here's hoping there's a respite.

Kind of seems like we are done, but who knows. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Kind of seems like we are done, but who knows. 

New euro is wet up here. This would probably put us at #1 at sea tac. 

BA7D573F-2793-435B-9EC5-F7B3C3907ADA.jpeg

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Another trough late in the run on the euro. Gfs does not agree gets pretty toasty late in the run…but I’d bet on the euro. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Final totals on the euro. Pretty chilly for this time of year through and through on this run. Already been a week since we’ve hit 70 and if this verifies we will be waiting awhile longer…also breaking the June rainfall record. Mean temp this month has already came back down from earlier. 

32E91252-5EA7-4D6A-9C4A-25BAF08B70F4.jpeg

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Pretty disappointing to see the weekend looking wetter tonight.  Very short window for good weather this year now.

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  • Weenie 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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image.png

Okay...!

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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image.png

Christ almighty 🤮

  • Sun 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

image.png

Christ almighty 🤮

Not going to happen.  The EPS has been insistent on a relatively dry, but decidedly cool pattern for week 2.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2010 had 2 major heat waves (highs well into the 90s) in July and August, one a piece. But each of those heatwaves were separated by cool, oceanic weather, in addition to being quite brief, making each heatwave feel more 'earned' and less of an assault on the senses. In fact, despite the two major heatwaves and a few other quite warm days, both July and August ended up two or more degrees below their modern averages thanks to the very extended chilly stretches in between.

Then of course five years later we saw one long heatwave called JAS.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not going to happen.  The EPS has been insistent on a relatively dry, but decidedly cool pattern for week 2.

I am aware. Just not very fun to look at!

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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The ECMWF operational shows EPO and PNA both -3 at the end of the run.  That doesn't scream wet, but certainly favors well below normal temps.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Phil and I talked about this being the year for locking into a major cool regime quite a while ago.  No doubt we are seeing it.  I'm just waiting for the more enjoyable NW flow incarnation to arrive.

Possible the table is being set for a great cold season.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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9 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Looks like some nice summer weather to me. 

It's not just the magnitude, it's the duration. GFS develops this extended heatwave for a week. I wouldn't even be revolted by a day or two in the 90s, but keep it at just that -- a day or two!

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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image.png

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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