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June 2022 - Summer Begins


TT-SEA

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh wow. Too soon bro. Did you know he was also accused of rape? 

I remember that. His daughter and 7 others died too though. Also it's the Lakers current superstar who supports totalitarian regimes in the name of social justice and said that the Rockets GM "wasn't educated". That's why I stopped watching. But this can be continued in the politics thread.

 

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS showing a balmy high of 53 in Seattle on Saturday... and it does not even show rain during the afternoon.    Just very thick low and mid level clouds.    I imagine that is going to be an unusually low solar radiation day around Seattle... ECMWF only show 56 that day.    Even a rainy day should be able to hit 60 at this time of year.

gfs-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-5596800.png

Probably too cold, Euro tends to under-mix marine layers.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Looks like you guys are getting your turn for late June magic!

Lol. I’ve grown apathetic to it. Finally reached the acceptance phase of denial.

One of these next few summers will be a transition to El Niño and we’ll get our turn at (relative) bliss.

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice afternoon 

F710D58E-6086-4BA8-99B3-9005ECFC8C76.jpeg

Jealous... its dark and gloomy here again.    Although this is payback for Saturday when it was flipped.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

2 months ago it was snowing to start off our 2 month stretch of cooler and wetter than normal weather. 

I consider the big crash following the warm day on 4/7 to be when things really got going. Good memories 🥰 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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looking forward to some action on Friday evening!

Friday: Confidence is increasing that areas along the WA/ID border
will see the best chance for strong to severe thunderstorms. A
cutoff low will move towards the Oregon coast, spinning up moisture
and energy into the area due to a southernly flow. MUCAPE values are
forecasted to be between 1000 and 2000 J/kg which is significant for
this area. Dew points Friday afternoon will also reach into the 60s
with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s, along with a
significant amount of atmospheric shear. PWATs are also forecasted
to be extremely high on Friday for this time of year with values
showing between 1 to 1.5 inches. But what does that mean? Basically,
that heavy to torrential rain will be a threat with any storm that
forms. We will keep a close eye on Friday as if the ingredients
continue to line up, we could see strong to severe storms that have
a northernly track. The best timing for storms seems to be later
than what normally occurs with the late afternoon into late evening
showing the best potential. Areas along the Canadian border have a
chance of thunderstorms but there is a limited amount of the energy
needed to sustain strong to severe storms but heavy rain still
remains a concern.
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4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I consider the big crash following the warm day on 4/7 to be when things really got going. Good memories 🥰 

Yeah who knew that this would go on for this long! I figured the troughing would be a blip on the radar then back to what we’ve seen in recent springs but boy was I wrong. Shoulda known we were in for it when that super deep troughing showed up in mid April. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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What is it with the weekends lately?  Latest model runs show at least one day spoiled this weekend and the same for the following weekend.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

 

It's snowing again on the summit at Crystal as well. LOL maybe they could have squeezed one more weekend of skiing in. They only had 158 days to be open!

Also, you all can stop squabbling over our terrible/wonderful weather patterns and blame me for our continued cooler trends. Bought an ungodly expensive water-cooled mattress paid last month in anticipation of hot weather and have been setting my bed to a delightfully brisk 55 degrees ever since. Oddly, we seem to be stuck around that temp, and the PNW is the only place not broiling in their own sweat. Coincidence? I think not. And before you ask, I will not be setting it any higher so we are stuck with a non-summer this year and forever more. Get used to it.  

 

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28 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

2 months ago it was snowing to start off our 2 month stretch of cooler and wetter than normal weather. 

Quite a run for sure.  April ranked 5 for coldest on record for WA and May was 8.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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17 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah who knew that this would go on for this long! I figured the troughing would be a blip on the radar then back to what we’ve seen in recent springs but boy was I wrong. Shoulda known we were in for it when that super deep troughing showed up in mid April. 

Every week that goes by it still feels too good to be true. And we all know it won’t last forever

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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4 minutes ago, The Ms. Anthrop said:

 

It's snowing again on the summit at Crystal as well. LOL maybe they could have squeezed one more weekend of skiing in. They only had 158 days to be open!

Also, you all can stop squabbling over our terrible/wonderful weather patterns and blame me for our continued cooler trends. Bought an ungodly expensive water-cooled mattress paid last month in anticipation of hot weather and have been setting my bed to a delightfully brisk 55 degrees ever since. Oddly, we seem to be stuck around that temp, and the PNW is the only place not broiling in their own sweat. Coincidence? I think not. And before you ask, I will not be setting it any higher so we are stuck with a non-summer this year and forever more. Get used to it.  

 

Here's Schweitzer summit in ID

 

https://schweitzer.roundshot.com/skyhouse/#/

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10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

What is it with the weekends lately?  Latest model runs show at least one day spoiled this weekend and the same for the following weekend.

Going to be both days this weekend per the ECMWF.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12 minutes ago, The Ms. Anthrop said:

 

It's snowing again on the summit at Crystal as well. LOL maybe they could have squeezed one more weekend of skiing in. They only had 158 days to be open!

Also, you all can stop squabbling over our terrible/wonderful weather patterns and blame me for our continued cooler trends. Bought an ungodly expensive water-cooled mattress paid last month in anticipation of hot weather and have been setting my bed to a delightfully brisk 55 degrees ever since. Oddly, we seem to be stuck around that temp, and the PNW is the only place not broiling in their own sweat. Coincidence? I think not. And before you ask, I will not be setting it any higher so we are stuck with a non-summer this year and forever more. Get used to it.  

 

Does it have a sub freezing setting for winter?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Every week that goes by it still feels too good to be true. And we all know it won’t last forever

I would love to see some sunny and cool weather.  We may have a shot at some of that going forward.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Every week that goes by it still feels too good to be true. And we all know it won’t last forever

Just waiting to pay hard for this in July. Got that feeling that once the calendar flips tye weather will too... Summer has been cursed. Hope I'm wrong, because I've been loving this Spring.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Just waiting to pay hard for this in July. Got that feeling that once the calendar flips tye weather will too... Summer has been cursed. Hope I'm wrong, because I've been loving this Spring.

It's not farfetched to think July could be like 2010 or 2011.  The million dollar question is can we pull off a cool August.  That month has been on an insane roll.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

PDX will not hit 90 this July. Heard it here first.

Intriguing.  It's certainly possible.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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14 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Just waiting to pay hard for this in July. Got that feeling that once the calendar flips tye weather will too... Summer has been cursed. Hope I'm wrong, because I've been loving this Spring.

First half of July has a chance to be warm IMO. Should be some kind of CCKW/MJO reaching the West-Pacific.

Looks brief, though. I’d wager against any significant and/or prolonged heat.

And by mid/late July there’s a renewed bout of IO convection/West-Pacific subsidence that would favor another cycle of -PNA/troughing, should that come to fruition.

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Just now, Phil said:

First half of July has a chance to be warm IMO. Should be some kind of CCKW/MJO reaching the West-Pacific.

Looks brief, though. I’d wager against any significant and/or prolonged heat.

And by mid/late July there’s a renewed bout of IO convection/West-Pacific subsidence that would favor more -PNA/troughing, should that come to fruition.

I certainly know it's true this year... but for the last decade you have been saying every warm spell that comes into sight will not last long.  😀

Anyways... early July is a good time for something other than cold troughing and rain.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

I certainly know it's true this year... but for the last decade you have been saying every warm spell that comes into sight will not last long.  😀

Anyways... early July is a good time for something other than cold troughing and rain.   

Lol, actually not true at all. If you recall I predicted significant late summer heat in 2018. Also forecasted a blowtorch in 2015. And a mild/wet summer in 2019.

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12 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lol, actually not true at all. If you recall I predicted significant late summer heat in 2018. Also forecasted a blowtorch in 2015. And a mild/wet summer in 2019.

Its most of the time!    😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

...Not to mention the Summers of the aughts weren't exactly all that chilly either. We haven't had a truly cold summer since 2001.

Not completely true depending on your definition of cold and your location. For average summer high temperature OLM was basically just as cold in 2011 (and to a slightly lesser extent in 2010 and 2012) to 2001. All those summers were 2.5-3 degrees below average for highs.

BLI average summer high temp was colder in 2008 than 2001 and actually even the infamous summer of 1954 only had high temps half a degree lower than 2008.

For SEA the summer of 2001 had an average high temp 2 degrees colder than anything in the 2008, 2010-12 range, but that's really the only station where that is the case. Renton, Sand Point, PAE and basically every other station I glanced at in W WA has had a top 10 if not a top 5 coldest summer within the last two decades.

Obviously the coast is not the I-5 corridor, but looking at NWS stations and basing on average high temperature, 2010 was actually Hoquiam's coldest summer on record (since 1953) and 2008 was Quillayute's coldest summer on record (since 1966).

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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4 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Not completely true depending on your definition of cold and your location. For average summer high temperature OLM was basically just as cold in 2011 (and to a slightly lesser extent in 2010 and 2012) to 2001. All those summers were 2.5-3 degrees below average for highs.

BLI average summer high temp was colder in 2008 than 2001 and actually even the infamous summer of 1954 only had high temps half a degree lower than 2008.

For SEA the summer of 2001 had an average high temp 2 degrees colder than anything in the 2008, 2010-12 range, but that's really the only station where that is the case. Renton, Sand Point, PAE and basically every other station I glanced at in W WA has had a top 10 if not a top 5 coldest summer within the last two decades.

Obviously the coast is not the I-5 corridor, but looking at NWS stations and basing on average high temperature, 2010 was actually Hoquiam's coldest summer on record (since 1953) and 2008 was Quillayute's coldest summer on record (since 1966).

For those scoring at home... July 4th in 2001 was sunny and 77 degrees at SEA.    Back when every 4th of July supposedly featured 55-degree drizzle.   

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For those scoring at home... July 4th in 2001 was sunny and 77 degrees at SEA.    Back when every 4th of July supposedly featured 55-degree drizzle.   

The worst July 4th on record at SEA was probably the 61/56 day with 0.57" of rain in 1992. Although I'm sure some would argue that 92/59 dry day in 2015 was worse (especially with the threat of firework induced fires).

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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I will probably be in Klamath Falls for the Fourth. I don't think there's been a single washout Fourth of July ever recorded there. They haven't even had precip on that day since 1986. I guess the closest would be the high of 62 on 7/4/1977 (which had 0.01" precip).

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9 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

The worst July 4th on record at SEA was probably the 61/56 day with 0.57" of rain in 1992. Although I'm sure some would argue that 92/59 dry day in 2015 was worse (especially with the threat of firework induced fires).

I believe in 92 we put a tarp up on the deck and huddled under it at the lake to watch the show.

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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27 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Not completely true depending on your definition of cold and your location. For average summer high temperature OLM was basically just as cold in 2011 (and to a slightly lesser extent in 2010 and 2012) to 2001. All those summers were 2.5-3 degrees below average for highs.

BLI average summer high temp was colder in 2008 than 2001 and actually even the infamous summer of 1954 only had high temps half a degree lower than 2008.

For SEA the summer of 2001 had an average high temp 2 degrees colder than anything in the 2008, 2010-12 range, but that's really the only station where that is the case. Renton, Sand Point, PAE and basically every other station I glanced at in W WA has had a top 10 if not a top 5 coldest summer within the last two decades.

Obviously the coast is not the I-5 corridor, but looking at NWS stations and basing on average high temperature, 2010 was actually Hoquiam's coldest summer on record (since 1953) and 2008 was Quillayute's coldest summer on record (since 1966).

That is quite interesting... I had been meaning to compare other sites but never got around to it. It seems urbanization is killing off "cold summer" potential as nights grow increasingly warmer in the city. High temps are a better barometer (for lack of a better word) for representing the overall chilliness of a season nowadays, and that stat clearly shows a smoother, more believable upward trend over the decade, with historically significant cold in that department from late March onwards this year.

Lows on the other hand have been on the cold side, but not quite so notable at KSEA.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It's so true.    Too many extremes.  

 

13 minutes ago, Phil said:

Tim, is that you?

 

Except "shitty" 57 and rain is objectively better for pretty much everything and everyone in the PNW than 105 and wildfires.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

 

Except "shitty" 57 and rain is objectively better for pretty much everything and everyone in the PNW than 105 and wildfires.

Good Lord... that is not the point.   Neither are our normal summer weather.    One extreme or the other.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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