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June 2022 - Summer Begins


TT-SEA

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33 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

All the homeless have bikes here.

I mean, I used to live there and don't remember that. Guess things changed.

Here, a lot of the homeless folks (at least in the city) tend to prefer staying in one general area where there really is no need for a bike. Or they push around a cart full of all sorts of items.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Friday into Saturday looking increasingly whet

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Both Saturday and Sunday may stay in the 50s according to the GFS with thick cloudcover. Juneuary continues.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Then it flips on Sunday... with Seattle around 70 while in the 50s down in western OR.  

gfs-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-5683200.png

Good news.    The 00Z GFS does away with splitting the weekend.   Highs in the 50s both days in the Seattle area.    Summer perfection.   We get 12 summer weekends a year... always nice when they are March-like.    I am sure we will have a 70-degree sunny weekend in December when days are 23 minutes long.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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image.png

Now that's a marine layer day sounding if I've ever seen one... This is low 50s and drizzle all day verbatim, given strong convergence and plentiful moisture. July 4th climo before 2013... ;)

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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We’re at 2 sub 60 days so far this June…haven’t had more than 2 in any year since 2012. Might get 3 or 4 this year. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

image.png

Now that's a marine layer day sounding if I've ever seen one... This is low 50s and drizzle all day verbatim, given strong convergence and plentiful moisture. July 4th climo before 2013... ;)

 

Somehow that weak little trough is going to make this weekend even worse than last weekend with that massive trough following the AR event.    You would think we would have earned one nice weekend day at least.

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Somehow that weak little trough is going to make this weekend even worse than last weekend with that massive trough following the AR event.    You would think we would have earned one nice weekend day at least.

It's not set in stone just yet. These low level marine layer setups are fickle, as you know well. Small adjustments in trough depth, strength, and trajectory, as well as marine layer depth, could spell the difference between a 52°F drizzlefest and a gradually clearing afternoon peaking in the 60s.

I'd be more worried if I were you if there were a defined stratoform frontal system, which is lacking come Sunday. Saturday is actually fairly nice on the Euro, which I tend to agree with. Most global models tend to retain precip for too long and fail to mix things properly, hence the GFS keeping backing nimbostratus and weak sfc heating into the evening Saturday.

My guess is Saturday clears out w/ highs in the low-mid 60s. Sunday a stable marine layer comes in, bringing dreary skies, spotty drizzle, and highs in the mid 50s to around 60.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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ICON has highs in the 50s Friday through Sunday.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Ha, the GFS is actually colder than the Canadian and EPS next weekend/early next week. Don’t see that too often. :lol: 

I’ll wager that is overdone.

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57 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Good news.    The 00Z GFS does away with splitting the weekend.   Highs in the 50s both days in the Seattle area.    Summer perfection.   We get 12 summer weekends a year... always nice when they are March-like.    I am sure we will have a 70-degree sunny weekend in December when days are 23 minutes long.  

Highest temperature of the month of June so far in San Diego: 71 F

Compare that to a max of 95 F in April, a max of 91 F in February, a max of 85 F in March, a max of 81 F in May and a max of 77 F in January.

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33 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It’s soon going to become a very delicate balance between Tim freaking out and people freaking out about Tim. Timteresting times ahead!

Well apparently that means we won't even be able to manage a short 3-day sunny break... so I should just give up even looking for it.   Pretty brutal when I am admiring 1955.   :(

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Highest temperature of the month of June so far in San Diego: 71 F

Compare that to a max of 95 F in April, a max of 91 F in February, a max of 85 F in March, a max of 81 F in May and a max of 77 F in January.

Look, San Diego is it's own state and no one really cares about that hole. If you want to see high averages, talk about cities that aren't San Diego, LA, San Francisco or Sacramento. There are much more reputable cities to talk about the extremes in weather.

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well apparently that means we won't even be able to manage a short 3-day sunny break... so I should just give up even looking for it.   Pretty brutal when I am admiring 1955.   :(

You will get just as much as sun as God decides you deserve. And you’ll be happy about it. The end.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

You will get just as much as sun as God decides you deserve. And you’ll be happy about it. The end.

Meanie.  

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

This. The literal coldest case outcome is objectively enjoyable.

1954 was the coldest summer on record for the area.  I believe it didn't make 80 in July at all at SEA.  That summer still got way better than what we have been seeing so it has to get better to some degree.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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31 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well apparently that means we won't even be able to manage a short 3-day sunny break... so I should just give up even looking for it.   Pretty brutal when I am admiring 1955.   :(

Well this June is nothing like 1955 here. We didn’t have a single 70+ low that month (only June on record without one) and very little heat to speak of until July.

Obviously not the case this year. Reminds me more of 2012, though some pretty distinct differences there as well.

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ens_image.php?geoid=135742&var=201&run=0

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

1954 was the coldest summer on record for the area.  I believe it didn't make 80 in July at all at SEA.  That summer still got way better than what we have been seeing so it has to get better to some degree.

It hit exactly 80°F exactly once in both July and August, the only occurences all year.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1954 and 55' are the 2nd and 3rd coldest July's here. 1993 is the coldest. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

If it comes down to native salmonberries and tomatoes from Greece, you can probably guess which one I'd prefer to save.

I mean technically I think tomatoes are from Mesoamerica (wild ones grow in South America, early evidence in Mexico), but I get your point. Honestly though, I hope we get some extended warm, sunny, and dry weather during the first few weeks of July. Raspberries are basically the thing I look forward to most in the summer and they are not happy if it's too rainy. Even the salmonberries lack sugar and can get pretty mealy if there's not enough sun.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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EURO keeps the bulk of the rain more south. 

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 hours ago, MV_snow said:

Question for those of you that enjoy cool and wetter spring and summer weather: would you be ok if we just plain didn’t get a summer this year and the weather we’ve had so far in June continued into July and August? Is this simply to “make up” for the touchiness of recent summers? I thought this weather was refreshing at first and a nice change of pace, but I gotta admit it’s getting to me. Maybe my memory is too short but the touchiness of last summer seems like a long time ago now and I’m ready for at least a week of 70s and sun, which has been too much to ask.
 

It’s also funny hearing everyone in real life b!tching all the time and then coming on here and finding over half the forum loves it.

I spend every weekend I can backpacking and climbing in the Cascades and the Olympics. At home I enjoy this weather, but the constant showers in the mountains make it hard to get any views when you go into the backcountry. I've definitely felt less limited the last couple years because the weather has been so nice, but I would much prepare this to smoke or the forests actively burning and all the glaciers melting. So if we got 5" of rain a month and had no days above 70F in July, August, and September I'd be pretty disappointed, but that's not going to happen so I'm kind of rooting for whatever crazy anomalies that come our way.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

EURO keeps the bulk of the rain more south. 

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

Yeah, now that the GFS has swung wetter up here, of course the Euro was going to turn drier.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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64/49 day here. Partly to mostly cloudy early with a light shower or two, and late afternoon clearing. A really pleasant one.

Clear and 52 now with a bright full moon. Should be our coolest night in a week or so, probably well into the 40s

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Just as the sun went behind the hill this evening, and a bit later. Currently 52. Usually when I am here it is still in the 70’s at this time of the evening. 

58650A3E-6307-41CB-A0FC-24D5322D013D.jpeg

C78F6819-2F2E-4099-B57C-A53BAF8783E1.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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43 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

64/49 day here. Partly to mostly cloudy early with a light shower or two, and late afternoon clearing. A really pleasant one.

Clear and 52 now with a bright full moon. Should be our coolest night in a week or so, probably well into the 40s

60/47 here.  The one aspect really disappointing me right now is our inability to clear out at night here.  A 47 low ain't bad for being cloudy though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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56 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Mostly clear and 46 this morning. Had a gorgeous sunrise earlier.

00z Euro/EPS suite looked pretty good. It’s still early but we might actually be able to pull off a slightly below average June.

SEA is almost -2 on the month now and the ECMWF does not show a 70 degree high in sight which takes us almost to the end of the month.    SEA might end up -3 or -4 on the month which is significantly colder than normal.

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7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

1954 was the coldest summer on record for the area.  I believe it didn't make 80 in July at all at SEA.  That summer still got way better than what we have been seeing so it has to get better to some degree.

You would think it has to get better.   

1954 was objectively much better in terms of extended breaks in the rain.   This is the data from Snoqualmie Falls below.

I need someone to point me to a year that can compare to this April - June around here because I can't find it.   Even 1954 looks good and I never thought I would say that.

I realize there is a gap in here... just showing that May 1954 was much drier than this year and going forward from mid June looks much better than what the ECMWF is showing.  At least we had some dry days in the low to mid 70s.   Don't see that for at least another 10 days.

 

may 1954.png

june 1954.png

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@BLI snowman can you give me a year going back to 1898 that would compare to this year out here in terms of persistent rain during April-June.    I haven't found one yet.   Maybe I am missing something though.    You are the stats king on here!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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50 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You would think it has to get better.   

1954 was objectively much better in terms of extended breaks in the rain.   This is the data from Snoqualmie Falls below.

I need someone to point me to a year that can compare to this April - June around here because I can't find it.   Even 1954 looks good and I never thought I would say that.

I realize there is a gap in here... just showing that May 1954 was much drier than this year and going forward from mid June looks much better than what the ECMWF is showing.  At least we had some dry days in the low to mid 70s.   Don't see that for at least another 10 days.

 

may 1954.png

june 1954.png

At least in Portland (not sure about your location), 2010 was similar and the only year to have more days with measurable rain from April to like June 9th (Mark Nelsen posted the stat then.

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14 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

At least in Portland (not sure about your location), 2010 was similar and the only year to have more days with measurable rain from April to like June 9th (Mark Nelsen posted the stat then.

Good info!

2010 did have a week long dry spell here in May (8-15) which obviously did not happen this year.

And from June 16-30 it only rained on 1 day here.   ECMWF shows rain on 8 or 9 of the next 10 days... so something like 2010 won't happen going forward either.

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Good info!

2010 did have a week long dry spell here in May (8-15) which obviously did not happen this year.

And from June 16-30 it only rained on 1 day here.   ECMWF shows rain on 8 or 9 of the next 10 days... so something like 2010 won't happen going forward either.

LOL. 2nd half of June looks much drier, and if it rains on 8 of the next 10 days, half of that will be 5 mins of drizzle. No model is showing a wet pattern continuing. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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