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June 2022 - Summer Begins


TT-SEA

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1 minute ago, T-Town said:

Pretty cool. 
 

The deer was unafraid of me. It stood in that same spot and stared me down as I walked past. 

Deer are the same here.   I think I could probably walk up and pet them when they come into our yard.   Trying to chase them out is futile... they just move a few feet back and wait for us to leave.   And then continue eating our landscape plants.  😀

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16 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

Owww...off topic, but the all time high temperature record for Georgia is 112F. Other states which would be at risk of setting all time high temperatures if this verified next week would be Alabama (112F), South Carolina (113F), North Carolina (110F), and Florida (108F). Time for the southeast to get the Heat Dome!

20220615_12zEuro_SERecordHighs.thumb.png.aa0dee2dfae7a156491c605564e6857e.png

oof my folks live right under that 110 in Columbia SC

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Just now, Phil said:

Cutoff error is back!

Translation... any time the GFS shows a nice day in western WA it has to be wrong.  👍

Eventually SEA has to reach 75 degrees.    The latest ever was 6/23/2010.    That means every year in the 1950s managed do something that 2022 can't do.   

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

95 degrees is absolutely an improvement over 110 degree heat.   Pretty much any other weather that we have ever had is an improvement over 110 degree heat.   Getting a root canal is an improvement over 110 degree heat.  Still not fun though.    

I’d take the heat over the root canal.  The heat last summer really wasn’t that bad. 

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I had my first root canal last year. It wasn't bad at all. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Correction... I hope the GFS is wrong.   That cut off error eventually morphs into another ugly weekend next week.   The 00Z run was much better.

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26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Translation... any time the GFS shows a nice day in western WA it has to be wrong.  👍

Eventually SEA has to reach 75 degrees.    The latest ever was 6/23/2010.    That means every year in the 1950s managed do something that 2022 can't do.   

Plenty of ways to reach 75°F that don’t involve a ULL.

My expectation is for a prograding GOA high to move closer to the coast during the first half of July, providing for a warmer (and much drier) pattern. I think it could last 2 full weeks if potential is maximized.

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Correction... I hope the GFS is wrong.   That cut off error eventually morphs into another ugly weekend next week.   The 00Z run was much better.

Might not be an error after all? 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Correction... I hope the GFS is wrong.   That cut off error eventually morphs into another ugly weekend next week.   The 00Z run was much better.

Yup I think the amplitude of that trough/ULL is overdone (as a result of the attempt to cut it off in SW-Canada).

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Plenty of ways to reach 75°F that don’t involve a ULL.

My expectation is for a prograding GOA high to move closer to the coast during the first half of July, providing for a warmer (and much drier) pattern. I think it could last 2 full weeks if potential is maximized.

A wet second half of July is quite common.   2010 is a good example with heat wave in early July and a total of 0.00 inches of rain here during the second half of July.  

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Deer are the same here.   I think I could probably walk up and pet them when they come into our yard.   Trying to chase them out is futile... they just move a few feet back and wait for us to leave.   And then continue eating our landscape plants.  😀

Garden hose.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Actually a pretty interesting run. Would see some days well into the 80s in the Willamette Valley ahead of that trough. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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32 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Translation... any time the GFS shows a nice day in western WA it has to be wrong.  👍

Eventually SEA has to reach 75 degrees.    The latest ever was 6/23/2010.    That means every year in the 1950s managed do something that 2022 can't do.   

There’s a pretty good chance we are gonna beat the record from 2010. 
Gfs says no. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

There’s a pretty good chance we are gonna beat the record from 2010. 

Almost guaranteed per the ECMWF.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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gfs_T2ma_nwus_31.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Almost guaranteed per the ECMWF.

GFS has something to say!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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What a dynamic and lovely run!

gfs_T2m_nwus_51.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS has something to say!

It would only be the 54th time in the last couple of months that it has promised the first real warm spell of the year only to have it disappear on future runs.    I can be fooled 53 times... but I draw the line at 54.  😃

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It would only be the 54th time in the last couple of months that it has promised the first real warm spell of the year only to have it disappear on future runs.    I can be fooled 53 times... but I draw the line at 54.  😃

GFS does seem to be locking in on troughing/rain chances for the end of the month. Only question is if we can squeeze out a mini heatwave before the crash. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

A wet second half of July is quite common.   2010 is a good example with heat wave in early July and a total of 0.00 inches of rain here during the second half of July.  

I’m not sure the second half will be “wet” either, but probably cooler than the first half? Whenever the MJO returns to the E-Hem in mid/late July the odds for a cooler pattern increase.

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A progression like the 12Z GEM would be ideal... weak ULL swings through later next week and leads to a beautiful weekend.

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

A progression like the 12Z GEM would be ideal... weak ULL swings through later next week and leads to a beautiful weekend.

Thermal trough off the southern Oregon coast. Heat dome developing. GTFO

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12z GFS spits out afternoon temps for Seattle of 76, 78, 75, and 76 Tuesday through Friday of next week. Would love if that actually happened but I'm very skeptical given how chilly the Euro still is.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Fortunately the GEM solution is an extreme outlier. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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GFS appears to be on the warm side for next week. 

ens_image.php?geoid=135742&var=201&run=1

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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When compared to the ensemble mean, it appears the operational GFS is leading the way in the long range, when it comes to a pattern change. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

When compared to the ensemble mean, it appears the operational GFS is leading the way in the long range, when it comes to a pattern change. 

The GFS has not led anything for the last 3 months.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The GFS has not led anything for the last 3 months.

That is an often repeated fallacy on this forum. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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New drought maps are out. They haven't quite removed the drought designation from Eastern WA, but it's getting pretty close with another chunk eliminated from last week. I'm not sure there will be any rain in the core of the basin for a while so this might be as limited as it gets although I could see them removing D0 from far northern areas with additional rain.

This is the best the state has been since March of last year, and better than any time in 2020. The last time the state was completely absent of any drought conditions was November of 2019.

20220616_WADrought.thumb.png.8f04ff6e692ac6299ff0e99a43969759.png20220607_WA_drought.thumb.png.1bbf45181ceeca88c4851b28bc14a451.png

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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16 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

New drought maps are out. They haven't quite removed the drought designation from Eastern WA, but it's getting pretty close with another chunk eliminated from last week. I'm not sure there will be any rain in the core of the basin for a while so this might be as limited as it gets although I could see them removing D0 from far northern areas with additional rain.

This is the best the state has been since March of last year, and better than any time in 2020. The last time the state was completely absent of any drought conditions was November of 2019.

20220616_WADrought.thumb.png.8f04ff6e692ac6299ff0e99a43969759.png20220607_WA_drought.thumb.png.1bbf45181ceeca88c4851b28bc14a451.png

Finally out of 'drought' in Spokane!

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12Z ECMWF delivers that trough later next week without that annoying warm spell beforehand.    Looks like Tuesday is the only day without rain on this run.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That is an often repeated fallacy on this forum. 

The GFS hasn’t led s**t.

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Looks like we'll continue to keep that 4CH in check!

 

off14_temp.gif

off14_prcp.gif

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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