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June 2022 - Summer Begins


TT-SEA

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Is that CONUS death ridge going to stick around all summer? It’s almost certainly going to be there in late July/August with the next IO/IPWP MJO.

If it doesn’t take a break in early/mid July then I don’t think it’s going anywhere. 🙄 

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

How does your garden look?   Here are a couple pics from here.   Trying to spend as much time outside as possible this evening.   👍

20220616_180625.jpg

20220616_180650.jpg

Nothing like yours! Not a lot of growth yet. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Is that CONUS death ridge going to stick around all summer? It’s almost certainly going to be there in late July/August with the next IO/IPWP MJO.

If it doesn’t take a break in early/mid July then I don’t think it’s going anywhere. 🙄 

That’s kinda where I’m at with it, hence the July call. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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It's been a long time since the last subfreezing high in July.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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19 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's been a long time since the last subfreezing high in July.

It was a lot easier with all the glaciers here back in the day. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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16 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's been a long time since the last subfreezing high in July.

I just went into the future in my stainless steel plutonium fuel guzzler (plutonium prices are outrageous right now) and this is how the 4th is shaping up this year! 

558E425E-686D-4E11-93D0-89B4548F5CB7.jpeg

9D1658BB-92BB-469F-8BAB-A3F46EC48111.jpeg

B6891A07-A823-40AE-8456-EAC3196AB21D.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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I get the feeling july won’t be too wet maybe close to average but may feature a lot of marine layer days. I also get the feeling we may squeeze in a shortlived heatwave somewhere in there too. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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9 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I get the feeling july won’t be too wet maybe close to average but may feature a lot of marine layer days. I also get the feeling we may squeeze in a shortlived heatwave somewhere in there too. 

2008 or 2010 type summer incoming.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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39 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's been a long time since the last subfreezing high in July.

1949 actually had frost on the 4th in some of the favored cold spots.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

2008 or 2010 type summer incoming.

Seems hard to imagine given recent years but with the help of 1991-2020 averages maybe we can get one or two below normal months this summer (not including June). 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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On a 500mb level, mid August 2008 was real close to a huge, substantial heatwave. The evolution looks like a poor man's July 2009.

Ended up with three straight days in the 90s, but westerlies aloft couldn't quite calm down enough and heights stonewalled around 585dm. Hardly any easterlies at the sfc and meager WAA, just stellar large scale descent, enough to skyrocket temps into the 90s. Small tweaks and there would have been triple digits.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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15 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

It's Putin's fault

In Joe Biden's brain at least.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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15 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I get the feeling july won’t be too wet maybe close to average but may feature a lot of marine layer days. I also get the feeling we may squeeze in a shortlived heatwave somewhere in there too. 

I think you may be spot on.  Could be a great July if the onshore flow is NW as opposed to SW.

  • Weenie 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

In Joe Biden's brain at least.

There's a thread for this, Jim.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

On a 500mb level, mid August 2008 was real close to a huge, substantial heatwave. The evolution looks like a poor man's July 2009.

Ended up with three straight days in the 90s, but westerlies aloft couldn't quite calm down enough and heights stonewalled around 585dm. Hardly any easterlies at the sfc and meager WAA, just stellar large scale descent, enough to skyrocket temps into the 90s. Small tweaks and there would have been triple digits.

PDX had a very legit shot at three straight 100 degree days which would have been unprecedented for that late.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

There's a thread for this, Jim.

Oh brother.  People are so damn touchy.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Oh brother.  People are so D**n touchy.

As a moderator here you should probably set a better example by not saying political stuff. If you feel a certain way you shouldn’t broadcast it here and do it in the appropriate way. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Wow some great trends on the GFS tonight.

 

Definitely backing off the heat…still some mid 70s which is typical this time of year. Will be interesting to see if it’s full caving to the cooler euro solution. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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46 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

2008 or 2010 type summer incoming.

Summer is already almost a 1/3rd over... its not incoming.    

And July of 2008 was much nicer than I remembered... same with July 2010 after the 4th.   I just ran the satellite loop for July 2010 and cloudy mornings were common but there were only 3 afternoons that were cloudy out here from July 5-31.    That seems like a dream right now.   I can't even imagine a perfectly sunny afternoon at this point.   No joke.    This pattern has been more relentless than I even thought was possible.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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32 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

1949 actually had frost on the 4th in some of the favored cold spots.

Pretty crazy that we just passed OLM's latest freeze date of 6/13/1976. In fact, June 1976 was absolutely insane for lows in Olympia. The airport recorded 7 mornings with a temperature 35F or below including 3 freezes on the 3rd, the 5th, the 13th, and a 33F low on the 26th. No other June has had more than 2 days with a low at or below 35F and in fact even September has never had more than 6 days with a low at or below 35F.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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00Z GEM is quite warm again like its 12Z run.   I remember when the GEM could randomly pull a rabbit out of it's hat and be the first to call a pattern change.    Its been a long time.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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57 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Oh brother.  People are so damn touchy.

Just standard quality control friend. Pretty normal for any internet forum. Lord knows how much I give a crap about whatever senile puppet is waving his hands in front of his drooling onlookers, no matter the color they're brandishing; red, blue, purple, all the same by me. But sooner or later, someone says this, and this person says that, because that person made them feel this way, and that, and blah blah... who needs that in the June weather observation thread?

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Just standard quality control friend. Pretty normal for any internet forum. Lord knows how much I give a crap about whatever senile puppet is waving his hands in front of his drooling onlookers, no matter the color they're brandishing; red, blue, purple, all the same by me. But sooner or later, someone says this, and this person says that, because that person made them feel this way, and that, and blah blah... who needs that in the June weather observation thread?

Bastardi/Mass 2024

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Vast improvements on the 00Z ECMWF for later next week... the trough moves inland faster and it shows the marine layer getting scoured out.    Thursday - Saturday are actually quite sunny with pleasant temps on this run.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Jim... please don't spike the ball on next weekend yet.   We can't jinx it.  👍

Don't worry about that.  The GFS still looks kind of shaky.  On the other hand the ECMWF shows a nice clipper next week followed by delightful weather.  That clipper could bring a nippy night or two as well.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I've had 4 consecutive lows in the 40s in spite of quite a bit of cloud cover during the nights.  Not bad.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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67/50 day today at KSEA, good for a -3.5°F on the day for what is supposedly going to be the warmest day of the week.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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image.png

That is an unbelievable trough just north of the Great Lakes on the fantasy range 06z GFS... Sea level snow at a similar latitude to us, in early July. Wild stuff.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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