Meatyorologist Posted June 18, 2022 Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 2 hours ago, TT-SEA said: I do like Meaty. Fresh perspective and funny as sh*t. Never even thought about him banning anyone. Good, this'll buy you another couple weeks. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Yeah, but it wasn't weeks of dry weather like May 2018. That was summer. May 1993 had a quick summer preview, but also some pretty wet seasonal days. I remember 1993 pretty clearly. Its not like every May is just cold and wet and though... even back through history. It often has enough summery weather to avoid being depressing like this May. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted June 18, 2022 Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Westerlies are initiating as the trough axis shifts overhead. In response low level convergence is rapidly initiating, as well as stratoform drizzle. To the north over the Strait of Georgia the main occlusion band is going strong. That feature will drift SE over the Sound throughout the day tomorrow. It may very well be a cold drizzly day. But Skagit just got my hopes up about a dry weekend. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: But Skagit just got my hopes up about a dry weekend. I got some good news for you Randy. The 00Z ECMWF shows more substantial clearing during the afternoon the next 2 days... particularly from Seattle to Bellingham. The is the 4-panel frame for Saturday and Sunday at 5 p.m. I think you will definitely see some sun this weekend. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted June 18, 2022 Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 Radar is starting to pick up on the drizzle fest coming. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted June 18, 2022 Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 Euro has a couple drizzly looking cool days next week but also a couple nice days by the looks of it. Overall it stays pretty cool though through day 7. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Euro has a couple drizzly looking cool days next week but also a couple nice days by the looks of it. Overall it stays pretty cool though through day 7. Actually more like a morning clouds... afternoon sun scenario after Monday. There are no full on drizzly days after this weekend. Its a vast improvement across the board compared to what we have been seeing and improved from its 12Z run as well. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 00Z ECMWF shows PDX close to 90 and SEA around 80 by next Saturday. 3 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 Significant improvements on the EPS and control run for later in the week and next weekend as well. Trough slides east instead of south and a ridge forms over the PNW on both runs. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted June 18, 2022 Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 5 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Not everywhere. My brother lives in Sweden. He's not a spoiled Southern Californian like I am. Niiiice. Just booked tickets to see the in-laws in Stockholm this August. Looking forward to a break from this climate 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted June 18, 2022 Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 4 hours ago, TT-SEA said: I love mustard on hamburgers and hot dogs. Can't stand ketchup. I don't like mustard and ketchup. I also don't eat hotdogs and hamburgers. @PhilI've been vegetarian for 20 years because of texture and taste of meats. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post The Blob Posted June 18, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 Caught this earlier. 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted June 18, 2022 Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 Looks like something fun to the south of PDX. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 18, 2022 Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 GFS operational is an explosively hot outlier on the 06z ensemble suite, but it led the way this time last year! You know we're gonna bake eventually. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 18, 2022 Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 Also appears to be the possibility of some wet weather to end the month on the EURO ensembles. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted June 18, 2022 Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 Warmest day of the year likely incoming Tuesday. Highs in the mid-upper 70s seems reasonable; that figure is reciprocated across most guidance, though the jury is still out on the north Sound. Hell, if high clouds trend thicker and more south, Seattle may hold off on surpassing 73F for the first time this year yet still. After Tuesday, marine influence yet again takes over and it may be longer still before we finally reach the mid 70s at KSEA. Hell, I'd welcome a warm day or two. For once this last stupid decade we've actually earned it. Torching has, in fact, not begot torching this season. A nice change of pace. I have no doubt in my mind that we'll evade long stretches of 80s and 90s, at least through July. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted June 18, 2022 Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 Wednesday may be a marine layer day. Highs in the low 60s with morning drizzle, similar to today and tomorrow. 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted June 18, 2022 Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest we'll overperform on high temperatures today. There's been a sharp uptick in temps this afternoon across all guidance, and climo usually suggests early clearing. As a footnote, HRRR suggests some decent CAPE later today. May get some small hail if we clear up. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 18, 2022 Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 Looks like it's cloudy and 44. Dogs have been going wild all night. Major cougar panic on the local FB group. For whatever reason we have a lot of cats in the area this year. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted June 18, 2022 Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 Cloudy and 52 this morning. Looks like our chances of the first cool June in 10 years may be fading. 2 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted June 18, 2022 Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 Headed down to see the Sounders today, the last match I went to was Kasey Kelley’s retirement match, so it’s been a minute. Hopefully we don’t have to deal with too much rain. Speaking of that, just noticed an interesting feature with the percip north of the border. It’s moving south; but there is a wave moving north through the precip of increased intensity… Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted June 18, 2022 Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 53 here. Mostly cloudy with some clearing to the west. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said: I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest we'll overperform on high temperatures today. There's been a sharp uptick in temps this afternoon across all guidance, and climo usually suggests early clearing. As a footnote, HRRR suggests some decent CAPE later today. May get some small hail if we clear up. Not that it means much... but the cloud bases are higher than I was expecting this morning out here and there are even a few patches of blue sky. Also sprinkling. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 Really challenging situation in terms of the forecast coming up. Models have no idea how to handle the expanding high pressure and troughing to the north. It should be generally nice but any significant warmth is still very much up in the air. The 06Z GFS was even warmer for later in the week and next weekend. But I see the 06Z GEFS, EPS, and control run all look like they are back to keeping the trough to the north intact rather than splitting it like the 00Z runs showed which allowed a ridge to develop. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted June 18, 2022 Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 .09” so far on the day, 4.81” for the month. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted June 18, 2022 Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 I spent most of the day yesterday puking out my guts. I enjoyed reading all the posts about norovirus in between bathroom visits. 1 4 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted June 18, 2022 Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 Got down to 51 and cloudy this morning. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted June 18, 2022 Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 8 hours ago, TT-SEA said: Actually more like a morning clouds... afternoon sun scenario after Monday. There are no full on drizzly days after this weekend. Its a vast improvement across the board compared to what we have been seeing and improved from its 12Z run as well. Yeah doesn’t look too bad seems pretty close to climo for early summer. 3 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 12Z GFS goes bonkers with the ridging... mid 90s in Seattle by day 10. I am pretty sure that won't happen. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted June 18, 2022 Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 Next weekend is looking like it has a shot at being great. Maybe some big diurnal spreads in the wake of that clipper as well. 3 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 12Z GEM is much more ridgy for next weekend compared to its 00Z run. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 18, 2022 Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 2 hours ago, TT-SEA said: Really challenging situation in terms of the forecast coming up. Models have no idea how to handle the expanding high pressure and troughing to the north. It should be generally nice but any significant warmth is still very much up in the air. The 06Z GFS was even warmer for later in the week and next weekend. But I see the 06Z GEFS, EPS, and control run all look like they are back to keeping the trough to the north intact rather than splitting it like the 00Z runs showed which allowed a ridge to develop. The GFS is too warm but analogs (and numerical guidance) suggests that period from the end of June until mid-July is favored for a warmer pattern. Sticking to my guns on this one. 4 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 18, 2022 Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 Then it seems Jesse might get his way with the next IO MJO/-dAAMt in mid/late July into August. Looking increasingly potent on LR guidance as we get closer (and tropical forcing analogs also bullish on it). 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, Phil said: The GFS is too warm but analogs (and numerical guidance) suggests that period from the end of June until mid-July is favored for a warmer pattern. Sticking to my guns on this one. GFS is always too extreme... warm and cold. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Phil said: Then it seems Jesse might get his way with the next IO MJO/-dAAMt in mid/late July into August. Looking increasingly potent on LR guidance as we get closer (and tropical forcing analogs also bullish on it). So back to daily rain and temps in the 50s and 60s during the second half of July and all of August? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 18, 2022 Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 OT but holy crap this weather is amazing! Low/mid 70s with dewpoints in the 40s. We will be spending the whole day outside. I’m almost in tears it feels so good. Especially after yesterday’s 99°F torchfest. 7 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 Appreciable sun breaks here and dry so far. Looks like the clouds are a little more broken to the south and east of Seattle on the satellite. At least for now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 18, 2022 Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 GFS wants us to return to the summer pattern of 2013-21. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Phil said: OT but holy crap this weather is amazing! Low/mid 70s with dewpoints in the 40s. We will be spending the whole day outside. I’m almost in tears it feels so good. Especially after yesterday’s 99°F torchfest. Spectacular! 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 18, 2022 Report Share Posted June 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: So back to daily rain and temps in the 50s and 60s during the second half of July and all of August? That sounds a little extreme. I’m only looking at 500mb composites, which develop the -PNA look. Doesn’t look like a firehose or jet extension situation, just an Aleutian block and western trough, of average quality. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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i will personally make sure this happens
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