Jump to content

June 2022 - Summer Begins


TT-SEA

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I do like Meaty.  Fresh perspective and funny as sh*t.  Never even thought about him banning anyone.   

Good, this'll buy you another couple weeks.

  • Like 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, but it wasn't weeks of dry weather like May 2018. That was summer. May 1993 had a quick summer preview, but also some pretty wet seasonal days. I remember 1993 pretty clearly. 

Its not like every May is just cold and wet and though... even back through history.   It often has enough summery weather to avoid being depressing like this May.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Westerlies are initiating as the trough axis shifts overhead. In response low level convergence is rapidly initiating, as well as stratoform drizzle.

To the north over the Strait of Georgia the main occlusion band is going strong. That feature will drift SE over the Sound throughout the day tomorrow. It may very well be a cold drizzly day.

But Skagit just got my hopes up about a dry weekend. 😞

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

But Skagit just got my hopes up about a dry weekend. 😞

I got some good news for you Randy.    The 00Z ECMWF shows more substantial clearing during the afternoon the next 2 days... particularly from Seattle to Bellingham.

The is the 4-panel frame for Saturday and Sunday at 5 p.m.   I think you will definitely see some sun this weekend.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-clouds_fourpanel-5596800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-clouds_fourpanel-5683200 (1).png

  • Excited 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro has a couple drizzly looking cool days next week but also a couple nice days by the looks of it. Overall it stays pretty cool though through day 7. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Euro has a couple drizzly looking cool days next week but also a couple nice days by the looks of it. Overall it stays pretty cool though through day 7. 

Actually more like a morning clouds... afternoon sun scenario after Monday.     There are no full on drizzly days after this weekend.    Its a vast improvement across the board compared to what we have been seeing and improved from its 12Z run as well. 

 

  • Like 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Significant improvements on the EPS and control run for later in the week and next weekend as well.    Trough slides east instead of south and a ridge forms over the PNW on both runs.   

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS operational is an explosively hot outlier on the 06z ensemble suite, but it led the way this time last year! You know we're gonna bake eventually. 

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
  • scream 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Also appears to be the possibility of some wet weather to end the month on the EURO ensembles. 

  • Excited 1
  • scream 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Warmest day of the year likely incoming Tuesday. Highs in the mid-upper 70s seems reasonable; that figure is reciprocated across most guidance, though the jury is still out on the north Sound. Hell, if high clouds trend thicker and more south, Seattle may hold off on surpassing 73F for the first time this year yet still. After Tuesday, marine influence yet again takes over and it may be longer still before we finally reach the mid 70s at KSEA.

Hell, I'd welcome a warm day or two. For once this last stupid decade we've actually earned it. Torching has, in fact, not begot torching this season. A nice change of pace. I have no doubt in my mind that we'll evade long stretches of 80s and 90s, at least through July.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wednesday may be a marine layer day. Highs in the low 60s with morning drizzle, similar to today and tomorrow.

  • Like 1
  • Sick 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest we'll overperform on high temperatures today. There's been a sharp uptick in temps this afternoon across all guidance, and climo usually suggests early clearing.

As a footnote, HRRR suggests some decent CAPE later today. May get some small hail if we clear up.

  • Storm 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like it's cloudy and 44. Dogs have been going wild all night. Major cougar panic on the local FB group. For whatever reason we have a lot of cats in the area this year. 

  • Excited 1
  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Headed down to see the Sounders today, the last match I went to was Kasey Kelley’s retirement match, so it’s been a minute.  Hopefully we don’t have to deal with too much rain.

 

Speaking of that, just noticed an interesting feature with the percip north of the border. It’s moving south; but there is a wave moving north through the precip of increased intensity…

C6A8BBFC-0A4C-44EF-ACD6-1E925673FFED.thumb.gif.418779bd317cd71f2309617f92bd7a82.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest we'll overperform on high temperatures today. There's been a sharp uptick in temps this afternoon across all guidance, and climo usually suggests early clearing.

As a footnote, HRRR suggests some decent CAPE later today. May get some small hail if we clear up.

Not that it means much... but the cloud bases are higher than I was expecting this morning out here and there are even a few patches of blue sky.   Also sprinkling.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Really challenging situation in terms of the forecast coming up.   Models have no idea how to handle the expanding high pressure and troughing to the north.    It should be generally nice but any significant warmth is still very much up in the air.   The 06Z GFS was even warmer for later in the week and next weekend.   But I see the 06Z GEFS, EPS, and control run all look like they are back to keeping the trough to the north intact rather than splitting it like the 00Z runs showed which allowed a ridge to develop.

  • Like 1
  • Confused 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Actually more like a morning clouds... afternoon sun scenario after Monday.     There are no full on drizzly days after this weekend.    Its a vast improvement across the board compared to what we have been seeing and improved from its 12Z run as well. 

 

Yeah doesn’t look too bad seems pretty close to climo for early summer. 

  • Like 3

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Next weekend is looking like it has a shot at being great.  Maybe some big diurnal spreads in the wake of that clipper as well.

  • Like 3
  • Weenie 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Really challenging situation in terms of the forecast coming up.   Models have no idea how to handle the expanding high pressure and troughing to the north.    It should be generally nice but any significant warmth is still very much up in the air.   The 06Z GFS was even warmer for later in the week and next weekend.   But I see the 06Z GEFS, EPS, and control run all look like they are back to keeping the trough to the north intact rather than splitting it like the 00Z runs showed which allowed a ridge to develop.

The GFS is too warm but analogs (and numerical guidance) suggests that period from the end of June until mid-July is favored for a warmer pattern. Sticking to my guns on this one.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Then it seems Jesse might get his way with the next IO MJO/-dAAMt in mid/late July into August. Looking increasingly potent on LR guidance as we get closer (and tropical forcing analogs also bullish on it).

  • Popcorn 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

The GFS is too warm but analogs (and numerical guidance) suggests that period from the end of June until mid-July is favored for a warmer pattern. Sticking to my guns on this one.

GFS is always too extreme... warm and cold.   

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Then it seems Jesse might get his way with the next IO MJO/-dAAMt in mid/late July into August. Looking increasingly potent on LR guidance as we get closer (and tropical forcing analogs also bullish on it).

So back to daily rain and temps in the 50s and 60s during the second half of July and all of August?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

OT but holy crap this weather is amazing! Low/mid 70s with dewpoints in the 40s. We will be spending the whole day outside.

I’m almost in tears it feels so good. :lol:  Especially after yesterday’s 99°F torchfest.

E9D0C9D5-5DA8-4921-8AEB-1A32B08DBC9A.jpeg 

  • Like 7
  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Appreciable sun breaks here and dry so far.    Looks like the clouds are a little more broken to the south and east of Seattle on the satellite.   At least for now.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS wants us to return to the summer pattern of 2013-21.

  • Excited 1
  • Sad 1
  • Sick 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

OT but holy crap this weather is amazing! Low/mid 70s with dewpoints in the 40s. We will be spending the whole day outside.

I’m almost in tears it feels so good. :lol:  Especially after yesterday’s 99°F torchfest.

E9D0C9D5-5DA8-4921-8AEB-1A32B08DBC9A.jpeg 

Spectacular!

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So back to daily rain and temps in the 50s and 60s during the second half of July and all of August?

That sounds a little extreme. 😂 I’m only looking at 500mb composites, which develop the -PNA look.

Doesn’t look like a firehose or jet extension situation, just an Aleutian block and western trough, of average quality.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...