June 2022 - Summer Begins

[Skagit Weather]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Next weekend is looking like it has a shot at being great.  Maybe some big diurnal spreads in the wake of that clipper as well.

Yeah, 12z GFS, 12z GEM, and 00z Euro all show temperatures approaching 80F next weekend. Could be the first summery weekend!

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS wants us to return to the summer pattern of 2013-21.

For as much as y’all get on Tim’s case, you’re literally just as bad when models show the first instance of ridging in 3+ months.  

And this pattern has been clearly projected on filtered MJO/GWO analog pools for over a month now. So it shouldn’t come as a surprise.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Yeah, 12z GFS, 12z GEM, and 00z Euro all show temperatures approaching 80F next weekend. Could be the first summery weekend!

12Z GEFS looks good too.   

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

OT but holy crap this weather is amazing! Low/mid 70s with dewpoints in the 40s. We will be spending the whole day outside.

I’m almost in tears it feels so good.   Especially after yesterday’s 99°F torchfest.

 

Must have been one hell of a cold front.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

That sounds a little extreme. I’m only looking at 500mb composites, which develop the -PNA look.

Doesn’t look like a firehose or jet extension situation, just an Aleutian block and western trough, of average quality.

Yeah....major rain in late July / early August is exceedingly unlikely in any year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

For as much as y’all get on Tim’s case, you’re literally just as bad when models show the first instance of ridging in 3+ months.  

And this pattern has been clearly projected on filtered MJO/GWO analog pools for over a month now. So it shouldn’t come as a surprise.

Maybe not a surprise, but it's always a disappointment. 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Must have been one hell of a cold front.

The wind was roaring early this AM but it’s much calmer now.

No rain with it, though. The GFS was projecting a thunderstorm outbreak a few days ago, but Euro was steadfast with the dry outcome. Low and behold, the GFS was wrong.

[snow_wizard]

I would love to see something like August 1955 this summer.  One of the coldest Augusts on record and yet very little rain and lots of sunshine.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Phil said:

The wind was roaring early this morning but it’s much calmer now.

No rain with it, though. The GFS was projecting several rounds of severe weather a few days ago but Euro was steadfast with the dry outcome. Low and behold, the GFS was wrong.

It seems to me that dry cold fronts of that strength, during the summer, are very rare in that part of the country.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It seems to me that dry cold fronts of that strength, during the summer, are very rare in that part of the country.

Yeah it’s unusual. Seems when it’s hot/dry in the Plains it increases the likelihood of a dry outcome here.

Had lots of dry frontal passages in 2011 and 2012. Also had a couple of them in 2016 IIRC.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I would love to see something like August 1955 this summer.  One of the coldest Augusts on record and yet very little rain and lots of sunshine.

Cold being a relative term.    It looks like an August that I would generally enjoy too.    At Snoqualmie Falls... most of the days were in the 70s with some 60s and 80s mixed in and it only rained on 2 days.    It looks like a month that would have been fairly sunny.

[Phil]

Interestingly, because of the time of year/climatology, the same regime of tropical forcing that’ll assist with the warmer pattern is also producing the strongest trade wind surge in months.

This will likely trigger a substantial upwelling wave in July.

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

.09” so far on the day, 4.81” for the month. 

Seems like it continues to be much wetter to the south this month.  Just 1.99” officially so far in June for Shawnigan lake

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Seems like it continues to be much wetter to the south this month.  Just 1.99” officially so far in June for Shawnigan lake

Much of it has to do with the placement of that AR event last week. 

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Much of it has to do with the placement of that AR event last week. 

We had 1” from that. 

[Omegaraptor]

This upcoming warm/dry/sunny weather is going to be a godsend for farmers.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

60F with some occasional showers. Nice day!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hope everyone is enjoying the holiday weekend!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensemble mean creeping higher, but the operational still leading the way with explosive heat. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF for next Saturday morning... might we actually have a warm summer weekend?      People are going to be out en masse.    Some serious pent up demand right now.

[Phishy Wx]

54 and drizzly

[RentonHill]

Getting some boomers up here

[TacomaWaWx]

Euro looks pretty nice. Might squeeze out a bit more rain the next couple days before we start to dry out. Doesn’t look exceedingly hot as long as we’re not 85+ I’m happy. 

[TT-SEA]

Another shot at the ECMWF run... the control run agrees completely for next weekend.    A very good sign.  

 

[Meatyorologist]

Would be interesting to see a warm July followed by a cold August. Not a very common progression this century.

[Phishy Wx]

this is probably the last wet weekend until late September I bet (at least over here on the east side). I just jinxed it lol

 

time to turn on irrigation soon

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Another shot at the ECMWF run... the control run agrees completely for next weekend.    A very good sign.  

 

FINALLY!!!!

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Would be interesting to see a warm July followed by a cold August. Not a very common progression this century.

Unheard of this century in fact.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF for next Saturday morning... might we actually have a warm summer weekend?      People are going to be out en masse.    Some serious pent up demand right now.

Some who have been enjoying the great outdoors in the last few months will be indoors now.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Some who have been enjoying the great outdoors in the last few months will be indoors now.

I think you have that backwards.

[Meatyorologist]

The extended heat the GFS is showing won't verify. But things will grow unseasonably warm quickly. I hope to god it doesn't last. Because if a -ENSO background state like this doesn't produce a cold summer, then what the hell will anymore?

[GHweatherChris]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF for next Saturday morning... might we actually have a warm summer weekend?      People are going to be out en masse.    Some serious pent up demand right now.

The only 3 people I know that are pent up are on this forum.

[TT-SEA]

People in Alaska and in the middle of the country and in the SE US and in Europe would probably believe Tonga has already caused warming.   Somehow the PNW has been in an isolated ice box.   But maybe not for much longer.  

[TT-SEA]

57 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

The only 3 people I know that are pent up are on this forum.

I will let you know what the boat launch at Lake Sammamish looks like next weekend.   My guess is it will be off the charts packed if the model trends hold.  Normally there is nice weather spread out more in May and June to even things out. 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

The extended heat the GFS is showing won't verify. But things will grow unseasonably warm quickly. I hope to god it doesn't last. Because if a -ENSO background state like this doesn't produce a cold summer, then what the hell will anymore?

August is the month I am really pulling for to be cool.  That would be really impressive after 20 consecutive warm to hot ones.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

People in Alaska and in the middle of the country and in the SE US and in Europe would probably believe Tonga has already caused warming.   Somehow the PNW has been in an isolated ice box.   But maybe not for much longer.  

I'm trying to figure out how that picture relates to wilting heat.  

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

August is the month I am really pulling for to be cool.  That would be really impressive after 20 consecutive warm to hot ones.

That would be nice, but the CPC is calling for a warmer ASO though

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm trying to figure out how that picture relates to wilting heat.  

I assume it's of a kid trying to stay cool.   They always pull out photos of kids in NYC getting sprayed by the fire hydrants for heat wave stories there. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I assume it's of a kid trying to stay cool.   They always pull out photos of kids in NYC using the fire hydrants for heat wave stories there. 

I remember them showing photos like that of people at water parks last year during the heat wave.

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, GHweatherChris said:

The only 3 people I know that are pent up are on this forum.

I am one of those 3 and I CANNOT WAIT!!!!!!