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June 2022 - Summer Begins


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If the Willamette Valley hits 100 our climate officially sucks and has no hope. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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At this point it looks like a 2 day heat spike. We'll see where that goes...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Main difference is that there's no signal for that kind of heat anywhere on the coast. This time last year the GFS was being mocked for spitting out 120s in NorCal. Barely 110 there this time, plus weaker forcing offshore.

Fortunately, maximum potential temperatures this go around seem to be under three digits in the Sound, and well under 116 (🤮) in the Willamette Valley.

I am trying to will it in to existence, I would find it hilarious if this the all or nothing summer, nothing but rain and cool temps with just brief interludes of oppressive unlikeable heat and then right back to rain and cool temps over an over again, would be funny.

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At this point it looks like a 2 day heat spike. We'll see where that goes...

Crashes to a more pleasant +2 to +5 kind of weather pattern afterwards, probably closer to average and lower in the uber range

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

I am trying to will it in to existence, I would find it hilarious if this the all or nothing summer, nothing but rain and cool temps with just brief interludes of oppressive unlikeable heat and then right back to rain and cool temps over an over again, would be funny.

#2010ing

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Crashes to a more pleasant +2 to +5 kind of weather pattern afterwards, probably closer to average and lower in the uber range

Setting the table nicely for #no90july.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

For the layman who might get caught up in the hyperbole, there’s no meaningful similarities between the pattern shown a week from now and last June’s hellfire.

Phoenix sees it all the time.

One time in Arizona I saw a big Shell sign with a missing S. Gas prices were less hellish though at that time.

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10 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I am trying to will it in to existence, I would find it hilarious if this the all or nothing summer, nothing but rain and cool temps with just brief interludes of oppressive unlikeable heat and then right back to rain and cool temps over an over again, would be funny.

I kinda like seasonal extremes as long as it’s not a constant theme throughout the summer. We had a 1 day heat spike in august 2020 where we hit 97 and crashed afterwards that was kinda fun. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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19 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I am trying to will it in to existence, I would find it hilarious if this the all or nothing summer, nothing but rain and cool temps with just brief interludes of oppressive unlikeable heat and then right back to rain and cool temps over an over again, would be funny.

That would actually be pretty funny... just nothing but extremes.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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32 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

For the layman who might get caught up in the hyperbole, there’s no meaningful similarities between the pattern shown a week from now and last June’s hellfire.

Lol’ing at some of the commentary in here tonight. It’s going to hit 90 for like 2 days.

Heck, your July prediction at PDX might actually verify. No big heat signal in any of the extended ensemble clusters now.

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21 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lol’ing at some of the commentary in here tonight. It’s going to hit 90 for like 2 days.

Heck, your July prediction at PDX might actually verify. No big heat signal in any of the extended ensemble clusters now.

It’s a bold call, but with what looks to be a dominant central US ridge and some soil moisture spending cash, why not…

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It’s a bold call, but with what looks to be a dominant central US ridge and some soil moisture spending cash, why not…

You can exchange four of your your earned Soil Moisture Tokens© for a prize of your choice from the main kiosk, including 5F off your next high temperature, a removal of one 90F day, or two free hot dogs.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

You can exchange four of your your earned Soil Moisture Tokens© for a prize of your choice from the main kiosk, including 5F off your next high temperature, a removal of one 90F day, or two free hot dogs.

How many more rainy days do we need to be able to cash in for two sub-65 degree late July highs and the giant stuffed downvote hanging high behind the pimple-faced counter attendant?

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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6 hours ago, Phil said:

Apparently Tulip Trees do well in the PNW? How many are growing up there?

https://meyersign.com/2020/06/tales-from-the-magic-skagit-a-tulip-poplar-grows-in-mount-vernon-pt-2/

Interesting. I've passed that tree dozens of times and never thought much about it. Obviously I don't pay enough attention to trees.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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00Z ECMWF looks similar to its 12Z run.   It would be favorable timing to get that ULL through here mid week before the weekend of the 4th.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Welp, if the GFS is to be believed, then the NFL players will finally be showing up...

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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The nicest day of the year thus far will be on Tuesday, the solstice. Sunny with highs in the mid-upper 70s. Nice to see the sun at it's highest point of the year.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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image.png

Certainly loving this trend for Wednesday. Deep marine layer with highs in the upper 50s.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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7 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Is 75-80 oppressive unlikable heat for you?

No... he is talking about completely bypassing 75-80 which is the goldilocks zone and going back forth between 95 and 58 all summer.   Either miserable heat or cloudy and drizzling and nothing else.   Which would be pretty funny.  The ultimate mother nature trolling job.   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Another mild morning. 48, rained a little earlier this morning. 0.02” in the bucket. 29.99” April-present. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

They're saying 88 by later next week maybe.  oof might have to turn on the AC before July.  I don't like these trends

I was thinking about pulling the AC out of the closet later this week. :(

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Based on satellite imagery might start clearing out soon…going to go out to Anderson if it does to get some kayaking in. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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This week-2 trade surge signal on the EPS is at least as strong as anything projected over the late winter/spring period (when the Niña was re-emerging).

To anyone still doubting Ms. La Niña… :lol: 

2FCD15DE-39A4-4B63-A9A8-BDD3B06E7B92.png

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11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Pretty agreeable 12z GFS run. Sunday is looking like a 95+ day regardless, but it's nice and short lived.

One or two low to mid 90s days are fine by me. Going to be humid though. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

One or two low to mid 90s days are fine by me. Going to be humid though. 

Yeah, the near record high soil moisture will keep DPs elevated and make significant mixing harder barring some pretty strong offshore flow. A soupier airmass but should help keep the peak temps down a bit from where they could be. Basically the exact opposite of last year.

Edited by BLI snowman
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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, the near record high soil moisture will keep DPs elevated and make significant mixing harder barring some pretty strong offshore flow. A soupier airmass but should help keep the peak temps down a bit from where they could be. Basically the exact opposite of last year.

Not to sound like Tim or Randy, but my yard is incredibly muddy, and damp, moreso than it typically is in the winter. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not to sound like Tim or Randy, but my yard is incredibly muddy, and damp, moreso than it typically is in the winter. 

You’re getting pretty close to a ban there buddy better keep yourself in check. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, the near record high soil moisture will keep DPs elevated and make significant mixing harder barring some pretty strong offshore flow. A soupier airmass but should help keep the peak temps down a bit from where they could be. Basically the exact opposite of last year.

If this setup had repeated at around the same time last year with the much lower soil moisture, how hot could we have been?

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1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

If this setup had repeated at around the same time last year with the much lower soil moisture, how hot could we have been?

PDX got to 97 out of a pretty pedestrian airmass on June 21 last year. That was when it was obvious that the following week's setup was going to be unbelievably brutal.

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15 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, the near record high soil moisture will keep DPs elevated and make significant mixing harder barring some pretty strong offshore flow. A soupier airmass but should help keep the peak temps down a bit from where they could be. Basically the exact opposite of last year.

Offshore looks pretty stout later Friday into Saturday.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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