June 2022 - Summer Begins

[TT-SEA]

On 6/17/2022 at 9:36 AM, Phil said:

Yes, or farther south.

The error is the attempt to retrograde and trap said ULL in the GOA. Makes no sense.

I was looking at the 00Z GFS and it appears that there will in fact be a trapped ULL in the GOA this weekend which is directly related to the warmth in the PNW and I thought back to this post from a few days ago.    Its a different piece of energy than the system that slides across the Canadian border later this week... but it does retrograde and get trapped.  

[TT-SEA]

Thankfully the GFS is probably 5-7 degrees too warm... but still pretty jarring to see given the last 3 months of struggling to even touch 70 in Seattle.  

[GHweatherChris]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Actually not if you want to get technical.   At least not in western WA.  Our trees don't need unusually cold, wet, and cloudy weather to thrive.  They are here based on climo and thrive in climo weather.   Everything exploded when it finally turned warm and humid in early June.   But I know you just want to take the opposite position to generate some fun for yourself.    Our trees would be even happier if it was 40 degrees for the entire warm season and the sun never came out and it rained every day.   Imagine how happy they would be.  

Don't want to get technical at all, just stating a fact, without hyperbole and lies like the post I am currently replying to.

Also, I don't post just for fun, I call things like I see em.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Don't want to get technical at all, just stating a fact, without hyperbole and lies like the post I am currently replying to.

Also, I don't post just for fun, I call things like I see em.

Sure Chris.   You know that what is best for the trees in western WA is unusually cold and wet weather.   Its much better than climo.    

[Phil]

I’m 100% certain the GFS is back-digging/trapping that ULL too much next week.

Perfect setup to exploit that bias, too.

[TT-SEA]

The last few run of the GFS have kept the incoming ULL farther offshore early next week.   The 00Z run continues this trend.    It cools down either way though as offshore flow over the weekend abates... but not as much.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The last few run of the GFS have kept the incoming ULL farther offshore early next week.   The 00Z run continues this trend.    It cools down either way though as offshore flow over the weekend abates... but not as much.

And it’s horses**t.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I’m 100% certain the GFS is back-digging/trapping that ULL too much next week.

Perfect setup to exploit that bias, too.

But if you go through the last 5 or 6 runs... its trended a little farther west with each run.    Its probably onto something.   Even the EPS has been trending in that direction.  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

And it’s horses**t.

Maybe.   Or maybe a weak ULL will actually move through by mid week and another one will move into the GOA at the same time like the 12Z ECMWF showed.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

But if you go through the last 5 or 6 runs... its trended a little farther west with each run.    Its probably onto something.   Even the EPS has been trending in that direction.  

It’s not onto anything.

The forward progression may slow a tad, but it won’t stop and reverse. Zero chance.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty sure the placement of the 4CH is what is driving all the different ULL scenarios.  If the 4CH is actually in the position and strength that the 00Z GFS shows then it will be deflecting systems. The GFS is probably overdoing the 4CH and has it too far west. Time will tell.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe.   Or maybe a weak ULL will actually move through by mid week and another one will move into the GOA at the same time like the 12Z ECMWF showed.

00z is the clearest example of GFS cutoff fetish I’ve ever seen. And that’s saying something.

[Deweydog]

ULL tonight be like:

 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

00z is the clearest example of GFS cutoff fetish I’ve ever seen. And that’s saying something.

Minor details though.   And its all related to the 4CH... which the GFS likely has being too strong and too far west.   Its not like the 12Z ECMWF had some massive storm over the PNW in that time frame.   

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Minor details though.   And its all related to the 4CH... which the GFS likely has being too strong and too far west.   Its not like the 12Z ECMWF has some massive storm over the PNW in that time frame.   

The erroneous 4CH solution is part of the ULL problem on the GFS. Blows up heights over the terrain and traps the ULL.

The 00z solution is so absurd it stings my eyes to look at it. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

The erroneous 4CH solution is part of the ULL problem on the GFS. Blows up heights over the terrain and traps the ULL.

The 00z solution is so absurd it stings my eyes to look at it. 

The reality probably won't be that meaningfully different though... part of the ULL will probably move inland and fall apart while another ULL forms in the GOA.   

[Phil]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

The reality probably won't be that meaningfully different though... part of the ULL will probably move inland and fall apart while another ULL forms in the GOA.   

I don’t think it will split and recycle in the GOA.

Probably will come in (mostly) as one element, with subsequent height rises offshore.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I don’t think it will split and recycle in the GOA.

Probably will come in (mostly) as one element, with subsequent height rises offshore.

Lots of moving parts... we have transitioned to a much different phase of model watching now.    The opposite of a strong jet stream plowing systems across the Pacific.    Now we have these little ULLs all over the place floating around like cottonwood balls in the air.    A little bit harder to tell where they are going!    Obviously the anchor highs are probably the most important elements now.

[Deweydog]

Could be one of those EXTREMELY RARE warm season situations where a deepening cutoff aids and abets a warm up and then eventually ejects to the north and east as a cooldown takes place.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Could be one of those EXTREMELY RARE warm season situations where a deepening cutoff aids and abets a warm up and then eventually ejects to the north and east as a cooldown takes place.

Yeah... that never happens.  

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 00Z GEM does not bring the offshore ULL inland through 240 hours either.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Kayla said:

Had a few sun breaks this afternoon and our blooming Lilacs loved it!

No sun, no bloom 

Showers AND sunshine bring flowers.

[Anti Marine Layer]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Lots of moving parts... we have transitioned to a much different phase of model watching now.    The opposite of a strong jet stream plowing systems across the Pacific.    Now we have these little ULLs all over the place floating around like cottonwood balls in the air.    A little bit harder to tell where they are going!    Obviously the anchor highs are probably the most important elements now.

They will drift around randomly like the blobs in Chip's Challenge. 

[GHweatherChris]

44 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sure Chris.   You know that what is best for the trees in western WA is unusually cold and wet weather.   Its much better than climo.    

What cold weather?  Just because it is a little below average doesn't mean it's cold.

[The Blob]

Once it cleared out the day was quite nice.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... the 00Z GEM does not bring the offshore ULL inland through 240 hours either.

It sort of does, actually. Solid marine push as it treks north.

At least the CMC solution is physically possible. I’ll cut off my d**k if the GFS solution verifies.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

It sort of does, actually. Solid marine push as it treks north.

At least the CMC solution is physically possible. I’ll cut off my d**k if the GFS solution verifies.

The ULL just spins offshore on the GEM... and actually looks like its moving a little north and west at the end of the run as the 4CH flexes it muscle.  

But the big news is the bet you just made!    Oh man this is going to be fun to track.   You have a lot riding on this one.   

[GHweatherChris]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

It sort of does, actually. Solid marine push as it treks north.

At least the CMC solution is physically possible. I’ll cut off my d**k if the GFS solution verifies.

Pics?

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

It sort of does, actually. Solid marine push as it treks north.

At least the CMC solution is physically possible. I’ll cut off my d**k if the GFS solution verifies.

On Thursday it will 29 years since Lorena sliced up John‘s manhood. I always suspected the true motive of that attack was a previously welched bet over GFS (possibly MRF) ineptitude.

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The ULL just spins offshore on the GEM... and actually looks like its moving a little north and west at the end of the run as the 4CH flexes it muscle.  

But the big news is the bet you just made!    Oh man this is going to be fun to track.   You have a lot riding on this one.   

I don't think he has " a lot" riding on it, maybe a little....?

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The ULL just spins offshore on the GEM... and actually looks like its moving a little north and west at the end of the run as the 4CH flexes it muscle.  

But the big news is the bet you just made!    Oh man this is going to be fun to track.   You have a lot riding on this one.   

I wouldn’t make that bet if I wasn’t certain of the outcome. Lol.

[TT-SEA]

I really need to know what verification of the GFS means?   Are we just saying that ULL next week does not actually come inland?  Is that all we need for Phil to lose the bet?   

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I don't think he has " a lot" riding on it, maybe a little....?

Want a pic?

[TT-SEA]

I think Phil has made a true weenie post this time.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I really need to know what verification of the GFS means?   Are we just saying that ULL next week does not actually come inland?  Is that all we need for Phil to lose the bet?   

I’m saying the ULL won’t bifurcate and retrograde azz-backwards like the GFS shows.

[TT-SEA]

This is a really bad bet by Phil.  He gains nothing if he is right except for satisfaction amongst a few weather geeks.  But the downside... wow.   

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think Phil has made a truly weenie post this time.

Lol I think I might be a little drunk. Will probably be lol’ing at myself re-reading this tomorrow.

Bet stands, though.

[Omegaraptor]

49 minutes ago, Phil said:

00z is the clearest example of GFS cutoff fetish I’ve ever seen. And that’s saying something.

Not gonna lie this is some pretty funny cutoff ULL movement.

[GHweatherChris]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think Phil has made a true weenie post this time.

Bar S level weenie.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lol I think I might be a little drunk. Will probably be lol’ing at myself re-reading this tomorrow.

Bet stands, though.

The 00Z GEM kind of shows it too... its definitely not moving inland and might be moving a little backwards at the end of the run.    Might be a nerve-racking few days for you buddy!