June 2022 - Summer Begins

[Phishy Wx]

if KGEG does not hit 80 tomorrow, it'll beat the record for latest 80

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

500mb pattern at hour 240 almost looks primed for another ULL to drop down 

You’re gonna like this 12z EPS run. 

[Doinko]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

EPS weeklies’ high temp matrix for Dallas TX.

This is suicide weather. Talk about hopeless.

Even worse:

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Even worse:

Worse yet:

 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

You’re gonna like this 12z EPS run. 

But I like the EPS too.   Go figure.   It shows my favorite summer pattern over the holiday weekend.   A ULL to the northwest with warm weather... but not hot.   Control run is basically the same.  

[MossMan]

OMG SQUEEEE!!!! A day that started in the 50’s and is now up to 71!!! And partly sunny!!!!!!!!!!!

[Phil]

Heat signal only lasts a few days on the 12z EPS.

Looks like some marine influence thereafter.

[Doinko]

Pretty breezy outside

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Heat signal only lasts a few days on the 12z EPS.

Looks like some marine influence thereafter.

Heat just brings crashes.   Too many extremes.   Stable is the way to go.

[Kayla]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Heat signal only lasts a few days on the 12z EPS.

Looks like some marine influence thereafter.

I can still get on board with this cause...still no massive 4CH!

What are your thoughts on the very early monsoon season starting up? Seems unusual for a La Niña.

[TT-SEA]

75 in North Bend and sunny.    Summer perfection today.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

Heat signal only lasts a few days on the 12z EPS.

Looks like some marine influence thereafter.

Absolutely gorgeous. 

[Phil]

14 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I can still get on board with this cause...still no massive 4CH!

What are your thoughts on the very early monsoon season starting up? Seems unusual for a La Niña.

The big high over the central US seems to be advecting moisture into NM/4-corners region, hence the early convection. I think? I’m not well versed in the SW US monsoon.

I think as we get later into July, that Central CONUS ridge is going to blow up massively, perhaps even influencing your weather up there in MT. Could be that New England and the westside PNW are the only places to escape it.

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Heat just brings crashes.   Too many extremes.   Stable is the way to go.

Unless you live in Texas. In which case heat brings more heat.

[Phil]

Death machine.

Upper 100s heat indices and no heat headlines. Those folks must be super acclimated to this s**t.

[TacomaWaWx]

69 in Tacoma 72 out here. 

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

The big high over the central US seems to be advecting moisture into NM/4-corners region, hence the early convection. I think? I’m not well versed in the SW US monsoon.

I think as we get later into July, that Central CONUS ridge is going to blow up massively, perhaps even influencing your weather up there in MT. Could be that New England and the westside PNW are the only places to escape it.

In the PNW... that usually means ULLs offshore or to the northwest.   Similar to what the EPS shows over the holiday weekend.   It's just an ideal set up because with the center of low pressure to the west... we don't get stuck in marine layer and drizzle like we do when it's to the east of us over Montana and Idaho.    But its also not hot.   We end up with lots of summer perfection days like today.   

[TacomaWaWx]

Euro shows a couple days in the mid 80s then a crash and some light precip chances…might get a little precip before the heat too we will see. 

[Meatyorologist]

3 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Pulling from notation way back when I took Calc, but would this be the derivative of the AAM with respect to time? If so, it seems like there would be some way better ways to explain it in layman’s terms.

3 hours ago, Phil said:

Correct, rate of change w/ respect to time. Sometimes referred to as AAM tendency.

I’m terrible at straightforward explanations, sorry.

Great stuff guys, love this college level met talk. NWS disc's will include lots of jargon but hardly any of the reasoning behind it. Little bits of logistics like this are how I even built my knowledge on the weather in the first place

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Euro shows a couple days in the mid 80s then a crash and some light precip chances…might get a little precip before the heat too we will see. 

Always add 3 or 4 degrees to the EPS output in the summer.    That means we peak in the upper 80s and then stabilize in the mid 70s.    Goldilocks weather.  I assume reality will be a little more variable in the long range but still really nice.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Always add 3 or 4 degrees to the EPS output in the summer.    That means we peak in the upper 80s and then stabilize in the mid 70s.    Goldilocks weather.  I assume reality will be a little more variable in the long range but still really nice.

Lows in the 50s.  

[TacomaWaWx]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Always add 3 or 4 degrees to the EPS output in the summer.    That means we peak in the upper 80s and then stabilize in the mid 70s.    Goldilocks weather.  I assume reality will be a little more variable in the long range but still really nice.

Typically since my location is near the water the temp outputs are pretty accurate on the euro so I don’t have to really add in anything for the cool bias. Go inland 5 miles and it’s a different story. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lows in the 50s.  

Pretty mild! 

[MossMan]

I just took my sweatshirt off for the first time since I think September. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I just took my sweatshirt off for the first time since I think September. 

You run much colder than me.   I have been in a t-shirt and shorts every time I have worked in the yard since April.   I would have been melting in a sweatshirt and jeans yesterday afternoon on the deck.  And it was only in the upper 60s.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just a few weeks until my summer vacation, after that's over it will be early August and we can start running out the clock on summer. 

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just a few weeks until my summer vacation, after that's over it will be early August and we can start running out the clock on summer. 

There are currently 71.54861111 days remaining in summer.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just a few weeks until my summer vacation, after that's over it will be early August and we can start running out the clock on summer. 

Hoping for an early spring next year.   I figure we are already running out the clock until the next warm season starts and hopefully it's good one this time!

[Cloud]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Heat signal only lasts a few days on the 12z EPS.

Looks like some marine influence thereafter.

The heat signal that's going up seems pretty decent though. Few places will hit 90+ so looks good for a couple of days.

[T-Town]

We seem to have gone from friends to roommates. 

[Deweydog]

War mout.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

59 minutes ago, Phil said:

Death machine.

Upper 100s heat indices and no heat headlines. Those folks must be super acclimated to this s**t.

I don't mind the heat and have a high tolerance for it. But if it's going to be that hot, it better be sunny most of the time. I'd rather live in San Antonio or Dallas than Houston.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

I don't mind the heat and have a high tolerance for it. But if it's going to be that hot, it better be sunny most of the time. I'd rather live in San Antonio or Dallas than Houston.

I don't have a high tolerance for the heat. Ever since the time I got dehydrated despite my best efforts to drink water regularly, then got a migraine from the dehydration, then got severe nausea from the migraine, then couldn't even keep water down due to the nausea, which made the dehydration worse, which made the migraine worse, which made the nausea worse (it was not fun, not in the least, and to make it worse I was alone in a remote area and not well enough to drive to the nearest hospital): I have made a policy of just putting things on hold and not doing much in hot weather.

[Alex_Snakes]

9 minutes ago, T-Town said:

We seem to have gone from friends to roommates. 

Wonder if those two were in our neighborhood last week. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Unless you live in Texas. In which case heat brings more heat.

Or here the last nine summers.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Nice looking EPS run with a decent crash following the heat spike. Hopefully the back end of this thing keeps getting trimmed back.

[T-Town]

22 minutes ago, Alex_Snakes said:

Wonder if those two were in our neighborhood last week. 

Could be. I didn’t realize you were in Tacoma and in the west end.

[Omegaraptor]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Heat signal only lasts a few days on the 12z EPS.

Looks like some marine influence thereafter.

Marine influence arrives just in time for my Sunriver trip!

[AlTahoe]

1 hour ago, Kayla said:

I can still get on board with this cause...still no massive 4CH!

What are your thoughts on the very early monsoon season starting up? Seems unusual for a La Niña.

1988 was very similar 

 

'In contrast, the Great Plains drought in the spring and summer 1988 coincided with an early monsoon that was also very intense."

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

1988 was very similar 

'In contrast, the Great Plains drought in the spring and summer 1988 coincided with an early monsoon that was also very intense."

Have family in New Mexico and the Southwest has been very dry. An early, intense monsoon would be most welcome there.