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June 2022 - Summer Begins


TT-SEA

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Ever since my kids watched the Muppets episode a few months ago that featured Alice Cooper they think he is the best ever! Haha 

It’s kind of funny how some of these guys start out as “freak out the old people” types and eventually become mainstream. Snoop Dog is a grandfatherly type who emcees the puppy bowl with Martha Stewart. 

Coming soon - Rage Against the Machine Super Bowl halftime show. 

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23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here are the new ECMWF weeklies.   I picture you scouring the models trying to find a way to make me worry that it will rain all of July and August.    But it will likely be quite nice for most of the next 3 months regardless of what the models show.  👍

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-z500_anom-1655942400-1655942400-1659916800-10.gif

Looks like the heat stays centered over the central US. Probably a modestly above average summer here, which qualifies as cool in this present climate. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like the heat stays centered over the central US. Probably a modestly above average summer here, which qualifies as cool in this present climate. 

Agreed.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

68 and mostly sunny here. 

68 and sunny here as well. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like the heat stays centered over the central US. Probably a modestly above average summer here, which qualifies as cool in this present climate. 

I’m more convinced in a cooler than average outcome now that the July/August MJO/GWO cycle has come into better focus.

Something like 2011 or 2001 seems like a good bet.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

I’m more convinced in a cooler than average outcome now that the July/August MJO/GWO cycle has come into better focus.

Something like 2011 or 2001 seems like a good bet.

July and August in 2001 were significantly wetter than normal at SEA.    I would bet money this July and August are drier than normal.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

July and August in 2001 were significantly wetter than normal at SEA.    I would bet money this July and August are drier than normal.  

I’ll take that bet. Wager $100?

August could be drier than average but July won’t be.

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15 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ll take that bet. Wager $100?

August could be drier than average but July won’t be.

Hmmmm... let me think about that.

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6 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

Boomer Tuesday? @Meatyorologist?

 

ecmwf-ensemble-KBFI-indiv_cape-5964000.png

I've been eyeing that. 18z GFS is more bullish, 12z GEM is fairly on point too.

The setup is typical, though difflusion aloft necessary for elevated convection will be centered too far to the north for a guaranteed outbreak.

My initial guess is that there will be a very nice accas field Monday afternoon into the evening, with storms popping up locally.

Expected environmental profile aloft is generous for any midlevel moisture and its potential CAPE. Fairly steep lapse rates between 900-450mb, steeper than the moist adiabatic curve, and following it above 450mb. If a robust enough midlevel moist layer develops, storms could have an excess of 1000 j/kg to work with... That is significant for this area... But only a potential.

We'll have to wait and see. We'll know more as time progresses.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

It still look like a fairly short lived heatwave. A 20 degrees crash from Monday to Tuesday for Seattle. 

And interestingly... all of the model show Tuesday being totally sunny as well.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Heading up to twisp tonight with the fam my dads getting married up there this weekend. Should be about the same temps wise but the sun always feels more brutal over there. Especially now.

I’ll post some pictures of the campsites we put in…will make a good spot to host the forum meetup 👍👍

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56 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

July and August in 2001 were significantly wetter than normal at SEA.    I would bet money this July and August are drier than normal.  

It takes like one soaking rain to give us an above average month this time of year. Outside of a July 1993 or 83 scenario it isn't even worth worrying about. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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On 6/22/2022 at 3:39 PM, TT-SEA said:

GFS for next Wednesday... summer everywhere on the North American continent and yet somehow winter in western WA and SW BC.    Once again Juneau is way more summery than Seattle.   😀

gfs-deterministic-namer-t2m_f_max6-6547200.png

Big improvement on today's runs for next Wednesday.   Does not look like winter for us now.    Now the new 18Z shows that for the 4th after the first 2 days of the holiday weekend are nice.   It probably change again.   Here is updated map for next Wednesday on the new 18Z GFS...

gfs-deterministic-namer-t2m_f_max6-6547200.png

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12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It takes like one soaking rain to give us an above average month this time of year. Outside of a July 1993 or 83 scenario it isn't even worth worrying about. 

Generally true.   But there are Julys that don't just feature one rain event but many.   Like 2016 and 2019 recently.   

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It sure looks like the switch got flipped this year.  Now the models show 0.1" or less precip over the next 10 days.  Might have a 1984 vibe.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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39 minutes ago, Cloud said:

It still look like a fairly short lived heatwave. A 20 degrees crash from Monday to Tuesday for Seattle. 

Kind of a classic scenario when a warm spell is couched in an overall cold regime.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It sure looks like the switch got flipped this year.  Now the models show 0.1" or less precip over the next 10 days.  Might have a 1984 vibe.

It sure seems like a 1984 flip right now.

But earlier this year when it was dry in early February you said we might have a 1985 situation here and then the faucet turned on and never stopped.   Cedar Lake is already well past their annual total for 1985 this year and it's not even half over!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

GFS is much warmer than its ensemble mean.

As usual.

B9216FAD-854D-4D60-8AB6-D89C8E35F6C7.gif

The GFS operational has a horrible warm bias in the summer since the last upgrade.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It sure seems like a 1984 flip right now.

But earlier this year when it was dry in early February you said we might have a 1985 situation here and then the faucet turned on and never stopped.   Cedar Lake is already well past their annual total for 1985 this year and it's not even half over!

I suppose I was more hoping for a 1985 type regime.  Maybe next year if the progression goes 1984 ish.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I suppose I was more hoping for a 1985 type regime.  Maybe next year if the progression goes 1984 ish.

That is what I am thinking... maybe now we are starting the 1984-1985 progression.   At least I can hope!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just for the record... here is the 12Z ECMWF for next Thursday.    Looks like the GFS operational to me.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-6633600.png

I’m all for it. Got relatives coming up from Cali during this timeframe for the 4th so it’ll be a good opportunity to showcase our perfect summer sunshine around here. 

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22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Generally true.   But there are Julys that don't just feature one rain event but many.   Like 2016 and 2019 recently.   

I'll have to check, we may have gotten a trace those years. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Currently following the 2022 analog VERY closely at my place...

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'll have to check, we may have gotten a trace those years. 

Rained on almost half the days up here both of those years in July.    And then you have years like 2009, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2021 when it rained on maybe 1 or 2 days in July.

July can be more variable up here.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

12AC058F-DC47-4D57-B320-24FA03F6A061.thumb.jpeg.dc0ae076003d5c5f786508d789a921a0.jpeg
Finally had to drag the portable AC out of the closet. We have the special broken wheel edition that requires the leveling book accessory. 

I don’t know why but I immediately thought of this when I looked at the pic. PLEASE tell me your name is Paulie and it’s your birthday…

 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Rained on almost half the days up here both of those years in July.    And then you have years like 2012, 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2021 when it rained on maybe 1 or 2 days in July.

In Portland we had measurable rain 6 days in July 2019 and 0.8" of precip, and 6 days in 2016 with 0.66" of precip (0.5" is normal). I think we must've been on the southern edge of those systems and not had as much rain as places farther north

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