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June 2022 - Summer Begins


TT-SEA

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15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The county we live in banned all fireworks this year.  Me bets a lot of people will thumb their nose at that.  

They even banned the fireworks for little kids.  Just sickening.

Yeah... if everyone is doing it then there isn't much they can do.  Hopefully that is the case.  And not to get political... but the Seattle police don't respond to assault calls now so one would assume they won't have the resources to track down people enjoying the 4th in their own yard.  So at least there it won't be an issue.

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3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It is encouraging to see that the 12z Euro operational was a big outlier in the 6-10 day range, though.

D4624F84-6658-4F9C-A513-31FB3B45EDDA.png

18z GFS too. Lots of outlier operational runs today.

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21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The county we live in banned all fireworks this year.  Me bets a lot of people will thumb their nose at that.  

They even banned the fireworks for little kids.  Just sickening.

Some areas throw the ban hammer if they believe people will be reckless around the 4th. Around here, it probably has no relevance to what the weather has been like. We get rain in the summer.

Huntington will fine people for using most types of fireworks. So far it looks like Ashland is looser on this, but who knows we probably pull some last second shinanigans. 

It should go without saying, exercise caution when around fireworks.. And if you're aiming a mortar at a tree, well that's your fault and shouldn't own fireworks in the first place. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Tonight could be the coolest night of this month for many places. Clear and chilly, lows in the mid 40s around KSEA and some scattered upper 30s in outlying valleys.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Tonight could be the coolest night of this month for many places. Clear and chilly, lows in the mid 40s around KSEA and some scattered upper 30s in outlying valleys.

We will see what happens here tonight we got down to 47 on 6/15 so it might be tough at my location…sure it’s a different story for most spots. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That’s my perfect climate. 

Of course, I had to look at the climate stats for there. Does look really nice. Surprised to see average snowfall only at 70" with 32" of yearly precip though.

Screen Shot 2022-06-23 at 9.49.24 PM.png

Highs are similar compared to Bozeman but of course our nighttime temps are a lot colder here. Quite a bit drier here yet a lot snowier. Also, I brought this up a while ago, but it's funny to see it on Wiki now. "Unlike most of the country, Bozeman has actually gotten cooler with the new 1991-2020 normals. Average highs dropped by 1.3°F (0.72°C), especially in spring and summer. It has also gotten wetter and snowier."

Screen Shot 2022-06-23 at 9.49.37 PM.png

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Thunderstorm dynamics are improved on the 00z for Monday night. Things are getting interesting.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Sounds like almost all of us think today was beautiful.   And most of us agree that a 75-degree summer day is heavenly.   Why so much arguing?  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Thunderstorm dynamics are improved on the 00z for Monday night. Things are getting interesting.

GFS looks goofy... shows thunderstorms on Monday evening in Seattle and cloud maps show clear skies at the same time. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I like that the crash day on Tuesday is sunny and in the low to mid 70s... much better than a thick marine layer and drizzle and 58.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS looks goofy... shows thunderstorms on Monday evening in Seattle and cloud maps show clear skies at the same time. 

All global scale models use some sort of wonky convective emulation technique, since they technically do not 'model' convection. That emulation does a fairly good job with convective coverage, even if no clouds are rendered per-se.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

I like that the crash day on Tuesday is sunny and in the low to mid 70s... much better than a thick marine layer and drizzle and 58.  

Would be pretty wild to go from 90s and blazing sun to 50s and drizzle. I'm not sure that has ever happened at KSEA... Will have to look at that manually.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

All global scale models use some sort of wonky convective emulation technique, since they technically do not 'model' convection. That emulation does a fairly good job with convective coverage, even if no clouds are rendered per-se.

Yeah... the precip maps are meaningful.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Would be pretty wild to go from 90s and blazing sun to 50s and drizzle. I'm not sure that has ever happened at KSEA... Will have to look at that manually.

But often we are socked in the day after the crash as the marine layer come roaring in... apparently won't be the case this time.   The ECMWF shows sunny conditions on Tuesday as well. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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GFS is a little deeper with that stationary ULL later next week.  Still would be dry for the Seattle area for the holiday weekend and fairly sunny at least on Saturday and Sunday with the center of the low to the west... but not as warm.     And it still shows a marine layer day on the 4th like its 18Z run.  This run shows 75, 73, 73 at SEA for the 3 day weekend.   We will see if the ECMWF goes in that direction.    Probably won't really know how these ULLs will play out for another few days until it gets inside of a week.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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One more observation on the GFS... it has  become much more progressive with the ULL that breaks down the warm spell over the last couple of days   As Phil was predicting when threatened to dismember himself.  😀

It seems like it corrects its ULL issues once it gets within a week.   The more progressive solution means Wednesday-Friday of next week are trending warmer and sunnier than once shown.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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39 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Would be pretty wild to go from 90s and blazing sun to 50s and drizzle. I'm not sure that has ever happened at KSEA... Will have to look at that manually.

I believe this happened in Late June/July of 1996. Maybe not a 40+F drop but D**n close.

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

One more observation on the GFS... it has  become much more progressive with the ULL that breaks down the warm spell over the last couple of days   As Phil was predicting when threatened to dismember himself.  😀

It seems like it corrects its ULL issues once it gets within a week.   The more progressive solution means Wednesday-Friday of next week are trending warmer and sunnier than once shown.   

That’s the one good thing about the GFS biases. They’re very predictable and it’s *very* easy to see when it’s happening. Where-as the Euro/CMC can be wrong but it can be in any direction, and thus it’s difficult for me to sniff it out sometimes.

This recent example was so clear it stung my eyes to look at. I wouldn’t make a bet like that if I wasn’t 100% certain of the outcome. :lol: 

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56 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Thunderstorm dynamics are improved on the 00z for Monday night. Things are getting interesting.

I hope we get some great regionwide thunderstorms!
September 2019 was really great in my location at least (and I think the Puget Sound as well). On the 8th a tornado was reported just a few miles away from me, and on the 9th, a station near me picked up 1.88 inches of rain in an hour, and 2.17 inches in total. There was also constant lightning with that storm.

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17 minutes ago, JBolin said:

I believe this happened in Late June/July of 1996. Maybe not a 40+F drop but D**n close.

I mean we didn’t go to drizzle and 50s last June but we did go from 106 to 68 in about 6 hours. That was pretty wild…38 degree swing. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Did some research on large one-day crashes. Criteria concerns high temps, and goes as follows: at coolest 90s the first day, and at warmest 60s the day after. There are no seasonal exclusions, any two day period which fits this criteria counts. Here are the days I dug up, alongside daily precip:

May:

5/21-5/22, 1963: 93°F to 67°F // 0.00" to 0.00"

5/31-6/1, 1964: 90°F to 63°F // Trace to 0.08"

5/23-5/24, 1969: 90°F to 67°F // 0.02" to 0.17"

June:

6/13-6/14, 1986: 90°F to 65°F // 0.00" to 0.14"

6/13-6/14, 2002: 94°F to 68°F // 0.00" to Trace

6/4-6/5, 2009: 91°F to 68°F // Trace to 0.00"

July:

7/22-7/23, 1959: 92°F to 68°F // 0.00" to 0.06"

7/29-7/30, 1960: 94°F to 67°F // 0.00" to 0.00"

August:

8/4-8/5, 1952: 92°F to 68°F // 0.00" to 0.00"

8/1-8/2, 1965: 90°F to 66°F // 0.00" to 0.02"

Honorable Mention:

7/23-7/24, 1991: 99°F to 70°F // 0.00" to 0.28"

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Was curious to go back and look at the June 2021 thread but it’s gone apparently along with several other months with interesting weather. What happened to them? 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Was curious to go back and look at the June 2021 thread but it’s gone apparently along with several other months with interesting weather. What happened to them? 

I was looking for that the other day as well... no idea. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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27 minutes ago, JBolin said:

I believe this happened in Late June/July of 1996. Maybe not a 40+F drop but D**n close.

I know what you are talking about and I was pretty surprised when I saw it too. It wasn't a one day drop, but rather a massive pattern change in mid July 1996. Went from 91F on the 14th to 59F on the 17th, one of the few July days with a high in the 50s. To have it happen four days after a 90 degree heatwave is pretty remarkable.

Interestingly, both days are at least 12F departed from their daily normals... In the opposite directions!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was looking for that the other day as well... no idea. 

Yeah there’s several months missing over the last 3 years. Another one I was curious to look back at was September 2020 but it’s also nowhere to be found. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Already in the 40’s! Brrr. 

Wow! That's really early. Might legitimately have to watch for frost in your area.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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I think it says a lot that these next few weeks with forcing that favors a “warm” pattern aren’t producing an insanely warm result.

In any of the 2013-2021 years, we’d be staring down the barrel of a nuclear heatwave right now. But not this year!

When the next -dAAMt/E-Hem MJO gets going later in July there could be some impressive cool anomalies if things continue as they have.

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One reason I wanted to look back at September 2020 was the absolute freak of nature east wind event on Labor Day. I know it led to major destruction that personally affected a few of us on the forum but the wind event itself was pretty wild. One of the most extreme weather events I’ve ever witnessed. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

One reason I wanted to look back at September 2020 was the absolute freak of nature east wind event on Labor Day. I know it led to major destruction that personally affected a few of us on the forum but the wind event itself was pretty wild. One of the most extreme weather events I’ve ever witnessed. 

And then not even a year later, temps in the mid 110s west of the Cascades. Those two events feel like the final acts of a penultimate decade of excessive torching; the final two parting gifts. Neither feel real.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

And then not even a year later, temps in the mid 110s west of the Cascades. Those two events feel like the final acts of a penultimate decade of excessive torching; the final two parting gifts. Neither feel real.

Yeah they were both very extreme weather events. We had wind gusts here 55+ mph straight out of the stampede gap that night…with waves of 4-5 feet here in commencement bay. They were bringing in cranes from the port of Seattle into Tacoma and one of the cranes washed right into Katie downs here on the waterfront that night. Quite a few docks on the west side of the bay broke that evening. 

35B8CBFD-E109-4091-B64C-521E53AC400C.jpeg

CC450CF3-F021-40A1-B062-94B831C5260F.jpeg

8655B65D-4439-46CF-B60E-4483190F15B1.jpeg

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Hard to believe a heatwave is coming for this weekend and early next week when it felt a bit chilly with the winds near the water this evening. Was over in West Seattle before sunset and it felt as such with dark clouds overhead. 

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