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June 2022 - Summer Begins


TT-SEA

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30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Don't know.   Pretty strange that I have had two depth finders agree perfectly with the lake buoy for years.     Really strange indeed.  

I don’t believe it for a millisecond.

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51 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

First person to make the Lakewater Preferences thread gets to drink with Tim tomorrow!

I’m going to call the King County sheriff’s department and warn them to be on the lookout for drunk boaters with a faulty depth finder on Lake Sammamish tomorrow.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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32 minutes ago, Phil said:

I don’t believe it for a millisecond.

Hilarious.   And you are wrong.    Water temp is 69.   And it will be warmer by tomorrow afternoon.  And everyone will be in the water and jumping off the boat.   And every boat around us will be doing the same.   👍

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

KPTV going with 100 now on Sunday. I think that's a little too high but wouldn't surprise me if they made it. I'm going with 93/98/92 for PDX.

7DayForecast-4.jpg.2c76eb4c9d042dd9294347d872a44f11.jpg

The NWS mentioned that there's a 30% chance of PDX reaching 100 degrees, so it is definitely reasonable. I agree with the 98 you gave though. I'm hoping we avoid 100 this summer but this heatwave is brief enough that I don't mind.

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3 hours ago, NWbyNW said:

I spotted this weird weather anomaly in the sky today.  Maybe someone knows what it is?  

DSCN0396.JPG

DSCN0397.JPG

I spotted these guys while working on my RV pad project at home this afternoon. The 2 were at a very high altitude while the other guy/gal was lower. 

4D8F66FB-45F8-4008-B425-8511B301D2CC.jpeg

2E3D029B-4DF6-40A1-9CA7-A87DF560B8B3.jpeg

F0B29FA6-7B59-4159-A1AB-200B74991D7A.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS continues to look more promising for convection on Monday evening. 

The NWS Portland AFD doesn't mention any chances of convection and they say that the location of the low on the operational GFS might be an outlier, what do the other models say? I'm hoping for some nice thunderstorms!

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

I spotted these guys while working on my RV pad project at home this afternoon. The 2 were at a very high altitude while the other guy/gal was lower. 

4D8F66FB-45F8-4008-B425-8511B301D2CC.jpeg

2E3D029B-4DF6-40A1-9CA7-A87DF560B8B3.jpeg

F0B29FA6-7B59-4159-A1AB-200B74991D7A.jpeg

I’m hoping to see some of this action on the 4th! I’ll be out on Anderson island that day but hopefully some military planes are out and about. Was loud AF when this guy flew over. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Warm evening…64 still. Atleast we should get down into the upper 50s with this heatwave. The June heatwave last year it wasn’t even safe sleeping in my apartment it was so hot just getting down to the low 70s overnight. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Models show the GOA / Aleutian ridge really flexing it's muscle going forward.  That going to make it very difficult for any major heat to move up from the SW United States for anything other than short bursts.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Warm evening…64 still. Atleast we should get down into the upper 50s with this heatwave. The June heatwave last year it wasn’t even safe sleeping in my apartment it was so hot just getting down to the low 70s overnight. 

This won't be anywhere near what that was thank God.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 hours ago, Phil said:

Unless that lake is *exceptionally* stable/poorly mixed, it is physically impossible for an average air temperature in the 50s to co-exist with water temperatures in the 70s over many weeks/months. Would violate multiple laws of thermodynamics.

I have to agree.  The lake in question is quite deep and large.  I see no way given the recent weather it could be that warm.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, Doiinko said:

The NWS mentioned that there's a 30% chance of PDX reaching 100 degrees, so it is definitely reasonable. I agree with the 98 you gave though. I'm hoping we avoid 100 this summer but this heatwave is brief enough that I don't mind.

New blog post by Mark tonight. He makes a good case for why PDX will hit 100. Late June 2006 and 2017 had similar setups and 850mb temps and they both got to 100.

 

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1 hour ago, Doiinko said:

The NWS Portland AFD doesn't mention any chances of convection and they say that the location of the low on the operational GFS might be an outlier, what do the other models say? I'm hoping for some nice thunderstorms!

I don't think models will have a firm grasp on moisture until we're within 48 hours. I'm looking forward to some of those 3km NAM runs, they should show some gaudy instability and hourly updates instead of every 3 to 6 hours.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I have to agree.  The lake in question is quite deep and large.  I see no way given the recent weather it could be that warm.

Jim... its not the entire lake.   Its the top layer.   But it is that warm.   My son just got home an hour ago from boating with his friends and they were all swimming for about an hour and then they took turns wake surfing.    My son said the lake was packed with people tubing and wakeboarding and the water was "nice".    No way you can swim that long if its not close to 70 degrees.  

Screenshot_20220624-185055_Chrome.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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33 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Tim might not want to look at the GEM. Stratiform drizzle on the 4th with highs struggling to break out of the low 60s.

Sad panda.   Some less than favorable trends on the evening runs.    I suspect the ECMWF will follow.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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79/45 today. Down to 57 currently. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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If the valley hits 100 Sunday we would likely be in the 92-93 range. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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A little bit more about Lake Sammamish... they say 75 degrees in July and August but we have seen 80 degrees on the buoy and on our depth finder numerous times in the last few years.   Average is probably 75-78 in the July and August and well into September in most years.   We are 6 days from July now and its currently 69... so running a little behind.    But this weekend will get it caught up.

LAK SAM.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00Z ECMWF is very different with the overall pattern later next week.   The hammer drop, massive trough coming down from the north is totally gone.    But a large ULL still manages to basically form in place in the GOA much like the 00Z GEM showed which eventually brings in clouds and rain by late Sunday into Monday.   July 4th is still day 10 on this run... so we probably have 3 more days of model swings for that time period.    I had a feeling the ECMWF would follow the GEM as they often go in the same direction.  

Good news is that Tuesday still looks basically sunny after the heat wave crash and Thursday - Saturday look warm and sunny.    So for the next 8 days there is only one fairly cloudy day shown on this run (next Wednesday).  Not too shabby!

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 hours ago, Phil said:

Forgot about that possibility. 😅

I think it’s just as likely Tim tampered with the buoy. 

It's mostly attributed to how shallow the water depth is. Doesn't take much directional heating to have an impact. I think its average depth (for a 7 mile long lake) is something like 58 feet.

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4 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Are we just going to skim over this??? This is the most eastside thing I've ever heard lmao. :lol:

image.jpeg

Lake Chelan, probably the best lake in the PNW. Crystal clear, super clean, easily accessible. Refreshing but not cold from Jun-Sep. Weather is almost always gorgeous. Extremely huge. But sure, while I'm jerking my leg free from milfoil in superheated urban runoff, I'll be sure to thank my lucky stars that I'm swimming in Lake Sammamish and not Lake Chelan, the clearly inferior lake ;)

Chelan is also the 3rd deepest lake in the US. Max depth is over 1,400 feet. 

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