June 2022 - Summer Begins

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 hours ago, Doiinko said:

PDX has hit 100 degrees in June in these years:
1942, 1982, 1992, 2006. 2008, 2016, 2017, 2021, and possibly 2022. A lot less common than I thought because of recent years, must've been nice to be able to go 40 years without hitting 100 in June!

Now it happens almost every year. My freaking word it’s 88 at SLE and PDX at noon. This insane, but apparently now an annual occurrence. Wonder how many separate heatwaves will hit 100 at SLE this year. 

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It will be interesting to see what effects it has on the ENSO region SSTAs.     Eric Snodgrass from Ag Weather talked about this in his latest update and said its a very impressive burst but it will probably have a negligible impact on SSTAs because of the warm sub-surface temps.    I know you refuted this theory.    I guess we will know in early July.

The effect on the thermocline will be greater (and more important) than the effect on SSTAs. But neither will be “negligible”.

What it will do is trigger an upwelling oceanic kelvin wave that’ll cool the subsurface (and SSTAs). In fact, this trade burst is timed perfectly to produce an upwelling wave because the previous downwelling wave that originally warmed the subsurface has already reached the EPAC.

Any chance we had at ENSO neutral is now gone. Could very well have a strong La Niña heading into fall/winter 2022/23.

[Meatyorologist]

Dear NAM... What, and I mean seriously what, in the actual hell is this.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Dear NAM... What, and I mean seriously what, in the actual hell is this.

Only thing I understood was MLCAPE: 2792 J/kg...
The NWS isn't on board though:

Quote

Operational GFS and 11 of the 30 members still insist on placing
some light convective QPF along the Cascade east slopes implying
thunderstorms. However, the remaining support has been dropped from
the Canadian and EC ensembles and operational models. Moreso, even
the operational GFS is showing nearly neutral or even a positive
tilt to the trough axis, minimizing the convective threat further.
/JBonk

 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

The effect on the thermocline will be greater (and more important) than the effect on SSTAs. But neither will be “negligible”.

What it will do is trigger an upwelling oceanic kelvin wave that’ll cool the subsurface (and SSTAs). In fact, this trade burst is timed perfectly to produce an upwelling wave because the previous downwelling wave that originally warmed the subsurface has already reached the EPAC.

Any chance we had at ENSO neutral is now gone. Could very well have a strong La Niña heading into fall/winter 2022/23.

Interesting.    I am going to just trust you on this one... I have no clue.

[TT-SEA]

84 at SEA at 1 p.m.

88 out here and a little breezy.

[Doinko]

PDX is at 89, HIO is at 88, UAO is at 91 and SLE is 91, and EUG is at 87

[TT-SEA]

EPS and control run strongly suggesting that we go into another warm pattern after the 4th... as Andrew mentioned earlier.  

I know Phil will say that is temporary as well.   Just like every other warm spell in our history.  

[Deweydog]

Wtg Salem!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

October can’t come soon enough. This is BULL SHEET.

[FroYoBro]

Just hit 90 here as well. Definitely not humid though. 

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS and control run strongly suggesting that we go into another warm pattern after the 4th... as Andrew mentioned earlier.  

I know Phil will say that is temporary as well.   Just like every other warm spell in our history.  

I expect the warm background to continue into mid-July.

Been saying that for at least a month now.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Apparently it is impossible not to hit 100 in June in this climate. 

[FroYoBro]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Apparently it is impossible not to hit 100 in June in this climate. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, FroYoBro said:

I’m trying... 

[Deweydog]

How’s everyone holding up?

[GHweatherChris]

90

[Phil]

Though there is an interesting inflection point developing within the EPS. A growing number of members (including the control run, pictured below) do not bring a full blown MJO back through the W-Hem, and instead have a faster/CCKW type solution with some low pass element remaining back in the IO.

If the CCKW route is realized (which *might* be dynamically favored under the -ENSO low pass), that may suggest a dampened dAAMt cycle and faster termination of the +TNH regime, but also a less anomalous -PNA/+NPO response in late July.

In other words, as Tim puts it, a more “goldilox” outcome with less extreme heat or extreme troughing, and instead a mildly above average 1st half July followed by a mildly troughy 2nd half.

Of course that outcome would be bad news for the Plains/Central US which would not receive as much of a break from the heat, where-as a full blown MJO wave could deliver some real troughing there.

Below is the aforementioned control run (CCKW) versus the EPS mean (more MJO component, but also some CCKW dominant members). Hard to pick out via the naked eye but it’s a clear distinction.

Interesting stuff.

[Phil]

Of course the MJO<—>mid-latitude connection is more complicated than I laid out above, and there are other forcings involved (both local and external). But that should suffice as a summary imo.

[Phil]

Perhaps a better visualization of the difference.

This is perturbation-1 vs the control run. P1 has a full blown MJO, where-as the control run has the faster/shallower CCKW dominating the evolution.

[MossMan]

4 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I mentioned it to randy 2 years ago, I have a sweet little 93 Bayliner with 100 hrs on boat and 20 hrs on new built up 4.3 v6, with new manifolds, alternator,  pumps basically everything is new. I rebuilt out drive also. I have 2 props. The boat is almost in perfect condition except for a couple spots on the seats. It's a 23ft cuddy cabin. Does 57 mph on GPS. Factory hp was 185 and this engine is about 325. I'll get some pics after I clean it up. 

That’s right I remember you talking about that boat! And wow you must have done some awesome mods to that 4.3 to get that hp out of it! I love those 4.3’s, I had 4 different trucks/midsize SUV’s with the 4.3 over the years and they were absolutely bullet proof along with the few with the 5.7’s (350) I have had in the past! 

[Anti Marine Layer]

We need climate control.

[Jbolin]

16 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

We need climate control.

Then upgrade your vehicle, DUH!

[NWbyNW]

Is it really supposed to be over 10F hotter on Monday?  Yikes.  

Current temp for me is 76F with a strong ocean breeze (thankfully).

[Kayla]

34 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

How’s everyone holding up?

I've been better. The weather is nice though. 34F this morning and 59F currently with not a cloud in the sky. 

[TacomaWaWx]

83 here. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

And there it is. EUG and Springfield with our first 90F of the year.

[GHweatherChris]

92

[NWbyNW]

75F - 76F. 

[NWbyNW]

Time for some heat maps.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

22 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

92

82°F here.

[TacomaWaWx]

17 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

75F - 76F. 

That’s not even bad! We’re lucky we have natural AC. 

[RentonHill]

Not a bad spot for a ceremony !

[T-Town]

47 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

And there it is. EUG and Springfield with our first 90F of the year.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

84 now as of 3pm. Probably will get to 85 maybe 86. 

[ShawniganLake]

Sunny and 85F.  I’m working today in this but I think it’s about perfect.  

[T-Town]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

84 now as of 3pm. Probably will get to 85 maybe 86. 

84 here as well but the breeze makes it tolerable. We were out on fox island earlier and it was 88 according to the car. 

[RentonHill]

86 at home in Renton…76 here which is perfect. But the sun is absolutely brutal

[TT-SEA]

93 degree air temp and 70 degree water temp... everyone has been swimming.   Almost prefer to be in the water. 

[Doinko]

Temps at 3pm

PDX: 92

HIO: 89

UAO: 91

SLE: 94

CVO: 91

EUG: 91