June 2022 - Summer Begins

[SilverFallsAndrew]

55 and sunny at Newport! Sounds like HEAVEN!

[MossMan]

89/57 on the day.

Currently 76. 

Hitting the lake tomorrow since I worked all day today in the driveway. The In-Laws Better bring even more sun and warmth from Arizona when they arrive in a few weeks with their travel trailer! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like most of the I-5 corridor north of Roseburg avoided the century mark today. A climate victory!

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like most of the I-5 corridor north of Roseburg avoided the century mark today. A climate victory!

Beaverton and Oregon City hit 100 though (on Mark Nelsen's current temps page), and according to a weather station near me and the car thermostat, we hit 101

[The Blob]

I wiened out and put in the window unit. I'm also pickling garlic scrapes.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like most of the I-5 corridor north of Roseburg avoided the century mark today. A climate victory!

We will take our small victories. 

[Phil]

26 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Holy shitt, the NAM verified *13F* too warm on DP's at KSEA. That is an ungodly error. It's not even a boundary situation either, this is a 13F error with the antecedent airmass.

NAM often fails to sufficiently mix out low level moisture. I’ve seen some ungodly dewpoint projections out here during heatwaves.

[Cascadia_Wx]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We will take our small victories. 

Most the time it’s all we can hope for.

[NWbyNW]

40 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Holy shitt, the NAM verified *13F* too warm on DP's at KSEA. That is an ungodly error. It's not even a boundary situation either, this is a 13F error with the antecedent airmass.

So what does that mean for people who don't understand what you just said?    Explain it as if talking to a 1st grader. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

14 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Most the time it’s all we can hope for.

Could be our year?

[TT-SEA]

Anyone else get a Google authenticator message when they went to this site?

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 hours ago, NWbyNW said:

Flowers have been happy recently.  We are at 79F.  Yesterday we topped out at 79F-80F.  Today will be the same it seems.  It's actually cooler feeling today with more of a cool breeze blowing in.  It really helps bite the heat.  Got a single fan running for all it's worth too.  

The last few days haven’t zapped the flowers too bad down here. Everything’s looking pretty healthy aside from some hydrangeas I’ve seen. They seem to be very sensitive.

Hoping there was little to no ecosystem damage with this one. I was thinking some plants and trees might be more vulnerable right now thanks to the slow start to vegetation this spring (more tender new growth than usual for this late) and the sudden shift from cool to hot. Plus I think a lot of annuals are still recovering to some degree from last June. Luckily there seems to be a pretty sharply cutoff somewhere in the upper 100s were plant damage starts to be a much bigger issue, just judging from the damage patterns observed last year.

[NWbyNW]

3 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Anyone else get a Google authenticator message when they went to this site?

 

Here is your answer. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Could be our year?

Need Jim to weigh in on this one.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like PDX missed 100 today. Nice to see.

98/62 day here. We are officially over the heatwave hump. Went swimming on the Washougal this afternoon. 

I don't think the flowers and plants can tell the difference between 99 and 100.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, NWbyNW said:

So what does that mean for people who don't understand what you just said?    Explain it as if talking to a 1st grader. 

The dewpoint (DP) is the temperature at which water in the air begins to condense, or precipitate, out of the air, forming into clouds and dew/frost and rain/snow/hail. For instance, if the actual air temperature is 70F and the DP is 60F, and you lower the actual temperature to 60F, water will begin to condense out. And if you keep lowering the actual temperature below the dewpoint (60F), more and more water will be forced out of the air, exactly like water being wrung out of a squeezed sponge. (A side technical note, as you keep wringing out water like that, the DP will also drop in tandem with the air temp, since water was lost.)

The dewpoint is essentially a measure of how much water is in the air. Humidity is how much water there is in the air, relative to the air temp.

The NAM was predicting DP's in Seattle to be around 60F, while in actuality they were in the mid 40s. That kind of error is astronomically bad, and means gallons more water vapor per square meter of air. In a convective situation that would mean the difference between severe clear and a huge thunderstorm outbreak.

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

I don't think the flowers and plants can tell the difference between 99 and 100.

They can definitely tell the difference between 100 and 116. 

[Meatyorologist]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Anyone else get a Google authenticator message when they went to this site?

3 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Just a heads up on a couple changes in the name of site security:

1. All users will now need to sign in with their email address, not display name. This will take effect next time you log out/back in. Just a bit more secure using your email than using a public-facing display name.

2. Any admin/staff accounts will now need to have multi-factor authentication setup on them. This is done through Google Authenticator integration, but can be used with any 2FA app (I use Authy, for example). You should be prompted to set that up soon, if you haven't already. Again, this is just locking down the higher privileged accounts for better security.

Give a shout if anyone has any issues.

 

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The dewpoint (DP) is the temperature at which water in the air begins to condense, or precipitate, out of the air, forming into clouds and dew/frost and rain/snow/hail. For instance, if the actual air temperature is 70F and the DP is 60F, and you lower the actual temperature to 60F, water will begin to condense out. And if you keep lowering the actual temperature below the dewpoint (60F), more and more water will be forced out of the air, exactly like water being wrung out of a squeezed sponge. (A side technical note, as you keep wringing out water like that, the DP will also drop in tandem with the air temp, since water was lost.)

The dewpoint is essentially a measure of how much water is in the air. Humidity is how much water there is in the air, relative to the air temp.

The NAM was predicting DP's in Seattle to be around 60F, while in actuality they were in the mid 40s. That kind of error is astronomically bad, and means gallons more water vapor per square meter of air. In a convective situation that would mean the difference between severe clear and a huge thunderstorm outbreak.

Any chance for some thunderstorms west of the Cascades after the heatwave? The NWS isn't mentioning anything in the AFD so I'm not really hoping for much.

[MossMan]

Already down into the 60’s. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

20 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The last few days haven’t zapped the flowers too bad down here. Everything’s looking pretty healthy aside from some hydrangeas I’ve seen. They seem to be very sensitive.

Hoping there was little to no ecosystem damage with this one. I was thinking some plants and trees might be more vulnerable right now thanks to the slow start to vegetation this spring (more tender new growth than usual for this late) and the sudden shift from cool to hot. Plus I think a lot of annuals are still recovering to some degree from last June. Luckily there seems to be a pretty sharply cutoff somewhere in the upper 100s were plant damage starts to be a much bigger issue, just judging from the damage patterns observed last year.

Pretty curious how the western hemlocks will fare long term in particular. Some lowland ones took heavy damage last June. Even large ones. Large swaths of dead, sunburnt foliage especially on south and west facing sides.  I was pleasantly surprised to see most of them come back with new green growth this spring.

Time will tell if another heatwave during the most powerful sun angles of the year will be a shock to them, but fortunately temperatures were well below what I believe to be their damage threshold this time around. Probably helps quite a bit that it’s been quite wet the last few months too. High soil moisture makes the heavy transpiration required on hot days much less stressful for trees and other plants.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Doiinko said:

Any chance for some thunderstorms west of the Cascades after the heatwave? The NWS isn't mentioning anything in the AFD so I'm not really hoping for much.

Not in Oregon, no. There will be no moisture left, unfortunately. There's a vague chance north of Olympia but the real threat will be relegated to the north Cascades into British Columbia.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Not in Oregon, no. There will be no moisture left, unfortunately. There's a vague chance north of Olympia but the real threat will be relegated to the north Cascades into British Columbia.

Maybe we'll see something later on this summer/fall! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

26.2°C/79.1°F. It’s just not cooling off that quickly this evening. I have a feeling it’s going to really bake tomorrow.

[The Blob]

32 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The last few days haven’t zapped the flowers too bad down here. Everything’s looking pretty healthy aside from some hydrangeas I’ve seen. They seem to be very sensitive.

Hoping there was little to no ecosystem damage with this one. I was thinking some plants and trees might be more vulnerable right now thanks to the slow start to vegetation this spring (more tender new growth than usual for this late) and the sudden shift from cool to hot. Plus I think a lot of annuals are still recovering to some degree from last June. Luckily there seems to be a pretty sharply cutoff somewhere in the upper 100s were plant damage starts to be a much bigger issue, just judging from the damage patterns observed last year.

My neighbors tree that lost two big branches in the April snow storm lost another branch the other day. I think it's giving up on living. 

[Doinko]

89 degrees right now...

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, The Blob said:

My neighbors tree that lost two big branches in the April snow storm lost another branch the other day. I think it's giving up on living. 

This big tree near my house just completely fell over in November. I don't recall it being that windy here at least that month, but the snow/ice storm in Feb, dry spring/summer and the heatwave in June might've played a role.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Topped out at 88, it was still 81 about an hour ago (8:20), the temp is dropping off pretty quick now, as its down to 72.

Mosquitoes are out of control this year.  I've been getting eaten alive any time I step outside, and it doesn't help that I have a storm water retention pond right behind my house.  Thinking about getting one of those UV bug zappers that were very common in the south when I was growing up.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 78F. Much better out there already.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Down to 78F. Much better out there already.

I'm still 10 degrees warmer sadly

[SilverFallsAndrew]

32 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Pretty curious how the western hemlocks will fare long term in particular. Some lowland ones took heavy damage last June. Even large ones. Large swaths of dead, sunburnt foliage especially on south and west facing sides.  I was pleasantly surprised to see most of them come back with new green growth this spring.

Time will tell if another heatwave during the most powerful sun angles of the year will be a shock to them, but fortunately temperatures were well below what I believe to be their damage threshold this time around. Probably helps quite a bit that it’s been quite wet the last few months too. High soil moisture makes the heavy transpiration required on hot days much less stressful for trees and other plants.

Up here I am noticing no damage to the trees this spring/ early summer. Usually the following spring is when the conifers die. 2015-2020 it happened a lot sadly. 
 

Interestingly my forays into the Santiam canyon have reviewed the maples are incredibly resilient. Many maples that had appeared completely burned are starting to come back. The edges of the burn scar are healing very quickly. 

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS is having nothing to do with the favorable 12Z ECMWF solution for 4th.    

It will be interesting to see if the 00Z ECMWF sticks to its guns.    The 00Z GFS brings much more energy inland on Sunday into Monday... although it is turning nicer from south to the north during the day on the 4th and its warm again on Tuesday.     GFS cut-off bias coming into play?    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 72, dropping off much quicker than last night. 

[NWbyNW]

52 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The dewpoint (DP) is the temperature at which water in the air begins to condense, or precipitate, out of the air, forming into clouds and dew/frost and rain/snow/hail. For instance, if the actual air temperature is 70F and the DP is 60F, and you lower the actual temperature to 60F, water will begin to condense out. And if you keep lowering the actual temperature below the dewpoint (60F), more and more water will be forced out of the air, exactly like water being wrung out of a squeezed sponge. (A side technical note, as you keep wringing out water like that, the DP will also drop in tandem with the air temp, since water was lost.)

The dewpoint is essentially a measure of how much water is in the air. Humidity is how much water there is in the air, relative to the air temp.

The NAM was predicting DP's in Seattle to be around 60F, while in actuality they were in the mid 40s. That kind of error is astronomically bad, and means gallons more water vapor per square meter of air. In a convective situation that would mean the difference between severe clear and a huge thunderstorm outbreak.

Thank you so much!  I really appreciate that.  I'm trying to learn more, but you all seem like such experts and I'm ages behind on a lot of stuff.  Thanks again! 

[NWbyNW]

I don't know if my station ever hit 80F today or not, but I do know it hit 79F.  So that may have been the high.  I see other stations in Everett hit 82F.  It is currently 68F.  I wish it was cooling off faster.  So pumped for that marine air tomorrow afternoon/evening!  Sunset was okay tonight, not as good as last night in my humble opinion.  

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Thank you so much!  I really appreciate that.  I'm trying to learn more, but you all seem like such experts and I'm ages behind on a lot of stuff.  Thanks again! 

I love talking about this kind of stuff so it's not a burden in the slightest

And if there's anything I've learned over time, it's that I'm not nearly an expert by any means. Just starting out vector calc, literally the tinker toys of what I'll have to do in uni, and I feel like my eyes are melting. But it's very flattering 

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The last few days haven’t zapped the flowers too bad down here. Everything’s looking pretty healthy aside from some hydrangeas I’ve seen. They seem to be very sensitive.

Hoping there was little to no ecosystem damage with this one. I was thinking some plants and trees might be more vulnerable right now thanks to the slow start to vegetation this spring (more tender new growth than usual for this late) and the sudden shift from cool to hot. Plus I think a lot of annuals are still recovering to some degree from last June. Luckily there seems to be a pretty sharply cutoff somewhere in the upper 100s were plant damage starts to be a much bigger issue, just judging from the damage patterns observed last year.

Grass withers and flowers fade. It's part of the natural cycle.

[Meatyorologist]

Wednesday starting to look like quite the chilly day in the central Sound. Low level convergence w/ an occlusion-like feature wrapping around the parent low. Could be a drizzly day mostly spent in the 50s for Seattle. Sounds like amazing relief after this weekend.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Wednesday starting to look like quite the chilly day in the central Sound. Low level convergence w/ an occlusion-like feature wrapping around the parent low. Could be a drizzly day mostly spent in the 50s for Seattle. Sounds like amazing relief after this weekend.

Do you have a WB subscription?    The ECMWF surface maps are invaluable.  

The ECMWF with its cool bias is showing upper 60s that day.    I don't think its going to be drizzling and in the 50s all day in Seattle.  

 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Do you have a WB subscription?    The ECMWF surface maps are invaluable.  

The ECMWF with its cool bias is showing upper 60s that day.    I don't think its going to be drizzling and in the 50s all day in Seattle.  

 

It's split into two camps, one that favors the occlusion band, and another that doesn't. The Euro and GFS mix things out and bring highs around 70, while the NAM, GEM/RGEM, and ICON wrap that occlusion band around, favoring highs in the low 60s with intermittent rainfall.

My instincts tell me to blindly follow the Euro into oblivion, but it's not so simple. Occlusion bands are notoriously difficult to forecast, and meso models (including NAM and RGEM) tend to pick up on them a bit better than global scale models.

I'm for now going to side with a mix between the two. I figure the Euro and GFS are underplaying this feature, while the meso models are also probably overvaluing its extent, and likely modeling the whole pattern transition and establishment a bit wrong compared to the other two big kahunas. I'll go with partly to mostly sunny and highs in the mid-upper 60s. For all the shit we give the Euro for consistently underestimating high temperatures, it may very well verify nicely on Wednesday. Just my two cents tho, and this is a complicated fcst with a 3 day lead time. Could be wrong in either direction.

My previous post was addressing the reappearance of that occlusion feature after the GFS teased with it a few days ago. If it's reappearing now, there could be some validity to it. Or the GFS resolved some issue long ago w/ better data that the other models have yet to work out due to worse data/less resources.