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June 2022 - Summer Begins


TT-SEA

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I honestly don't care that much.   There is a station literally down the road from my house in my neighborhood.   And lots of them in North Bend.    I know what is happening here.  

Feel like citing rainfall statistics 5 times a day would be a bit more fun if it was your own statistics. But North Bend has lots of data and you are just a 3 minute walk from the valley floor so your data should be similar.

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... the GFS is not that bad within 7 day.    The 00Z ICON looks quite similar for next Monday.     The stuff beyond day 7 looks silly on the GFS.   But we don't need that ULL to back up that much to have decent weather either.  

I’m willing to put my junk on the line again. This is so obvious it hurts to look at.

And the GFS scores the worst of all the global numerical models inside 5 days at 500mb. We’d be better off without it.

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It wants to put lows into the gulf of alaska so bad it literally pulls it in the opposite direction. Why on earth is this model so janky

Just proof the earth is trying to spin in the other direction. :) :) :) 

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Just now, Omegaraptor said:

Feel like citing rainfall statistics 5 times a day would be a bit more fun if it was your own statistics. But North Bend has lots of data and you are just a 3 minute walk from the valley floor so your data should be similar.

I don't have 125 years of history here in my backyard.     Big difference.  

Saying it was wetter than 2021 is not too impressive.   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... the GFS is not that bad within 7 days.    The 00Z ICON looks quite similar for next Monday.     The stuff beyond day 7 looks silly on the GFS.   But we don't need that ULL to back up that much to have decent weather either.  

ICON looks great. 

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5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

No thunder here, at least not yet.

May see some in a few days in New Mexico. Unfortunately that trip is because suddenly it’s looking like my mother is not going to be around much longer.

So sorry. Will be praying for the best for your family. 

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1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Thanks. She's 92, so something like this is not a total surprise. But you still never expect it when it finally happens.

That's a good life. I hope I live to 92.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m willing to put my junk on the line again. This is so obvious it hurts to look at.

And the GFS scores the worst of all the global numerical models inside 5 days at 500mb. We’d be better off without it.

Oh yeah... the stuff beyond day 7 is silliness and won't happen.  Its still in the ballpark on day 7 though.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Thanks. She's 92, so something like this is not a total surprise. But you still never expect it when it finally happens.

A mom is a special part of our lives, I pray it is peaceful and she is surrounded by as many loved ones as possible.

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

ICON looks great. 

Dry Monday with a large ULL to the west.    Same general pattern as the GFS shows.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It wants to put lows into the gulf of alaska so bad it literally pulls it in the opposite direction. Why on earth is this model so janky

I don’t know what the heck is wrong with it, but cannot recall any global model spitting out such ridiculous solutions inside week-1, ever. Not even 15 years ago. Closest thing I can remember is the DGEX (which was a decade ago and more of an experimental extension of the NAM).

There’s something seriously wrong with this model.

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7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

No thunder here, at least not yet.

May see some in a few days in New Mexico. Unfortunately that trip is because suddenly it’s looking like my mother is not going to be around much longer.

So sorry to hear that... very sad.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

No thunder here, at least not yet.

May see some in a few days in New Mexico. Unfortunately that trip is because suddenly it’s looking like my mother is not going to be around much longer.

Oh gosh dude, I’m so sorry. Sending a prayer your way. 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Oh yeah... the stuff beyond day 7 is silliness and won't happen.  Its still in the ballpark on day 7 though.

You went from the 4th doesn't matter just a few days ago to actually getting stressed about it all of a sudden due to how much you keep bringing it up.  Didn't you say something about it doesn't matter since everyone has to work the next day this year...  

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7 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

You went from the 4th doesn't matter just a few days ago to actually getting stressed about it all of a sudden due to how much you keep bringing it up.  Didn't you say something about it doesn't matter since everyone has to work the next day this year...  

Yep... we will probably do fireworks on Saturday in Sammamish    But I have a bunch of people asking me about that day and I would like to give them good news.   Interestingly... none of them are hoping and praying its raining and cold.  Very strange.   I assumed everyone wants miserable weather on a holiday based on the comments here.   But the real world seems to be quite a bit different.   😀

I have zero confidence at this point... so won't be telling them anything yet.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yep... we will probably do fireworks on Saturday in Sammamish    But I have a bunch of people asking me about that day and I would like to give them good news.   Interestingly... none of them are hoping and praying its raining and cold.  Very strange.   I assumed everyone wants miserable weather on a holiday based on the comments here.   But the real world seems to be quite a bit different.   😀

I have zero confidence at this point... so won't be telling them anything yet.  

Tell them the Sun will rise on the 4th and it will also set. Whether or not they get to see it is another story. 😏

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The 00Z GEM is also trending warmer and drier for Monday over the past 3 runs.     The 00Z GEM is basically dry with a high around 70 which is not too bad.

gem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_28.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 00Z GEM is also trending warmer and drier for Monday over the past 3 runs.     The 00Z GEM is basically dry with a high around 70 which is not too bad.

gem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_28.png

The 00z CMC is cooler than the 12z, actually. No warm trend.

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3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Down to 59 here now, and we finally have a good breeze!!

Kinda crazy this is 2 years in a row that we push up the mercury on the same day. Not so much for your location today but you did hit 100 over the weekend 

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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

The 00z CMC is cooler than the 12z, actually. No warm trend.

00Z run last night showed 64 in Seattle on Monday... the 12Z run showed 68... 00Z run shows 70. 

Trending warmer.   👍

gem-all-washington-t2m_f-6979200 (1).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z run last night showed 64 in Seattle on Monday... the 12Z run showed 68... 00Z run shows 70. 

Trending warmer.   👍

gem-all-washington-t2m_f-6979200 (1).png

70 for Salem is very cool for 4th of July. About 12 degrees below average. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z run last night showed 64 in Seattle on Monday... the 12Z run showed 68... 00Z run shows 70. 

Trending warmer.   👍

gem-all-washington-t2m_f-6979200 (1).png

Here’s 00z vs 12z on July 4th.

56673BDE-B66D-4DE1-964F-815DA1B2747D.gif

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Here’s 00z vs 12z on July 4th.

56673BDE-B66D-4DE1-964F-815DA1B2747D.gif

 

I just showed you the high temp map.  You are posting a period that includes the overnight lows.   I can show you previous runs as well.  64, 68, and 70 the last 3 runs.    It's trending warmer and doesn't shown any rain that day now.   No question it's improving.   But don't worry... the ECMWF will show 61 with rain all day and it will be right!

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I just showed you the high temp map.  You are posting a period that includes the overnight lows.   I can show you previous runs as well.  64, 68, and 70 the last 3 runs.    It's trending warmer and doesn't shown any rain that day now.   No question it's improving.   But don't worry... the ECMWF will show 61 with rain all day and it will be right!

And I’m showing you that the airmass is colder and most locations trended cooler. Not a “warm trend” at all.

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Down to 61 now. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Phil said:

And I’m showing you that the airmass is colder and most locations trended cooler. Not a “warm trend” at all.

Dude.   I don't care at all about the air mass or the mountains or anywhere but the Seattle area.   It's trending warmer.   Whatever is changing is better for the Seattle area.  👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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