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June 2022 - Summer Begins


TT-SEA

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Down to 57 in Shelton…31 degree drop over 7 hours. 66 here now…25 degree drop in 6 hours. 

We’re still at the warm spot here. Which was kinda expected. 72 BFI, 70 SEA. -18 and -20 respectively in 6 hours. 

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Just now, Cloud said:

We’re still at the warm spot here. Which was kinda expected. 72 BFI, 70 SEA. -18 and -20 respectively in 6 hours. 

Central sound and Portland metro are holding out still lol. Pretty decent marine push here overall feels great outside now. Might even get a midnight low tonight. 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Dude.   I don't care at all about the air mass or the mountains or anywhere but the Seattle area.   It's trending warmer.   Whatever is changing is better for the Seattle area.  👍

You’ll have a better idea of what to expect if you take the bigger picture into account.

Models bounce around at isolated spots all the time.

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Operational is a warm outlier for the 4th. Sorry Tim. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Phil said:

You’ll have a better idea of what to expect if you take the bigger picture into account.

Models bounce around at isolated spots all the time.

To some degree.   But I also know the Seattle area weather intimately well and certain troughy patterns can be pretty nice (warmer and sunnier).   Devil is in the details.   Like I said... the ECMWF will probably be even worse and nothing the GFS or GEM or ICON shows will matter.    But I am pretty tired and probably won't make it another hour just to be disappointed again.  😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Operational is a warm outlier for the 4th. Sorry Tim. 

As expected.   It was surprisingly warm.   I am just hoping we can pull out a partly sunny day in the low 70s at this point.   And not low 60s with rain like some runs have shown.  Even earlier GFS runs today showed that.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

As expected.   It was surprisingly warm.   I am just hoping we can pull out a partly sunny day in the low 70s at this point.   And not low 60s with rain like some runs have shown.  Even earlier GFS runs today showed that.  

The bad news regardless is that the 4th falls on a Monday this year so everyone has to work next day anyway. Just enjoy it over the weekend instead. 

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Just now, Cloud said:

The bad news regardless is that the 4th falls on a Monday this year so everyone has to work next day anyway. Just enjoy it over the weekend instead. 

Sunday looks wet on most runs.   It would be nice if Monday can rebound a little.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

People who wish for the 4th to be 60s and wet are the outliers, and I like a real marine layer come in and post stuff to annoy them. Except they love the real marine layer, which most people don't. 

I have never heard someone wish for a cold and rainy 4th in my life.   Like ever.  In all my decades on this planet.   Except on here.   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Down to 58F now. Since the heatwave is over I guess I can go back to watching for rain. Euro has between 0.25" and 0.5" before the end of the month here. Could actually get me close to 5" still.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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ECMWF has been trending cooler with each day this week.  Starting to look the marine layer might actually lock in.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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A drop of 7F at SEA over the last hour.  Nice push!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Dude.   I don't care at all about the air mass or the mountains or anywhere but the Seattle area.   It's trending warmer.   Whatever is changing is better for the Seattle area.  👍

It's not trending warmer, it's just more mixed than its previous run. The airmass is objectively colder. There could be a stratoform rainband with thicknesses above 564dm and it could still be a -11F kind of day.

Kind of like how weak ridging with strong onshore flow will bring 55F drizzle, while a potent trough with sunny skies will bring 65F spotty showers. Difference is, the latter is more likely to produce a cooler outcome than the former. Waffling between mixed and non-mixed thermal profiles is the hallmark of long range variability. It might tend towards a mixed outcome with time, but the real, current trend is clear: the 4th is looking more unsettled than not.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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KSEA plummeted to 61F right before at the 12am update. No midnight high today! 🥶

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Cooling slowly but surely here. Down to 67 now. Not nearly as robust of an evening marine push as expected up this way. Seems like cool air has been slowest to push into the east Portland metro. Lots of 50s and low 60s not far to the north, west and south. Should just be a matter of time.

8412CDE2-42E3-4573-A728-ECBB5854D0C2.jpeg

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I have never heard someone wish for a cold and rainy 4th in my life.   Like ever.  In all my decades on this planet.   Except on here.   😀

You yourself not more than a few days ago said that this years 4th shouldn't matter since most people have to work the next day, so there's that.  

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SEA plunged another 6 in the past hour.  13 in two hours.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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17 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

All I have is a vial that measures rain and has a mercury thermometer lol.

Keep that mercury thermometer.  They are very hard to get anymore.  The mercury substitutes suck balls in the liquid filled thermometers.  

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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48 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I have never heard someone wish for a cold and rainy 4th in my life.   Like ever.  In all my decades on this planet.   Except on here.   😀

Yeah, it always takes me time to mentally adjust when I come on this forum. In real life, when people say the forecast looks “great” they always mean warm (but not too hot) and sunny. On this forum, over half the posters mean cold and wet by “great” or when they say the models have “favorable trends.” I think we need a preference cheat sheet so noobs can interpret.

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5 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

I think we still see a decent amount of afternoon sun Thursday through Saturday.

Maybe... but the ECMWF is showing less with each run and its usually right with thus stuff.   Big difference between the GFS and ECMWF for that period.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

Yeah, it always takes me time to mentally adjust when I come on this forum. In real life, when people say the forecast looks “great” they always mean warm (but not too hot) and sunny. On this forum, over half the posters mean cold and wet by “great” or when they say the models have “favorable trends.” I think we need a preference cheat sheet so noobs can interpret.

And they like to pretend their opinion is just the norm of course... who would want sunny, pleasant weather on a holiday when you could have pouring rain?   😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here comes the marine layer cresting the ridge...

20220628_061011.jpg

Clear and breezy here. I’m sure we will be swallowed up shortly though. 🤢🤮

3F3009C7-0B5A-448F-A3BC-D4DE2D87BF92.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Do I sleep? Yes, sometimes. Little man wanted to party early this morning. Now he is back to sleep so might as well get some things done before he gets up again. 
 

Currently 50 with clouds. There are some breaks in the layer though, should be a nice day. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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32 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

Yeah, it always takes me time to mentally adjust when I come on this forum. In real life, when people say the forecast looks “great” they always mean warm (but not too hot) and sunny. On this forum, over half the posters mean cold and wet by “great” or when they say the models have “favorable trends.” I think we need a preference cheat sheet so noobs can interpret.

I used to love doing that to my ex (he loved sunny hot weather, I never have).

“Weather’s supposed to improve Wednesday.”

“Huh? I heard it was going to get a lot cooler and rain.”

“Yes — that’s how it’s going to improve.”

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Tufts of stratus pushing through from the SW with sfc winds matching and temps in the mid 50s amidst sunshine. Easily one of the stronger marine pushes of this last decade.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Tufts of stratus pushing through from the SW with sfc winds matching and temps in the mid 50s amidst sunshine. Easily one of the stronger marine pushes of this last decade.

HQM-SEA gradient was +3.8 when I thought to check yesterday afternoon.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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