June 2022 - Summer Begins

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Coldest July days I’ve recorded is 60/55 on 7/14/11 with 0.15” of precip…and 60/57 on 7/2/19 with 0.10” of precip. 

I don't think most people can tell the difference between 59 and drizzle or 60 and drizzle.    Point is that it can happen and is becoming likely that something like that will happen early next week.

[Cloud]

20 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

As long as it’s not super hot I really could care less what happens on the 4th, for the record. We’ll enjoy it whether it’s sunny and around 80 or drizzly and 70.

Definitely fun rooting for the latter in the context of this forum, though. Mainly just to see the world’s biggest hypocrite have daily meltdowns, despite preaching half-assed stoicism during what was a literally devastating summer for the region last year. Fun stuff!

GRAMMAR POLICE INCOMING!!! 

Couldn't care less* 

Could care less implies you care.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't think most people can tell the difference between 59 and drizzle or 60 and drizzle.    Point is that it can happen and is becoming likely that something like that will happen early next week.

We once had a 7/4 BBQ in the middle of a thunderstorm with cloud to ground lightning all around us. Luckily it cleared in time for fireworks, but the skeeters and humidity were bonkers that night.

A little drizzle is nothing.

[Omegaraptor]

Sometimes weird things happen. 7/18/87 had a high of 47 in Bend, lol. Some places had highs 40 degrees below average that day.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS... now that is comical.  

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tim should definitely buy his next mansion in the Eola Hills west of Salem. Looking through the data, it looks like summer peaks in the mid-valley in early August with the 5th having a min/max of 70 set in 1944... 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

We once had a 7/4 BBQ in the middle of a thunderstorm with cloud to ground lightning all around us. Luckily it cleared in time for fireworks, but the skeeters and humidity were bonkers that night.

A little drizzle is nothing.

I still remember the saying about a decade or decade and half ago that summer don't really start around here until after the 4th. Which was mostly true. We've have had plenty of years of enjoying the 4th in the rain. 

These past few years have made us forgotten about all of that. 

[TacomaWx]

We’re currently riding a 10 day dry streak longest of the year although today might break it. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

I still remember the saying about a decade or decade and half ago that summer don't really start around here until after the 4th. Which was mostly true. We've have had plenty of years of enjoying the 4th in the rain. 

These past few years have made us forgotten about all of that. 

We have had?

Forget?

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

We once had a 7/4 BBQ in the middle of a thunderstorm with cloud to ground lightning all around us. Luckily it cleared in time for fireworks, but the skeeters and humidity were bonkers that night.

A little drizzle is nothing.

This upcoming weekend in Sunriver might very well be the first lightning strike I’ll see since 2020. And I only have to cross to the fun side of the Cascades to see it happen!

I would not mind another 5” of rain if it came in a big thunderstorm.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

We have had?

Forget?

We have have had Jesse! 

And forgetteded. 

[TT-SEA]

Started out sunny... then a thick marine layer rolled in and now starting to break up a little.    WRF says it will be getting cloudier again this afternoon.

 

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim should definitely buy his next mansion in the Eola Hills west of Salem. Looking through the data, it looks like summer peaks in the mid-valley in early August with the 5th having a min/max of 70 set in 1944... 

I don’t think that’s nearly warm enough for him.

Hawaii or Isle of Palms would be a much better fit. Both can go months without a single cold front. And have palm trees.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hmmm... I don't really remember it ever raining on the 4th... Obviously it has a few times in my lifetime, but I have no memory of it. 

Also...Imagine sitting on this goldmine. 

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3186-Orchard-Heights-Rd-NW-Salem-OR-97304/48509244_zpid/

[Cascadia_Wx]

Pretty stout marine push overnight even though it took its time at first last  evening. Fell to 55 by sunrise at which point it was still mostly clear. Then low clouds pushed in as the morning wore on. Totally socked in now and 62 degrees.

[Cloud]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We’re currently riding a 10 day dry streak longest of the year although today might break it. 

Don’t know how much of this will reach far inland with the low continuing to spin offshore. It’s definitely wet in Aberdeen. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hmmm... I don't really remember it ever raining on the 4th... Obviously it has a few times in my lifetime, but I have no memory of it. 

Also...Imagine sitting on this goldmine. 

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3186-Orchard-Heights-Rd-NW-Salem-OR-97304/48509244_zpid/

July is much more variable up here.   Its not always a slam dunk nice like it is down there.   Which is the reason I keep tracking the models in the middle of the summer.  

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 12Z GEFS shows the coolest day being Sunday.    Its about 12 degrees warmer for Seattle on the 4th compared to the operational run and much closer to normal.

 

[NWbyNW]

Very very breezy day today here along the Puget Sound.  A pretty much near constant blows of varying degrees. 

It feels good.

[NWbyNW]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hmmm... I don't really remember it ever raining on the 4th... Obviously it has a few times in my lifetime, but I have no memory of it. 

Also...Imagine sitting on this goldmine. 

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3186-Orchard-Heights-Rd-NW-Salem-OR-97304/48509244_zpid/

It better be a two gold mines and a barn filled with hundreds of classic cars.  Geez, that's expensive. 

They know a developer will buy it and continue the sprawl. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... the 12Z GEFS shows the coolest day being Sunday.    Its about 12 degrees warmer for Seattle on the 4th compared to the operational run and much closer to normal.

 

Looks like cool anomalies are more south. We should be in the low 80s in the Willamette Valley in early July. 

 

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

July is much more variable up here.   Its not always a slam dunk nice like it is down there.   Which is the reason I keep tracking the models in the middle of the summer.  

I suppose in your rainforest. It can rain down here in July too. SLE's daily rainfall record in July is 1.80", nothing to sneeze at there. 

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

This upcoming weekend in Sunriver might very well be the first lightning strike I’ll see since 2020. And I only have to cross to the fun side of the Cascades to see it happen!

I would not mind another 5” of rain if it came in a big thunderstorm.

5” of rain in a single thunderstorm? Yikes lol.

I definitely wouldn’t enjoy that. One of those slow moving boomers stalled and blew its entire load over Ellicott City in 2018 and it wiped out half the town.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like cool anomalies are more south. We should be in the low 80s in the Willamette Valley in early July. 

 

I suppose in your rainforest. It can rain down here in July too. SLE's daily rainfall record in July is 1.80", nothing to sneeze at there. 

Its more variable on the mean streets of downtown Seattle as well.   As evidenced by the historical record showing that it can be drizzly and chilly in July.   In fact it happens almost every year at some point.  

[T-Town]

Misting here now. 61 degrees. Just a slight change from yesterday. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Misting here now. 61 degrees. Just a slight change from yesterday. 

Case in point... it can be quite variable up here in the summer.   

[TacomaWx]

11 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Misting here now. 61 degrees. Just a slight change from yesterday. 

Just a 25 degree drop from yesterday. 

[Phishy Wx]

what are you's guys arguing about today?

[MossMan]

2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

I’m gonna wait until I’m atleast 30 to have kids lol

I waited until I was 37…Kind of wished I was 7yrs younger lol! 

[Kayla]

CPC has us under a slight risk for severe storms out this way today. CAPE is kind of meh though so not expecting anything too exciting. 

Lots of talk about July 4th but I feel like what we should really be focused on is what happens just after the 4th. Possible 600dm heat dome expanding and retrograding from the upper plains. Could be a brutal stretch upcoming.

[The Blob]

2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

I’m gonna wait until I’m atleast 30 to have kids lol

I had my first at 25 and my third at 28. I. Am. Done. Lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I waited until I was 37…Kind of wished I was 7yrs younger lol! 

Yeah I can't imagine starting at 37, that's how old I am now and I feel old AF. Then I think when this guy turns 18 I will be 55. WHAT WILL OUR CLIMATE LOOK LIKE THEN? That is the other question I have. 

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, Kayla said:

CPC has us under a slight risk for severe storms out this way today. CAPE is kind of meh though so not expecting anything too exciting. 

Lots of talk about July 4th but I feel like what we should really be focused on is what happens just after the 4th. Possible 600dm heat dome expanding and retrograding from the upper plains. Could be a brutal stretch upcoming.

PNW would be lucky to avoid another heat spike considering how heat-favorable the MJO/GWO looks. Mid-July might have one last hurrah left in it.

Maybe the background circulation will keep it in check on the westside. Have no idea. But it isn’t until the second half of July (especially the 20th onwards) that the tropical forcing/intraseasonal state becomes legitimately favorable for western troughing again.

[BLI snowman]

42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its more variable on the mean streets of downtown Seattle as well.   As evidenced by the historical record showing that it can be drizzly and chilly in July.   In fact it happens almost every year at some point.  

SEA averages 0.75" of precip in July while Silver Creek Falls averages 0.95".

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is not terrible for the 4th... much better than the GFS.    It shows partly sunny and around 70 in Seattle with some rain to the west along the coast and to the north across the border and to the east in the mountains.   But fairly quiet and pleasant in the middle in the Seattle area.   Also... if its cool bias is in play then maybe this is actually low to mid 70s in places.

 

[RentonHill]

15 minutes ago, The Blob said:

I had my first at 25 and my third at 28. I. Am. Done. Lol

thats assault, brotha sista

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

SEA averages 0.75" of precip in July while Silver Creek Falls averages 0.95".

As you know... that does not mean anything in terms of more variability.    One reason Seattle is more variable is because its right on the water and more likely to get socked in longer.    Also... Andrew was talking about Salem earlier.    Salem is definitely more consistent in July and August.   

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF shows the coolest day being the 4th... and the 12Z run warms up quite a bit faster than the 00Z run by Tuesday and Wednesday.   That would be nice.    

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

As you know... that does not mean anything in terms of more variability.    One reason Seattle is more variable is because its right on the water and more likely to get socked in longer.    Also... Andrew was talking about Salem earlier.    Salem is definitely more consistent in July and August.   

Looks like Silver Creek Falls' lowest July maximum was 53 in 1988. Their coldest low is 32 in 1970.

For SEA, their lowest July maximum is 54 in 1966, with a monthly low of 43 in 1949.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Looks like Silver Creek Falls' lowest July maximum was 53 in 1988. Their coldest low is 32 in 1970.

For SEA, their lowest July maximum is 54 in 1966, with a monthly low of 43 in 1949.

How about Mt Hood?   More variable? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Fun stuff...