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June 2022 - Summer Begins


TT-SEA

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Pretty massive difference between the Euro and GFS for the 4th. Euro shows an inch of rain and highs in the upper 50’s North of Seattle and the GFS shows 75 degree sunshine in Seattle.

ED5F2A47-F2B2-487F-B2BB-D7DC98080228.jpeg

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Pretty massive difference between the Euro and GFS for the 4th. Euro shows an inch of rain and highs in the upper 50’s North of Seattle and the GFS shows 75 degree sunshine in Seattle.

ED5F2A47-F2B2-487F-B2BB-D7DC98080228.jpeg

The model suites completely flipped. GFS was unreasonably wet yesterday and Euro/GEM were dry and now Euro/GEM both have over an inch of rain up here in the next ten days while GFS is almost completely dry. 

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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5 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Looks very familiar for 2022.

image.png.60d2f16803c8c5d056e3674c80631420.png

New day... same result.   Most of western WA is stuck in the clouds while western OR is in the sun.    Completely different weather again today.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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23 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Pretty massive difference between the Euro and GFS for the 4th. Euro shows an inch of rain and highs in the upper 50’s North of Seattle and the GFS shows 75 degree sunshine in Seattle.

ED5F2A47-F2B2-487F-B2BB-D7DC98080228.jpeg

ECMWF will be right of course.   I wish the ECMWF and GFS were flipped.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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25 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Pretty massive difference between the Euro and GFS for the 4th. Euro shows an inch of rain and highs in the upper 50’s North of Seattle and the GFS shows 75 degree sunshine in Seattle.

ED5F2A47-F2B2-487F-B2BB-D7DC98080228.jpeg

GFS is full of s**t.

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

New day... same result.   Most of western WA is stuck in the clouds while western OR is in the sun.    Completely different weather again today.

Went from PDX to YVR on a a flight today and you could kind of see the increasing cloud cover as you went north

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2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It seems the rest of the world is experiencing stuff in the same ballpark as what we saw last June. If not just to taunt us and remind us that it’s just a matter of time before it happens again here.

By the grace of god we’ve been spared that crap so far. In fact we haven’t hit 100°F since 2016, which is one of the longest steaks on record. Have had lots of very tropical air, though.

At some point we’re gonna pay dearly for that. Maybe by then I’ll have moved somewhere else. 🤞 

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1 hour ago, bainbridgekid said:

Pretty massive difference between the Euro and GFS for the 4th. Euro shows an inch of rain and highs in the upper 50’s North of Seattle and the GFS shows 75 degree sunshine in Seattle.

ED5F2A47-F2B2-487F-B2BB-D7DC98080228.jpeg

Reality is probably somewhere in the middle…would he pretty surprised to see totals that high north of Seattle but we will see. 

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Nice day here with some sunshine after the morning drizzle and 66 degrees. 

Same thing again... a little sliver of clear skies over Tacoma while the Seattle area is still socked in all day.   

6-29.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Same thing again... a little sliver of clear skies over Tacoma while the Seattle area is still socked in all day.   

6-29.png

Yeah I was pleasantly surprised it’s pretty nice out here today…maybe it’ll clear out near the water more this afternoon. 

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1 hour ago, bainbridgekid said:

Pretty massive difference between the Euro and GFS for the 4th. Euro shows an inch of rain and highs in the upper 50’s North of Seattle and the GFS shows 75 degree sunshine in Seattle.

ED5F2A47-F2B2-487F-B2BB-D7DC98080228.jpeg

I feel like this is your typical GFS waffles. I would bank on the Euro in this range. Even if it's not a complete wash out. 

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One of the bigger crashes I've ever seen.  Yesterday it 59 at the same time it was 90 the day before.  Today it is stuck at 61 here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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30 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Reality is probably somewhere in the middle…would he pretty surprised to see totals that high north of Seattle but we will see. 

Yeah....the ECMWF has overdone precip quite often this season.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One of the bigger crashes I've ever seen.  Yesterday it 59 at the same time it was 90 the day before.  Today it is stuck at 61 here.

Pretty amazing how cold it’s been ever since it finally dried out around the solstice.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One of the bigger crashes I've ever seen.  Yesterday it 59 at the same time it was 90 the day before.  Today it is stuck at 61 here.

Chilly weather at this time of year almost always comes with clouds and gloom.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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44 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah I was pleasantly surprised it’s pretty nice out here today…maybe it’ll clear out near the water more this afternoon. 

Yeah, same. I looked outside 30 minutes ago and the sun was out. Wasn’t expecting it. 

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26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS is not running yet... interested to see if it keeps the 12Z scenario for Sunday and Monday.

Lol. Maybe the solution was so bad NCEP had to pump the brakes and correct it. :lol: 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lol. Maybe the solution was so bad NCEP had to pump the brakes and correct it. :lol: 

 

 

Running now!   Can't wait to see the goofy crap it spits out today.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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18z GFS creeps the rain closer for the 4th but still keeps most of it North of Snohomish County. Highs right about 70 in Seattle compared to 75 on the 12z.

 

D66C612A-4C6D-4476-94E8-E9E8B7F26605.png

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

18z GFS creeps the rain closer for the 4th but still keeps most of it North of Snohomish County. Highs right about 70 in Seattle compared to 75 on the 12z.

 

D66C612A-4C6D-4476-94E8-E9E8B7F26605.png

00Z run will have the center of rain squarely over Seattle.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

One of the bigger crashes I've ever seen.  Yesterday it 59 at the same time it was 90 the day before.  Today it is stuck at 61 here.

The marine layer and when it burns off is pretty much our high temperature dial in an average summer pattern like this one. Our climate genetics really make a combination of cooler than average and very sunny summer conditions pretty difficult to maintain for a significant length of time. This isn't exactly somewhere like Truckee or Reno where even the coolest possible summer pattern is still 95% sunny.

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Today is just a classic summer day the way I remember it growing up. Thick morning marine layer, sun by noon. PERFECTION.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

North Bend dropped to 32°F on this date in 2015??

https://www.northbendweather.com/WWL-mobile.php

No.

I have seen that station randomly show a temp of 32 for a few minutes even in the middle of a warm afternoon.   Almost like it rebooting or something.

6/29/15 had a high of 88 degrees.   The lows on the day before and the day after were in the 60s.   Safe to assume the actual low that was also in the 60s. 😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

At least the 12z Euro was a warm outlier at the end of the run

5DA316AB-AEA3-41D2-A3F2-F20DEB3DA099.png

Can start to see that mid-July heat spike showing up there.

I think it’s legit, too. I’d be downright shocked if the PNW got away from this subseasonal state without one more bout of ridging.

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