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June 2022 - Summer Begins


TT-SEA

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4 hours ago, Phil said:

IIRC y’all kicked our arse during the last El Niño in 2018/19.

And then there’s 1968/69. Haha

Except Portland 😭😭... I ended up with a grand total of 3.7" of snow, while Downtown and a lot of the south/West metro had like 1" total.

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56 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

1968/1969 this area had 39" of snow though!

Yeah 68-69 is almost untouchable here ever again. Arctic blast in Dec and then another in late Jan that then led to like 3-4 feet of snow throughout the metro area that fell for over 72 hours straight.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

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For some reason... that climate data link gives me errors now whenever I try to access old data.    Even the months that worked yesterday.    I wonder if there is some kind of limit?   Although Phil said he was on there all day yesterday.   I cleared my history and tried another browser and get the same errors.    

On another note... all of the models are very wet and chilly for Sunday and Monday now.    That has probably locked in at this point being only 3-4 days out.  

Remember the warm GFS runs yesterday... the 06Z run is back to showing highs struggling to reach 60.   And with heavy rain as well.    Might be record setting wet for the 4th from Olympia northward.

 

gfs-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-6568800.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

For some reason... that climate data link gives me errors now whenever I try to access old data.    Even the months that worked yesterday.    I wonder if there is some kind of limit?   Although Phil said he was on there all day yesterday.   I cleared my history and tried another browser and get the same errors.    

On another note... all of the models are very wet and chilly for Sunday and Monday now.    That has probably locked in at this point being only 3-4 days out.  

Remember the warm GFS runs yesterday... the 06Z run is back to showing highs struggling to reach 60.   And with heavy rain as well.    Might be record setting wet for the 4th from Olympia northward.

 

gfs-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-6568800.png

The 4th could actually be a bit finicky south of I90. Not fully sold it will stay below 60F all day like that, or even 65F. Deformation bands like the one modeled can be underbought though so it could indeed be even rainer than forecast, which would have implications for OLY-SEA.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

The 4th could actually be a bit finicky south of I90. Not fully sold it will stay below 60F all day like that, or even 65F. Deformation bands like the one modeled can be underbought though so it could indeed be even rainer than forecast, which would have implications for OLY-SEA.

The models will probably slip a little south over the next couple of runs... ironically with a weaker and slower ULL moving north.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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RGEM looks especially intriguing with yellow and orange blobs drifting off the Cascades and into the lowlands. Heights aren't particularly high and the mid-upper level environment will be a bit maritime, so lapse rates where it counts will be largely useless. Will have to rely on a particularly stout moist layer for substantial convection.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The models will probably slip a little south over the next couple of runs... ironically with a weaker and slower ULL moving north.   

Maybe so. Makes sense given overall trends this Spring, given that the GFS has given ULLs far too much autonomy.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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3B5E1164-91D9-4AF6-B6CE-7E35CDE3A137.png

Meanwhile, in a shocking turn of events, KATX is out...again....very shocking...... :wacko:

...Not before sending the entire region into hyperdrive though!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Maybe so. Makes sense given overall trends this Spring, given that the GFS has given ULLs far too much autonomy.

The other interesting aspect of this is that this is not a system moving across the Pacific that we can track.   It actually forms in place on Friday and Saturday.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The other interesting aspect of this is that this is not a system moving across the Pacific that we can track.   It actually forms in place on Friday and Saturday.   

Yeah, there's diffluence aloft, particularly over the northern and eastern parts of the state. Probably some lightning east of the crest before those showers move west into stable air. Air lifts over southern WA into the area, and stratoform rain appears "out of nowhere."

Actually a similar mechanism behind our usual Pacific fronts, just this time it's more fickle and the conditions present themselves transiently. No 500+ mile long baroclinic region to make continent-long rain bands that survive their journey east for days.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Last day of June today. A few years ago the July thread was called June here.

That may have been my fault... ;)

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

For some reason... that climate data link gives me errors now whenever I try to access old data.    Even the months that worked yesterday.    I wonder if there is some kind of limit?   Although Phil said he was on there all day yesterday.   I cleared my history and tried another browser and get the same errors.    

On another note... all of the models are very wet and chilly for Sunday and Monday now.    That has probably locked in at this point being only 3-4 days out.  

Remember the warm GFS runs yesterday... the 06Z run is back to showing highs struggling to reach 60.   And with heavy rain as well.    Might be record setting wet for the 4th from Olympia northward.

 

gfs-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-6568800.png

Not very nice, but a good day for hiking without too many people around.

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31 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The summer without a summer. Go away Mr. Marine Layer!! 

26C0C780-934E-44B4-8F55-0B808F67C8A2.jpeg

Some sun here this morning...

20220630_075442.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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No issues in Juneau for the 4th... unbelievable summer they are having. Average high there right now is 63.     

Screenshot_20220630-080950_Google.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

The other interesting aspect of this is that this is not a system moving across the Pacific that we can track.   It actually forms in place on Friday and Saturday.   

This would be a pretty nuts rain event if it verifies. Just another extreme in a year of some unique extremes. 

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We just had 3 days in the 90s many places and now people are talking about not having a summer. GIMME a break. 

Currently 54 after a low of 47. Some thin clouds burning off. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We just had 3 days in the 90s many places and now people are talking about not having a summer. GIMME a break. 

Currently 54 after a low of 47. Some thin clouds burning off. 

We usually have a few days in the 90s in November each year. I just think summer should be consistently warm. Leave the roller coaster weather for the spring and the fall.

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GFS ensembles look fantastic for goldilocks weather. No sign of significant rain down here, per usual for July. Could be our nicest summer in years while people 200 miles north whine and roll around in the mud because its not 105. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Some interesting extremes so far this year

-overall very dry mid January-early April 

-Chilly late February blast 2/22-2/25

-Major rain event on 2/28

-1 day heat spike on 4/7

-historic lowland snowstorm on 4/11 along with lowland snow as late as 4/14

-very cool and wet April/May 

-very wet June with a significant AR on 6/9

-dynamic heatwave 6/25-6/28 with a significant crash following 

TBD-big rain event to start July 

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20 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

That’s not the PNW…

Neither is Oregon.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, MossMan said:

I’m in the purple!! 

Gonna be wet up there either way. Seems pretty likely north of Seattle will be wet Sunday or Monday maybe both days. Olympia to Seattle a little less certain but the models seem to be trending south a bit (which I definitely like)

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I expect models will continue to really struggle with placement, timing, and amounts of rain with Sunday/Monday's systems. They're quite unusual in that they can't be tracked across the Pacific, but will basically develop right on top of us. 

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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50 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Neither is Oregon.

Especially when most of Oregon becomes Greater Idaho (doubt it'll happen, but they're pushing!) 😜

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Wow. Another fantastic GFS run. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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55 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

12z GFS is back to nearly totally dry Monday. Still fairly wet/convective looking Sunday afternoon though.

FWIW... the 12Z GEFS shows the coolest day being Sunday.   

This is high temps on the 4th per the 12Z GEFS:

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nw-t2m_f_max6-6979200 (2).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

plenty of summer over here on the Eastside for anyone searching

Plenty of summer here at 44.91 N 122.63 W

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... the 12Z GEFS shows the coolest day being Sunday.   

This is high temps on the 4th per the 12Z GEFS:

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nw-t2m_f_max6-6979200 (2).png

Going to be a cool start to July down here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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