BLI snowman Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, Phil said: Am I crazy for taking the under on temps late Jul-mid Aug? Because I don’t see any kind of heat signal during that timeframe. Like, zippo. Though I suppose it’s possible models are wrong w/ handling the suppressed phase of the MJO thru the W-Hem in late July. But I don’t think they’re *that* wrong. Alas, August is a cursed stretch of calendar where the forests cry out as they wither and burn, and the stench of death permeates the air. I would expect nothing less than pure hellfire. 2 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Euro overall shows a very cool and wet start to July. Monday could be our wettest July day here at this location since 2019 or even 2014 potentially. I definitely approve since there’s still a good chance it’ll be dry enough for fireworks the evening of the 4th here in the south sound too. So you would not approve if its still pouring rain in the South Sound during the evening? Places to the north won't be as lucky as you. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 I'm not celebrating the 4th again anyway until we are living in a theocratic Christian nation. 4 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: I'm not celebrating the 4th again anyway until we are living in a theocratic Christian nation. I am thinking about taking off the 5th and 6th and pretending its a holiday weekend. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: So you would not approve if its still pouring rain in the South Sound during the evening? Places to the north won't be as lucky as you. Well I just enjoy whatever life throws at me…besides +90 degree heat. Definitely love getting as much rain as we can get from May-September since the default is dry…but i definitely also love fireworks on the 4th. Should be able to get the best of both this year! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 21 minutes ago, Phil said: They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting a different result. This is the 3rd time I’ve predicted a prolonged warmup this spring/summer and each time it’s ended up being a few days then back to cool. Clearly something is different this year. The same intraseasonal cycles in the tropics that have roasted the PNW since 2013 have not done so in 2022. Volcanic 'winter' FTW! 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: The timing is obviously the huge issue this time. Even you said the only day you really want it to be nice is on the 4th. Got him!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 A day like today would be great for the 4th but I’m sure people will adjust accordingly and still have a great time monday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 It's been a while since the last super rainy Independence Day. Bring it on! 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 Thousands of people across the nation will die on Monday regardless of the weather. January 2023. 1 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Got him!!! 1 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 Forgot how nice Highway 22 through East Salem and Stayton is with the rolling hills. Much more scenic than flat I-5. No chemtrails today either. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 North Bend looks beautiful today. Not sure what the issue is. https://www.northbendweather.com/WWL-mobile.php 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 Cleared RAPIDLY here. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MV_snow Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 41 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Its going to be very noticeable to everyone in Seattle on a holiday. And I would bet $1,000 that there will be a Cliff Mass blog post about solar radiation on Tuesday. There are decent rainy days with sun breaks and then there is what is going to happen on Sunday and Monday which will be about as dark as it gets here in the summer. I can spot this easily on the ECMWF surface maps with multiple thick cloud layers. It’s strange to me that the Euro cloud maps are so dense given it looks like the trough is just offshore. This usually doesn’t bring tons of low clouds in like a trough to our east would. Good news is the 00z EPS looked like goldilocks weather after Monday. Hopefully many more days like today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 18 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Forgot how nice Highway 22 through East Salem and Stayton is with the rolling hills. Much more scenic than flat I-5. No chemtrails today either. Stayton in 2020 3 2 3 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 8 minutes ago, Phil said: North Bend looks beautiful today. Not sure what the issue is. https://www.northbendweather.com/WWL-mobile.php No issue today... summer perfection. Are we allowed to discuss what the models show in the future? 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 12 minutes ago, Phil said: North Bend looks beautiful today. Not sure what the issue is. https://www.northbendweather.com/WWL-mobile.php It’s June 30th. Check back on July 4th. 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 Well I’m about to get behind the wheel. See you in Sunriver. How many Tim posts can I expect until then? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 Just now, Omegaraptor said: Well I’m about to get behind the wheel. See you in Sunriver. How many Tim posts can I expect until then? Trying to finish up work so I can get outside and enjoy the day! 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 1 minute ago, MossMan said: It’s June 30th. Check back on July 4th. You gonna go back to the puke emoji for instead of the winter storm? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 13 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said: Stayton in 2020 Is that during the fires? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Is that during the fires? Yeah that was right after Labor Day. The air was bad too in southern Oregon but I don't think we had any blood red skies. More of a shade of brown in Klamath Falls. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 36 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Forgot how nice Highway 22 through East Salem and Stayton is with the rolling hills. Much more scenic than flat I-5. No chemtrails today either. It is beautiful. Stayton is a nice town, though not as nice as Silverton. But they do have the NF Santiam River and some really nice city parks. Stayton got really hosed for snow in December 2008. I know on the 20th, Silverton had about 4-5" of snow and Stayton had nothing, as the snow line hung up along the Waldo Hills south of Silverton. Stayton did well in February 2011 though, and was about the northern edge of the decent accumulations in December 2013. 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 16 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: You gonna go back to the puke emoji for instead of the winter storm? Thanks for the reminder! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 22 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said: Stayton in 2020 The Beachie Creek Fire burned quite a bit of the small town of Mehema, which is on the Santiam River about 7 miles east of Stayton, and basically due south of my location. Mehema/Lyons sit at the mouth of the Little NF Santiam canyon and the fire just roared out of there on that Tuesday after Labor Day and devoured the north and east side of the town. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 This home is a little SE of Stayton. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/38741-Lulay-Rd-Scio-OR-97374/2098183260_zpid/ 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said: It's been a while since the last super rainy Independence Day. Bring it on! Yeah or a really rainy July day. BLI hasn't picked up more than an inch of rain on a single July day since 7/20/93. Speaking of that it's remarkable how much wetter BLI is than SEA during July. SEA has only seen 7 July days with more than 2/3" of rain (>0.66") while BLI has had 7 days with more than an inch and 19 days with more than 2/3". BLI averages about 0.28" more than SEA in July. All of this shows the N/S gradient that gets even stronger once you get up into BC. 2 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: Yeah or a really rainy July day. BLI hasn't picked up more than an inch of rain on a single July day since 7/20/93. Speaking of that it's remarkable how much wetter BLI is than SEA during July. SEA has only seen 7 July days with more than 2/3" of rain (>0.66") while BLI has had 7 days with more than an inch and 19 days with more than 2/3". BLI averages about 0.28" more than SEA in July. All of this shows the N/S gradient that gets even stronger once you get up into BC. BC also recorded a much colder winter iirc. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: Yeah or a really rainy July day. BLI hasn't picked up more than an inch of rain on a single July day since 7/20/93. Speaking of that it's remarkable how much wetter BLI is than SEA during July. SEA has only seen 7 July days with more than 2/3" of rain (>0.66") while BLI has had 7 days with more than an inch and 19 days with more than 2/3". BLI averages about 0.28" more than SEA in July. All of this shows the N/S gradient that gets even stronger once you get up into BC. Some of our wettest July days since 2005 (+0.33”) We’re due for some soaker July days haven’t had many in the last 10 years. 7/5/05 0.37” 7/8/05 0.46” 7/17/07 0.37” 7/2/10 0.83” 7/16/11 0.38” 7/20/12 0.51” 7/23/14 0.53” 7/17/19 0.38” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 2 hours ago, TT-SEA said: Monday from 2-5 p.m. Of course its perfect in western Oregon! We lucked out down here. Doesn't look bad for you folks up there. Looks to be drying out. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said: We lucked out down here. Doesn't look bad for you folks up there. Looks to be drying out. I’m in the green. I want to be in the white. 1 1 1 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 +0.33 days for august for fun. Little more common to get some soaking rains in the second half of august…but it’s been 3 years since a +0.33” rainfall in July or august so we’re due it looks like. 8/20/08 0.64” 8/24/08 0.40” 8/29/09 0.34” 8/31/13 0.58” 8/12/14 0.59” 8/13/14 1.05” 8/30/14 0.37” 8/14/15 0.68” 8/29/15 1.19” 8/30/15 0.49” 8/10/19 0.48” 8/29/19 0.47” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 75 degrees and sunny. We got to share in some of that perfect western Oregon summer weather today. 2 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 NAM is looking very pleasant with a good amount of drizzle this weekend. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 Outside getting some work done and noticed the lawn is already starting to turn brown in the sunny spots. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Is that during the fires? I think it was during an Alien invasion but not sure. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Outside getting some work done and noticed the lawn is already starting to turn brown in the sunny spots. yup that was us last week and the Irrigation went on over this past weekend. Now having to turn up the irrigation times per zone. lawn is thirsty 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: This home is a little SE of Stayton. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/38741-Lulay-Rd-Scio-OR-97374/2098183260_zpid/ That's an awesome home! Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 New EPS weeklies are bullish on large scale subsidence enveloping the west-Pacific starting in late July. Regardless of what the ensemble mean looks like across the middle latitudes, this strongly suggests to me that -PNA will be dominant during the 2nd half of summer with a protracted -dAAMt starting around the third week of July. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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