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June 2022 - Summer Begins


TT-SEA

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14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Here at least, precip was pretty much average in October 1949. Most of the precip that month fell between the 5-11th. That must have been a pretty cold trough because we had sub-40 highs with it. 

October 1949 was not too wet here... but it was cold with numerous frosty nights.   And then it was in the low 70s in early November.  

I need to see a super Nina form first.   And even then there are many ways it can fail.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Ended up with an 80/51 day here with some brief morning clouds then bright blazing sunshine. 

Looks like 74/47 up herrrrr.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Nah just an observation of what the models show.  Variability is a good thing for everyone.

I think you are stating another preference.  Nothing that happens is good or bad.   Its all neutral.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Crazy it’s the last evening of June. Looks like the month will end up about a degree above average at PDX. Still haven’t had a below average one there since 2012. Maybe someday we will get a cool June again.

Well someday when we compare it to the 2011-2040 averages it will look cool!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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PDX ended up with almost 200% of normal rainfall for June.   Tragic month.   

And was it also the wettest April - June on record?

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think you are stating another preference.  Nothing that happens is good or bad.   Its all neutral.  

Still not a preference, try again.  There is literally something for everyone over the next week currently showing in the models, I thought this was a safe place to talk about what the models are showing, or is it not now because they don't show what you want.....  I am confused.  Weather does not schedule it's outcome to appease certain dates, it's gonna happen regardless, just enjoy what you can and move on.  Good luck.

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5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Dewness Index peaks on January 24. The last time we had measurable snow fall on that date here was in 1954 (although 2009 missed it by maybe a couple hours).

It will NOT occur in 2023. 2024 doesn’t look good either.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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9 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Still not a preference, try again.  There is literally something for everyone over the next week currently showing in the models, I thought this was a safe place to talk about what the models are showing, or is it not now because they don't show what you want.....  I am confused.  Weather does not schedule it's outcome to appease certain dates, it's gonna happen regardless, just enjoy what you can and move on.  Good luck.

You should not state preferences Chris.   Variability is a preference.   Nature is preference-neutral.   Please keep preferences out of your posts.    👍  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00Z GFS is such a tease.    But look at PDX rocking upper 70s and everyone is loving life on the 4th.    Well almost everyone.  

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-precip_3hr_inch-6979200.png

gfs-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-6979200 (2).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

image.png.91b935adcc8be2adb3f19fa165a02289.png

image.thumb.png.59ef9d2bc30148d372b806ea51ea9732.png

image.png.c4db8fe881b1e926ca8c86567abe603b.png

 

Yes the world warming up and climate change is just a figment of our imagination because Al gore and a couple people over exaggerated how rapidly it would happen. It definitely is a real thing and a few decades from now it probably won’t be a joke…the fact it’s even a debate is absolutely comical. 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Yes the world warming up and climate change is just a figment of our imagination because Al gore and a couple people over exaggerated how rapidly it would happen. It definitely is a real thing and a few decades from now it probably won’t be a joke…the fact it’s even a debate is absolutely comical. 

The funniest fucking thing is that ensemble means from rudimentary primitive climate models from the early 1980s are verifying almost perfectly... If anything they've underdone warming after 2000.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The funniest fucking thing is that ensemble means from rudimentary primitive climate models from the early 1980s are verifying almost perfectly... If anything they've underdone warming after 2000.

To which primitive models are you referring?

Almost all of the projections have overestimated warming under scenarios most similar to the observed GHG increases (particularly in the tropical upper troposphere, which is where the greatest thermalization of intercepted LWR will occur under any positive H2O feedback scenario).

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17 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The funniest ******* thing is that ensemble means from rudimentary primitive climate models from the early 1980s are verifying almost perfectly... If anything they've underdone warming after 2000.

One side of the political spectrum seems to be obsessed with forced moral outrage over climate change.   That pushes the other side away.   The fact is that the Earth goes through cycles all the time.   The medieval warm period was followed by the little ice age and now its warming again.   So part of it is natural.    But the AOCs of the world do more to hurt the cause rather than help with the histrionics about the world ending in 10 years.   Because it won't.    Alligators once lived in the arctic and we are all still here.   Life on Earth absolutely thrived when it was much warmer than it is now.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Nice try, enjoy the weekend.

We will definitely enjoy it.     And my last post was pure sarcasm. 😁

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

One side of the political spectrum seems to be obsessed with forced moral outrage over climate change.   That pushes the other side away.   The fact is that the Earth goes through cycles all the time.   The medieval warm period was followed by the little ice age and now its warming again.   So part of it is natural.    But the AOCs of the world do more to hurt the cause rather than help with the histrionics about the world ending in 10 years.   Because it won't.    Alligators once lived in the arctic and we are all still here.   Life on Earth absolutely thrived when it was much warmer than it is now.    

Holy crap, I (mostly) agree with this. 😱 

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16 minutes ago, Phil said:

To which primitive models are you referring?

Almost all of the projections have overestimated warming under scenarios most similar to the observed GHG increases (particularly in the tropical upper troposphere, which is where the greatest thermalization of intercepted LWR will occur under any positive H2O feedback scenario).

Simple energy exchange models from as early on as the 1960s developed by Manabe & Wetherald forecast within 0.5°C. Fairly large errors, but pretty good for its time and its methods.

Ensemble means from more sophisticated models that factored in global circulation developed in the late 80s (Hansen et al., Stuart et al.) nailed the last 40 years of warming within 0.1°C.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Holy crap, I (mostly) agree with this. 😱 

We both like 70s in the summer as well.     We actually agree on way more than you like to pretend on here.  ;)

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

One side of the political spectrum seems to be obsessed with forced moral outrage over climate change.   That pushes the other side away.   The fact is that the Earth goes through cycles all the time.   The medieval warm period was followed by the little ice age and now its warming again.   So part of it is natural.    But the AOCs of the world do more to hurt the cause rather than help with the histrionics about the world ending in 10 years.   Because it won't.    Alligators once lived in the arctic and we are all still here.   Life on Earth absolutely thrived when it was much warmer than it is now.    

It is true there’s natural cycles to things…and I don’t want to get too deep into it but there’s human caused global warming which is not part of the natural cycle…which is the problem that we ought to figure out and change. I’m not on the AOC train there’s definitely some climate alarmists that are over dramatizing things but there is a real problem. 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It is true there’s natural cycles to things…and I don’t want to get too deep into it but there’s human caused global warming which is not part of the natural cycle…which is the problem that we ought to figure out and change. I’m not on the AOC train there’s definitely some climate alarmists that are over dramatizing things but there is a real problem. 

I didn’t realize my kind of purposefully over the top comment would create such a big commotion, but you have been a real voice of reason in the discussion.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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