June 2022 - Summer Begins

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

The 12z GFS is also way too far SW with that trough/ULL next weekend, perhaps in part due to diabatic heating from that over-strengthened hurricane.

Again, easy to see.

12Z GEM looks improved too.   

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEM looks improved too.   

If it makes dynamic sense I can get behind it.

The GFS solution, in particular, is wrong.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

If it makes dynamic sense I can get behind it.

The GFS solution, in particular, is wrong.

I will gladly take the GEM solution as well.      Only goes out through Monday morning... but Saturday and Sunday look great.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEM hints at convection on the morning of the 4th with the ULL approaching from the SW.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This would be such a blessing from the LORD. And then if it didn't rain the rest of the month I could continue to complain about how July had above average rainfall and was "wet."

Edited June 24, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Phil]

Actually the CMC develops a tropical system off the Texas gulf coast which seems to impact the evolution of the 4CH/central US ridge.

I’m not sure how that will evolve. Could be right. At face value the CMC 500mb evolution looks more reasonable (to me) than the GFS, though (that is almost certainly wrong).

[Deweydog]

Just now, Phil said:

Actually the CMC develops a tropical system off the Texas gulf coast which seems to impact the evolution of the central US ridge.

I’m not sure how that will evolve. Could be right. At face value the CMC 500mb evolution looks more reasonable (to me) than the GFS but it could be that both are wrong.

Has that ever happened?

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This would be such a blessing from the LORD. And then if it didn't rain the rest of the month I could continue to complain about how July had above average rainfall and was "wet."

Except reality is exactly the opposite.   I love getting a bunch of rain all at once in an otherwise dry month.   Not sure if I have mentioned that a million times.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Except reality is exactly the opposite.   I love getting a bunch of rain all at once in an otherwise dry month.   Not sure if I have mentioned that a million times.  

The reality is it probably will not verify, and we probably won't get any rain in July. Which is pretty normal. 

[Skagit Weather]

12z GFS shows the North Sound picking up more than an inch of rain on the 7th. That would be quite remarkable, especially since it doesn't look particularly convective in nature. Not going to happen, but would certainly provide a good above average soaking.

[ShawniganLake]

51 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Lets just go with the 12Z GFS through the holiday weekend... lock it in.  

Its shows sunshine all 3 days with highs of 80, 80, 82 at SEA.

 

 

 

The cutoffs on this GFS run are making Phil’s eyes bleed.  He’s hoping it’s drizzling and in the 50s for Seattle next weekend.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

I think YVR set a record low minimum this morning 

You’re right!

 

[Phil]

21 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

The cutoffs on this GFS run are making Phil’s eyes bleed.  He’s hoping it’s drizzling and in the 50s for Seattle next weekend.  

I’m not a sadist.  Which is why I don’t derive pleasure from death ridges. I just want the GFS not to be a national embarrassment.

[Meatyorologist]

100 pages!

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF does not show any precipitation with the Monday evening crash.  

[Meatyorologist]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF does not show any precipitation with the Monday evening crash.  

Any precip would be convective monday evening.

[TT-SEA]

Some nice improvements on the ECMWF for the holiday weekend.   Went in the same direction as the GFS.

[Cloud]

This is an incredible crash from just within a few hours. Peak heat looks to be in the mid-90s then a 20 degrees drop within 3 hours and 6 hours later, we'll be in the 60s across the board. 

[TacomaWaWx]

2 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

That wind event had to have hit most on the forum. That was the last time I experienced a 60+ mph wind all the way down in Klamath Falls.

Within minutes of that wind, the smoke followed. 

Some locations up here didn’t get the strong winds but many places did. We’re downwind from the stampede gap where 410 goes up into the mountains by enumclaw. Sometimes the east winds set up just right and filter through enumclaw and Bonney lake and go all the way down into commencement bay and my nieghboorhood. It’s pretty cool when it happens. 

[TacomaWaWx]

68 here…we will see if we can surpass our high temp of 76 today from earlier this week. We will do it tomorrow if we don’t today. 

[The Blob]

Happy birthday to me.

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Some locations up here didn’t get the strong winds but many places did. We’re downwind from the stampede gap where 410 goes up into the mountains by enumclaw. Sometimes the east winds set up just right and filter through enumclaw and Bonney lake and go all the way down into commencement bay and my nieghboorhood. It’s pretty cool when it happens. 

We were at the family lake house at Lake Goodwin that day and the wind was blowing pretty hardcore, the waves were bigger than they looked in the picture. The result of that day lead to a terrible (but we still had fun) vacation at Orondo a few days later. 

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Happy birthday to me.

[Doinko]

10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Some locations up here didn’t get the strong winds but many places did. We’re downwind from the stampede gap where 410 goes up into the mountains by enumclaw. Sometimes the east winds set up just right and filter through enumclaw and Bonney lake and go all the way down into commencement bay and my nieghboorhood. It’s pretty cool when it happens. 

We were driving back from Bend when the wind/smoke came in, and the drive home was smoke-filled and the skies were a pure red in some places on the I-5 corridor. I don't know what the east wind was like in my area but it probably was strong since the wind sometimes comes over the West Hills and accelerates here. 

[Doinko]

GOES image from Sept 2020 (the fires are an underlay) in Oregon

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS is about the same... but the control run is a sh*t show for the 4th and 5th.  So there is hope it will be 60 degrees and drizzling on the 4th.     

[T-Town]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This would be such a blessing from the LORD. And then if it didn't rain the rest of the month I could continue to complain about how July had above average rainfall and was "wet."

The beauty of this scenario is that everyone has something to complain about. 

[Cloud]

41 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Happy birthday to me.

Enjoy your cake!

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF also shows a more impressive crash now.    Assuming it's cool bias is in play... reality will likely be closer to 94 to 73.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF cool bias in play today... per the output in previous post the high today will be 70 in Seattle.    Its currently 71 at 1 p.m.  

[The Blob]

I don't remember it being that windy for Labor day 2020. What mostly sticks is the smoke then the inversion we had at PDX. It was so bad one morning coming home from work I didn't see the giant highway sign for the 205/84 split till I was under it. I also put on GPS because I wasn't sure if I would get lost or not. I could barely see the lane stripes as well.

[Phil]

Looks like NE US and PNW/West Coast are the places to be as we head into the dog days of summer, July 4th onwards.

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

Looks like NE US and PNW/West Coast are the places to be as we head into the dog days of summer, July 4th onwards.

Pretty unusual for the immediate West Coast and New England to be the cooler places.   I will have to look into whether this has ever happened before.   I usually associate Texas and Oklahoma with cool weather in the summer.   Very strange.

And as been mentioned many, many times... normal summer weather in western WA or even warmer than normal summer weather is still way cooler than normal for the middle of the county in the summer.    You act like we normally have oppressive heat like Louisiana and we are getting so lucky this year.    

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

76F and beautiful. Got some yard work done earlier.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That whole September 2020 thing was something else. It was easily the most surreal weather experience I have ever had. Of course everyone refers to the fires as the "Labor Day Fires" and the wind started whipping up late in the day on Labor Day, but most of the day was sunny, hot, and beautiful. 

[Meatyorologist]

52 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF cool bias in play today... per the output in previous post the high today will be 70 in Seattle.    Its currently 71 at 1 p.m.  

yoro's gonna gyro

[Phil]

27 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty unusual for the immediate West Coast and New England to be the cooler places.   I will have to look into whether this has ever happened before.   I usually associate Texas and Oklahoma with cool weather in the summer.   Very strange.

And as been mentioned many, many times... normal summer weather in western WA or even warmer than normal summer weather is still way cooler than normal for the middle of the county in the summer.    You act like we normally have oppressive heat like Louisiana and we are getting so lucky this year.    

 

You read waaaayyy too much into that.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

You read waaaayyy too much into that.  

Yeah, it's also an anomaly map, so his point doesn't even make sense. 

[TacomaWaWx]

71 here…don’t think we will crack 76 at this rate north wind off the sound keeping us relatively cool. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, it's also an anomaly map, so his point doesn't even make sense. 

Point is... Phil likes to pretend the only way we can enjoy summer here is if it's 10-15 degrees colder than normal.   True in DC... not exactly true in western WA.