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June 2022 - Summer Begins


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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Plenty of cool Julys out there during 3+ year Niña cycles following cool springs. 1975, 1955, 1999, 2000, and 2001 come to mind.

Generally speaking it’s the state of Indo-Pacific convection that plays the largest role in how summer plays out up there. Developing Niños that emerged via the WPAC (or very east based Niñas/warm WPAC neutral years) tend to be the warmest w/ the most +PNA/+TNH, while years w/ large scale WPAC subsidence (often developing Niñas but also sometimes east-based Niños or neutral years w/ a cool WPAC) tend to be the coolest.

This year has the background Walker Cell displaced/stretched pretty far west into the Indo-Pacific, which is more reflective of the “cool” summer analog composite. Though to what extent is obviously still TBD. 

I'm familiar. The ones listed are record type cold. I experienced all of them. I'm arguing for a pretty middle of the road July-August period. A record cold spring following a la niña winter equates to a middle of the road July-August period. The mean temperature in July will be 1-2 degrees below average at KGEG. August will be + or -1. September could go either way.

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Summer 2016 was sooooo cold. 

B3F12FE8-424D-4676-A9B2-BDBFB0F38CC3.jpeg

AFEB1D39-23AB-4E58-8B14-98443DFD04DB.png

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

Wow, I can't even imagine something like that happening here.

The first time I experienced shelf/roll clouds 😎

20090604-07.jpg

20090604-02.jpg

20090604-04.jpg

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Well lets just say the only July in recent years to end cool was in 2016. And that's using 1981-2010 averages. 

I'm pretty sure July 2011 was warmer in Klamath Falls. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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I believe Eugene set a record low in early July 2016. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Last below average July at SLE was 2012. 
 

Average high was below normal in 2016, but the mean was slightly above normal. 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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53 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Forget June, that’s a wetter than average run in November or December.

Also consider mountain snowpack is much higher than normal. If something like that verifies we could be looking at some pretty significant flood concerns.

 

Worst case scenario would be a sudden flip to hot right afterwards and a rapid simultaneous snowmelt on all  the major watersheds. Historically that's how we see the biggest flooding on the biggest rivers.

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13 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I think we stick a fork in this summer.  We were due for a bad one, but this is pretty ridiculous.

It already appears we could challenge June 1856 for awfulness. 

June 4 and I can already tell this will be worse than the summers that followed Tambora and Huaynaputina. Honestly farmers shouldn’t even bother planting anything this year.

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Last below average August at SLE was in 2000. Wow. Lol

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

July 2016 was pretty close to 1991-2020 normals, on the coolish side most places. We had some pretty big heatwaves in august 2016 though. Today’s record high at SLE is 99 set during a fairly brief but impressive heatwave in... 2016.

Vanilla summer after a freakishly warm spring

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Last below average August at SLE was in 2000. Wow. Lol

A July-August period like 2000 could be in the cards. It wasn't horrible. July 4th was 60s and drizzle. We need to get that monkey off of our backs. We're due.

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24 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

June 4 and I can already tell this will be worse than the summers that followed Tambora and Huaynaputina. Honestly farmers shouldn’t even bother planting anything this year.

It's way too early to tell. Every June has crummy weather. Even last year had highs in the 50s up here. Many of the "experts" are saying that the Tongan volcanic eruption will do little to cool the earth's climate. They've been wrong before. Maybe we are at the start of a volcanic summer. I don't know.

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Omg the 12z was wet!!!

1840159F-DB58-40A5-9B8F-4E567E760C35.png

Nice Chevy! White is a good choice for the cooker that is coming in August. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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10 minutes ago, snow drift said:

It's way too early. Every June has crummy weather. Even last year had highs in the 50s up here.

I was visiting my brother in Seattle last year in early June. Stayed from June 4-7. Shivered my a** off on the waterfront and saw a PSCZ (although I wasn’t in it). If you had told me what was coming in three weeks…

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48 minutes ago, snow drift said:

I'm familiar. The ones listed are record type cold. I experienced all of them. I'm arguing for a pretty middle of the road July-August period. A record cold spring following a la niña winter equates to a middle of the road July-August period. The mean temperature in July will be 1-2 degrees below average at KGEG. August will be + or -1. September could go either way.

Not necessarily.

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6 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I was visiting my brother in Seattle last year in early June. Stayed from June 4-7. Shivered my a** off on the waterfront and saw a PSCZ (although I wasn’t in it). If you had told me what was coming in three weeks…

It was in the 80s and 90s from June 1-4 over here. June 6th made it to just 56. 😁

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10 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I was visiting my brother in Seattle last year in early June. Stayed from June 4-7. Shivered my a** off on the waterfront and saw a PSCZ (although I wasn’t in it). If you had told me what was coming in three weeks…

No doubt... the first half of June is absolutely notorious for wet and cloudy weather regardless of ENSO or anything else.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Wearing the memory goggles ⛈️

ww0330_overview_big_wou.gif

KRTX_20090604_2.gif

090604_rpts.gif

What an awesome thunderstorm outbreak... Salem got annihilated! Eugene a pretty sad shafting. Albany got squarely pegged by that one mean cell.

Where do you find these archived storm reports, radar, and svr tsm watch zones? I'd love to flip through different outbreaks on my own time.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

What an awesome thunderstorm outbreak... Salem got annihilated! Eugene a pretty sad shafting. Albany got squarely pegged by that one mean cell.

Where do you find these archived storm reports, radar, and svr tsm watch zones? I'd love to flip through different outbreaks on my own time.

As for the watches and reports, SPC lets you search for a date. They're archived back to the late 90's I think.

The radar is off a free program (takes longer to order data, but for free its great), you can download it to your computer. 
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/wct/

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I was so hoping you’d see this 😂😂😂

I took the bait. 😂

Funny enough it’s much less humid here as dews have mixed into the upper 30s. Feels really weird lol..temp is 85°F but it’s almost like room temperature in the shade. 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

I took the bait. 😂

Funny enough it’s much less humid here as dews have mixed into the upper 30s. Feels really weird lol..temp is 85°F but it’s almost like room temperature in the shade. 

It feels pretty humid by PNW standards. Then again last year I experienced it being 106 with a DP of 72 and that was probably one of the most awful experiences of my life. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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