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June 2022 - Summer Begins


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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Slavery was actually legal in Maryland, but they opted not to secede from the Union during the Civil War. Because the Emancipation Proclamation only freed slaves in the Confederacy, slavery was legal in Maryland until 1864 when it was narrowly abolished by referendum. In fact it was only decided by about 400 votes after absentee ballots from Marylanders fighting for the Union were counted...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/the-not-quite-free-state-maryland-dragged-its-feet-on-emancipation-during-civil-war/2013/09/13/a34d35de-fec7-11e2-bd97-676ec24f1f3f_story.html

Kentucky and Missouri were also slave states and stayed in the Union. And Virginia of course broke in two, with the western part of that state remaining in the Union as the new state of West Virginia.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I do worry that if this AR event verifies it might have a more negative impact than positive. Could be some flooding potential and melt a lot of snowpack. From a weather geek perspective though would be freaking nuts to get a uber wet June. 

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think due to the much more consolidated nature of the snowpack in the spring as compared to the fall/winter, the snowpack won't melt nearly as much as it would during a traditional atmospheric river event.

For example it was in the mid 40s yesterday at 4,000' at the Mount Baker Ski Area and they picked up 2.5" of rain. Despite all that rain, relatively warm temperatures, and wind gusting to 40 mph, they only lost 3" of snow depth.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 21.75" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1", 2/2: Tr, 2/21: 1.5", 2/22: 0.75", 2/23: 1.5", 2/24: 1")

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  • Longtimer

18z didn't look all that wild. 

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 hours ago, Phil said:

But will it be capped? Need to ride the edge of the ridge without getting stuck underneath it. 😬 

Never said any of that CAPE would be realized ;)

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said:

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think due to the much more consolidated nature of the snowpack in the spring as compared to the fall/winter, the snowpack won't melt nearly as much as it would during a traditional atmospheric river event.

For example it was in the mid 40s yesterday at 4,000' at the Mount Baker Ski Area and they picked up 2.5" of rain. Despite all that rain, relatively warm temperatures, and wind gusting to 40 mph, they only lost 3" of snow depth.

Normally you’d think it would be a big deal so hopefully it’s not! I’ll gladly take some snowmelt from heavy rains versus extreme heat melting everything like last June. Much more beneficial for it to be raining. Will likely be some flooding concerns still though which feels weird to talk about in June. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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65/47 here today in Tacoma. Today will be our first totally dry day of the month. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

 

Those comments are giving me an aneurysm

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Slavery was actually legal in Maryland, but they opted not to secede from the Union during the Civil War. Because the Emancipation Proclamation only freed slaves in the Confederacy, slavery was legal in Maryland until 1864 when it was narrowly abolished by referendum. In fact it was only decided by about 400 votes after absentee ballots from Marylanders fighting for the Union were counted...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/the-not-quite-free-state-maryland-dragged-its-feet-on-emancipation-during-civil-war/2013/09/13/a34d35de-fec7-11e2-bd97-676ec24f1f3f_story.html

Troughing should be illegal during the summer. Let's take a vote. 

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Houston TX might have the worst climate in the US.

Heat indices 110°F every day and it’s only early June. 😢

DA1704C7-C591-4682-BF91-6D197BD252D3.png

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Houston TX might have the worst climate in the US.

Heat indices 110°F every day and it’s only early June. 😢

DA1704C7-C591-4682-BF91-6D197BD252D3.png

And it doesn't get the same amount of afternoon thunderstorms as other cities with similar humidity like Miami or NOLA or Atlanta. It's that EML influence from the desert SW... Caps a good portion of it.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

I'm not gonna lie... I would like to move to a sunnier climate eventually. Not necessarily a warmer climate... somewhere that never gets snow is a no-go. Honestly most of the interior/mountain West fits the bill. Having the sun is just such a massive boost for my psyche. Helps me get out of bed, makes me more excited for the day, etc. Really noticed the impact with how little sun there was this April and first half of May.

Nah. You should move to an even cloudier climate then spend 14 hours a day complaining about cloud cover and rainfall stats for your backyard. Seems like that’s what any rational sun lover would do. 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I'm not gonna lie... I would like to move to a sunnier climate eventually. Not necessarily a warmer climate... somewhere that never gets snow is a no-go. Honestly most of the interior/mountain West fits the bill. Having the sun is just such a massive boost for my psyche. Helps me get out of bed, makes me more excited for the day, etc. Really noticed the impact with how little sun there was this April and first half of May.

Having SAD I also need some sunlight to feel my best. But it doesn’t have to be all day every day. Just a few hours per day makes a massive difference for me.

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5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

And it doesn't get the same amount of afternoon thunderstorms as other cities with similar humidity like Miami or NOLA or Atlanta. It's that EML influence from the desert SW... Caps a good portion of it.

I’ve seen that acronym a couple times today with respect to convection. What is EML?

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Nah. You should move to an even cloudier climate then spend 14 hours a day complaining about cloud cover and rainfall stats for your backyard. Seems like that’s what any rational sun lover would do. 

 

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Having SAD I also need some sunlight to feel my best. But it doesn’t have to be all day every day. Just a few hours per day makes a massive difference for me.

I just remembered that the preference war thread now exists so I moved my comment there. Not fast enough I guess. 

The pattern since mid-May has been overall quite nice. But it is most years.

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7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’ve seen that acronym a couple times today with respect to convection. What is EML?

Elevated mixed layer. Basically solar radiation heats the airmass over intermountain high terrain (elevated land surface conducting directly to atmosphere), and that airmass is then advected eastward, high above the boundary layer, “capping” it.

It’s responsible for super-charging our severe events when it advects out here and is subsequently broken by surface heating and boundary layer moisture.

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2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Thought this one was nice 🥰 

D805DC64-38C7-4A36-BCE2-5D1CE0266E81.png

Saw that one... Definitely telling that all the PNW natives (especially ones that are older than like 20) are the ones loving it. I myself have never seen grass or bushes grow this quickly here.

This newest generation and cali transplants are accustomed to the 2013-2021 summers being the 'norm'... even though they are definitely not. I've said it before and I'll say it again... The next truly below average summer will be a time of reckoning for those who have been fooled into thinking it usually gets to 80°F every day in Seattle. And I'm not talking 2011... I am talking a 2001 type summer. An actually cool summer.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Having SAD I also need some sunlight to feel my best. But it doesn’t have to be all day every day. Just a few hours per day makes a massive difference for me.

Same here.   I was not really a sun lover until we moved here.    And its usually decent enough... but I do find myself really craving sun during long stretches of cloudy weather in the spring, summer, and fall.   I don't care too much about winter... we go on vacations for sun then. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Of course I do not exempt myself from this new generation... I am definitely a part of it.

I myself am only aware of this recent climate change because I've been staring at the sky since I was a little boy, like a total freak... And I enjoy my hot dogs nice and thick with extra toppings, thank you very much.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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3 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z EPS looking pretty decent for the rainstorm and troughing chances into the long range 

9DD18DB5-BD88-4595-9E25-2DE20D8AC1E1.png

The EPS gets a decidedly drier, but still cool look in the longer range.  Much more GOA ridging.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

The EPS gets a decidedly drier, but still cool look in the longer range.  Much more GOA ridging.

Would be a nice change of pace. Ready for some cooler mornings.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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image.png

Wow... That is just splendid. Much of our min high records this time of year come from evap cooling-related stratoform rain days. To set one with a mixed profile would be something else.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Of course I do not exempt myself from this new generation... I am definitely a part of it.

I myself am only aware of this recent climate change because I've been staring at the sky since I was a little boy, like a total freak... And I enjoy my hot dogs nice and thick with extra toppings, thank you very much.

The climate is always changing.  It's nothing new.  A lot of people would be shocked to know there is evidence that Glacier National Park didn't have any glaciers before the little ice age.  This is all cyclical.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Would be a nice change of pace. Ready for some cooler mornings.

Indeed.  I just want more NW flow.  Much more pleasant, and as you say cooler nights.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Would be a nice change of pace. Ready for some cooler mornings.

Nights have been annoyingly mild, but the rain has made up for it. Ironically enough, when in conjunction with the constant moisture, the recent warm nights have aided in plant growth. Cellular respiration and internal chemical reactions take place faster in an ambiently warmer environment.

Though I'm sure they won't mind a few lows in the 40s ;)

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The climate is always changing.  It's nothing new.  A lot of people would be shocked to know there is evidence that Glacier National Park didn't have any glaciers before the little ice age.  This is all cyclical.

There is an anthropogenic contribution to the observed climate change. The extent of that contribution is not knowable at this time, but fundamental radiative transfer physics dictate it must be so.

I suspect it’s significantly less than IPCC estimates, though.

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38 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

According to the NWS Portland AFD, the 12z EPS means shows a strong to extreme atmospheric river for the weekend, with IVT values of 750-1000+ kg/ms.

The only June AR I can remember was in 1985.  No doubt that led to some great stuff.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

There is an anthropogenic contribution to the observed climate change. The extent of that contribution is not knowable at this time, but fundamental radiative transfer physics dictate it must be so.

I suspect it’s significantly less than IPCC estimates, though.

I agree for the most part.  The thing is we have no way of knowing what tricks Mother Nature might have to mitigate that.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Nights have been annoyingly mild, but the rain has made up for it. Ironically enough, when in conjunction with the constant moisture, the recent warm nights have aided in plant growth. Cellular respiration and internal chemical reactions take place faster in an ambiently warmer environment.

Though I'm sure they won't mind a few lows in the 40s ;)

There were actually a lot of 40s last night which ain't bad considering.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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26 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Saw that one... Definitely telling that all the PNW natives (especially ones that are older than like 20) are the ones loving it. I myself have never seen grass or bushes grow this quickly here.

This newest generation and cali transplants are accustomed to the 2013-2021 summers being the 'norm'... even though they are definitely not. I've said it before and I'll say it again... The next truly below average summer will be a time of reckoning for those who have been fooled into thinking it usually gets to 80°F every day in Seattle. And I'm not talking 2011... I am talking a 2001 type summer. An actually cool summer.

I have lived in the same 20 mile radius my entire life (45ish years) and I am more than ready for some sun. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Wednesday may be one of our first "marine layer" days of the summer, right about on time. After a warm up into the mid 70s tomorrow, gradients build and a marine push lands onshore. Could be cloudy through midday before warming and clearing during the afternoon Wednesday.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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image.png

Not sure if this was mentioned, but the end of the 12z GEM was... 😵

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Last GEM mention was a Tim post remarking on how warm/dry it looked, I believe.

Human nature to look for hope... its all we have Justin.   Hope springs eternal.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Human nature to look for hope... its all we have Justin.   Hope springs eternal.  

 

 

 

Conflicting reports. There's even a big rainstorm in this movie during the otherwise inspiring escape sequence :( 

Edited by BLI snowman
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50 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Wednesday may be one of our first "marine layer" days of the summer, right about on time. After a warm up into the mid 70s tomorrow, gradients build and a marine push lands onshore. Could be cloudy through midday before warming and clearing during the afternoon Wednesday.

Not sure if you noticed but for anywhere east of I-5 today was a pretty solid marine layer day.    Much more so than is being shown by the ECMWF for Wednesday. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure if you noticed but for anywhere east of I-5 today was a pretty solid marine layer day.    Much more so than is being shown by the ECMWF for Wednesday. 

Today was more of an artifact of transient westerly flow associated with an exiting trough.

Wednesday's marine layer will be advected inland solely via thermal pressure gradients. More of a typical midsummer marine layer setup. But yes, today did have one.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Today was more of an artifact of transient westerly flow associated with an exiting trough.

Wednesday's marine layer will be advected inland solely via thermal pressure gradients. More of a typical midsummer marine layer setup. But yes, today did have one.

There is a trough moving through Wednesday morning.

...

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

There is a trough moving through Wednesday morning.

...

A much weaker one. But a pronounced trough, I suppose.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

GFS cutoff error painfully evident D7-8.

At some point we will have an actual dry spell.    And it will probably happen from a low finally cutting off.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

At some point we will have an actual dry spell.    And it will probably happen from a low finally cutting off.    

Yes there will be a dry spell, no it won’t come from a cutoff in such a manner.

The the GFS is just full of s**t.

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5 hours ago, Phil said:

Oh yeah we get the “southern summer” as does basically everywhere south of 40N. There’s some enhancement of that locally due to downsloping off the Appalachians and shallow local waters that heat up rapidly.

But generally speaking there’s very little difference in climatology across the SE US and Mid Atlantic during the warm season. Everyone is under the same airmass, advected in by the same Bermuda High. 

Interesting. 

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