June 2022 - Summer Begins

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

November cold/snow lol??!! 

Tell me what you think? 

https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

[BLI snowman]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Phil, I feel like the situation we are currently experiencing with ENSO is extremely unusual. Here we have an ONI peaking in spring, not only is this an unprecedented reading for MAM, almost all of the other instances where the ONI was -0.8C or lower came after significant Ninas and the ENSO anomalies though significant were rapidly fading. 

The only Nina I can find where the ONI dropped from FMA to MAM was 1955. It looks like it stayed steady in 1975 and 1985. If we are looking at ENSO 1955 and 1985 seem like the best matches at this point. 

Been feeling something coming up o us in November for a little bit.

Been 12 years since we had measurable snow here in November, so we're a little overdue now.

[Phil]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Phil, I feel like the situation we are currently experiencing with ENSO is extremely unusual. Here we have an ONI peaking in spring, not only is this an unprecedented reading for MAM, almost all of the other instances where the ONI was -0.8C or lower came after significant Ninas and the ENSO anomalies though significant were rapidly fading. 

The only Nina I can find where the ONI dropped from FMA to MAM was 1955. It looks like it stayed steady in 1975 and 1985. If we are looking at ENSO 1955 and 1985 seem like the best matches at this point. 

1955 is definitely an analog. Also not a bad QBO match.

[Doinko]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tell me what you think? 

https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

2010 was also cooling in the spring (but wasn't a Nina though) .

[Anti Marine Layer]

4 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

2010 was also cooling in the spring (but wasn't a Nina though) .

2010 sucked. Even in Southern California the ocean never warmed up. SST anomaly map had a huge purple area all summer. 

[Doinko]

10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Been feeling something coming up o us in November for a little bit.

Been 12 years since we had measurable snow here in November, so we're a little overdue now.

Haven't the last few November snow events mostly favored people up north? Would be nice to see some good amounts of snow in the Willamette Valley whenever we have another one.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

1955 is definitely an analog. Also not a bad QBO match.

I don't know how much stock you put in the PDO index, but that was also strongly negative in 1955. Negative, but not as significantly in 1985. 

[Deweydog]

19 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, a drier and more amplified regime (probably favoring ridging here) still feels like the best bet as we head into the end of summer and start of fall. Not really feeling an early jet blast for that stretch.

7/10/08

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Haven't the last few November snow events mostly favored people up north? Would be nice to see some good amounts of snow in the Willamette Valley whenever we have another one.

November cold/snow typically has a very pronounced north/south gradient due to the fact it’s predominantly advection related rather than being fed at the lower levels. 

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Haven't the last few November snow events mostly favored people up north? Would be nice to see some good amounts of snow in the Willamette Valley whenever we have another one.

November arctic events historically are the ones most likely to have a strong latitude focus, and overwhelmingly favor western WA overall. Been relatively few that have been egalitarian and really spread the wealth.

I think it's just harder at that stage to get a good, deep cold pool going to our east, so down here we typically have to more or less rely on the cold advecting in from due north for our snow chances. 

I would say the last really meaningful November airmass was late November 2014 and that was definitely more of a Fraser River event. There was also the Fraser River event in early November 2017 which gave a little snow to western WA. 

The event in mid November 2014 was more of a rare early season backdoor blast that favored southern areas. Big NWS bust with that for our area though as that storm crapped out on us. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

November cold/snow typically has a very pronounced north/south gradient due to the fact it’s predominantly advection related rather than being fed at the lower levels. 

2017 and 2006 are good examples of this, even 2010 to a lesser extent. 

[Kayla]

2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

I don't know, 1980-81 doesn't strike me as a great match for 2021-22 overall. 

Overall no, but June pattern looks to be similar.

Disclaimer this is not a forecast just noting it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

November arctic events historically are the ones most likely to have a strong latitude focus, and overwhelmingly favor western WA overall. Been relatively few that have been egalitarian and really spread the wealth.

I think it's just harder at that stage to get a good, deep cold pool going to our east, so down here we typically have to more or less rely on the cold advecting in from due north for our snow chances. 

I would say the last really meaningful November airmass was late November 2014 and that was definitely more of a Fraser River event. There was also the Fraser River event in early November 2017 which gave a little snow to western WA. 

The event in mid November 2014 was more of a rare early season backdoor blast that favored southern areas. Big NWS bust with that for our area though as that storm crapped out on us. 

 

Pretty incredible east of the Cascades though in 2014, Redmond, OR broke all-time November cold records from 1955, major snow assist on that one too. 

Seems like the 70s had a few decent November cold snaps in W. Oregon. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

2017 and 2006 are good examples of this, even 2010 to a lesser extent. 

Even 1985 was dominated by it, until it transitioned to a pretty classic low level bleed during the later stages.

[Doinko]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

November arctic events historically are the ones most likely to have a strong latitude focus, and overwhelmingly favor western WA overall. Been relatively few that have been egalitarian and really spread the wealth.

I think it's just harder at that stage to get a good, deep cold pool going to our east, so down here we typically have to more or less rely on the cold advecting in from due north for our snow chances. 

I would say the last really meaningful November airmass was late November 2014 and that was definitely more of a Fraser River event. There was also the Fraser River event in early November 2017 which gave a little snow to western WA. 

The event in mid November 2014 was more of a rare early season backdoor blast that favored southern areas. Big NWS bust with that for our area though as that storm crapped out on us. 

 

I'm hoping for a good backdoor blast at some point, it was kind of disappointing seeing the models in December show amazing cold for our area turn into a few days of wet snow.

Weather.com was showing this a few days before Christmas:

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Even 1985 was dominated by it, until it transitioned to a pretty classic low level bleed during the later stages.

That's a good point. 

Here 1955 is head and shoulders above the rest. 1985 takes the cake for longevity, but at their peak 1993 and 2010 were pretty similar in terms of temps on the coldest day. 

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pretty incredible east of the Cascades though in 2014, Redmond, OR broke all-time November cold records from 1955, major snow assist on that one too. 

Seems like the 70s had a few decent November cold snaps in W. Oregon. 

1977 (along with the end of November 1985) is probably the best example of a favorable backdoor event for western OR in November.

Really juicy, slow moving warm front on the overrunning side of that which dropped the historic snowstorm on NW OR and SW WA as it pushed northwards. Widespread 6-8" on the 22nd. Kind of ran out of juice north of here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I'm hoping for a good backdoor blast at some point, it was kind of disappointing seeing the models in December show amazing cold for our area turn into a few days of wet snow.

Well we had late February...

[Phishy Wx]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Beautiful 

those are some interesting looking seals 

[Kayla]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

1977 (along with the end of November 1985) is probably the best example of a favorable backdoor event for western OR in November.

Really juicy, slow moving warm front on the overrunning side of that which dropped the historic snowstorm on NW OR and SW WA as it pushed northwards. Widespread 6-8" on the 22nd. Kind of ran out of juice north of here. 

I really enjoyed Feb 2014. It is right up there with Jan 2017 for my favorite all-time weather events.

[Doinko]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well we had late February...

That's true, late February was pretty nice. If the winds had calmed for a bit we could've had some impressive lows but that didn't really happen. Also it was kind of too late to produce subfreezing highs or anything.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

April stats just came online for Silver Falls, looks like they had a 34/31 the 12th. The cold can really hang on in that little valley by the South Falls day use area so I figured they would put up a solid # like that. 

[Doinko]

In terms of snowfall in December, didn't Eugene set a record for snowiest December day on the 26th?

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I'm hoping for a good backdoor blast at some point, it was kind of disappointing seeing the models in December show amazing cold for our area turn into a few days of wet snow.

Weather.com was showing this a few days before Christmas:

 

As far as cold disappointments go though it can get a lot worse.

[BLI snowman]

16 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Overall no, but June pattern looks to be similar.

Disclaimer this is not a forecast just noting it.

I'd be quite alright with following 1981-82 after mid September or so. Nice dynamic cold season across the entire continent with a lot of pronounced events.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

As far as cold disappointments go though it can get a lot worse.

Yeah definitely, I still got a few inches of snow which was nice, it could've been worse.

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I really enjoyed Feb 2014. It is right up there with Jan 2017 for my favorite all-time weather events.

February 2014 is tough to beat. In addition to snowmageddon, it remains the only time the metro area has advected into the 20’s with full sunshine since 12/98.

[Doinko]

It was actually my snowiest winter since 2016/2017 surprisingly.

[Doinko]

Just now, Deweydog said:

February 2014 is tough to beat. In addition to snowmageddon, it remains the only time the metro area has advected into the 20’s with full sunshine since 12/98.

And the entire Willamette Valley had snow which was nice. In my location Jan 2017 was much better though.

How well did the models do forecasting the Feb 14 events?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

And the entire Willamette Valley had snow which was nice. In my location Jan 2017 was much better though.

How well did the models do forecasting the Feb 14 events?

Not great 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

February 2014 is tough to beat. In addition to snowmageddon, it remains the only time the metro area has advected into the 20’s with full sunshine since 12/98.

And don't forget to throw in a Seahawks Super Bowl victory! 

[BLI snowman]

11 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

In terms of snowfall in December, didn't Eugene set a record for snowiest December day on the 26th?

Yep, it was indeed. They had 8.2" that day. Pretty big time for them.

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

February 2014 is tough to beat. In addition to snowmageddon, it remains the only time the metro area has advected into the 20’s with full sunshine since 12/98.

2/17/2006? That guy was a beast. I remember that morning being pretty much clear.

[TacomaWaWx]

Pretty nice day, 63 here after a low of 47 with some sunshine. 

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

2/17/2006? That guy was a beast. I remember that morning being pretty much clear.

Should have been more specific, through the entire diurnal cycle.

Edited June 6, 2022 by Deweydog

[Doinko]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not great 

Did they forecast too much/little snow or was it something else?

[snow_wizard]

The GFS and ECMWF both keep vacillating between 1 and 3 inches for the next 10 days.  A lot of uncertainty just how wet it will be.

[Omegaraptor]

30 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

As far as cold disappointments go though it can get a lot worse.

Yeah... @Doiinko you were watching the models during January 2020 weren't you?

Models were showing a 1950 or 1969 tier extended deep freeze at some points. Ended up being a couple days of cold onshore flow drizzle. At least it was epic in the mountains.

I was not around for Jan 2005 but apparently that was an even worse rugpull. Can anyone give me the rundown on that one?

[snow_wizard]

43 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Even 1985 was dominated by it, until it transitioned to a pretty classic low level bleed during the later stages.

Yeah...1985 was epic up here.  By far the best run of freezing max temps I've ever recorded.

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Yeah... @Doiinko you were watching the models during January 2020 weren't you?

Models were showing a 1950 or 1969 tier extended deep freeze at some points. Ended up being a couple days of cold onshore flow drizzle. At least it was epic in the mountains.

I'm really new to weather, only really started looking at models and stuff in Feb 2021. Before that I just remember snow events mostly. Maybe it was a good thing I didn't look at them then.