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June 2022 - Summer Begins


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  • Longtimer
Posted (edited)

This looks like a lot of rain for places that could certainly use it. gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_17.png

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Canadian vs ECMWF vs GFS.

One of them sticks out like a sore thumb. :rolleyes:

BE60BC7D-78FD-469D-B127-31F2EC948FF6.gif

That’s borderline criminal.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Getting into the range where the GFS will probably make a significant correction within the next few cycles.

At which point it’ll (hopefully) be back on track. That error with the ridge off Baja California is throwing off the rest of the run.

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  • Longtimer

Temps this month have been in the goldilocks zone. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
3 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Yeah, these temperatures are really comfortable. Not too hot.

And half the days have been dry. 

 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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43 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

And half the days have been dry. 

 

Yeah here they have been mostly dry except Saturday and Sunday. It would be better if the rain doesn't keep falling on weekends though! Otherwise I've been enjoying the weather this month.

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31 minutes ago, jakeinthevalley said:

Looking forward to a rather damp graduation this weekend at UW?!

We'll be dry under cover at Husky Stadium, but if my daughter is sitting on the field, she may need to revisit her outfit of choice!!

Decent chance its dry in Seattle on Saturday afternoon.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Definitely a much nicer way to be in a rainy pattern.   If we have to have rain almost every day this is the way to do it.  Although tomorrow and Friday get pretty ridiculous again.    

Hawaii has rain showers every day, but they can be refreshing rather than freezing cold. 

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69/54 today…was pretty nice with some sunshine this afternoon. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, T-Town said:

Pretty spectacular evening over here on the west side. 

Here too... had dinner on the deck.   A rare event this year so far.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Here too... had dinner on the deck.   A rare event this year so far.  

Had a steak gathering the other day on the back porch. Very nice weather, just after the last thunderstorms left the area.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Interesting how tomorrow has become the really wet day.   Most runs earlier had tomorrow still being dry.   Now Friday-Sunday don't look too wet... in western WA at least.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Interesting how tomorrow has become the really wet day.   Most runs earlier had tomorrow still being dry.   Now Friday-Sunday don't look too wet... in western WA at least.

It's so dry that my 7" guess on monthly rain is about to be blown out before the 15th. Darn this drought!

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8 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Is the drought situation that bad there? Seems like they have been getting a decent amount of rain lately. SW into Colorado seems to be the worst right now. I just looked at Tulsa and they are running about average for precip year to date. 

Oh yeah you're right about the rain they've been getting recently, so I think I'm wrong. Maybe some possible drought development looking at some of the forecasted precip anomalies for the summer? I'm not fully sure though. 

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  • Longtimer

Consensus seems to be building for a very damp weekend up here. GFS gives us about 2.5" EURO going with about 3.25" by late Sunday night. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Interesting how tomorrow has become the really wet day.   Most runs earlier had tomorrow still being dry.   Now Friday-Sunday don't look too wet... in western WA at least.

Indeed.  This run is much better for the weekend.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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The GFS has some colder / drier looking troughs coming up for week two.  Some pretty ridiculous minus temp anoms being shown, and then some possible warmth.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS has some colder / drier looking troughs coming up for week two.  Some pretty ridiculous minus temp anoms being shown, and then some possible warmth.

The operational was a huge outlier in the long range. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS has some colder / drier looking troughs coming up for week two.  Some pretty ridiculous minus temp anoms being shown, and then some possible warmth.

Sub 540 thicknesses next weekend. Would be unfortunate timing since I'll be at a music festival at The Gorge. Beats being 100 like it sometimes is out there this time of year though.

  • Snow 1

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17.75"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

-2/22: 0.25"

-2/24: 0.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

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Tim finally gets his 1988 repeat on the Euro.

The country burns, with no safe haven to escape to. Just the way he likes it.

B5CC5EC8-3CE3-4829-AC35-8AD71F2D39D1.png

 

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47 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS has some colder / drier looking troughs coming up for week two.  Some pretty ridiculous minus temp anoms being shown, and then some possible warmth.

Bring the heat. 80s and 90s would be so nice about now. 

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50 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The operational was a huge outlier in the long range. 

The ECMWF shows something similar in the closer range.  I think a chilly and relatively dry trough is pretty likely before any hot weather.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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Better enjoy this forecast while I can.  Not sure how many we will have left to enjoy before summer.  Looks cool, which is perfect for outdoor days working in the yard, hiking, biking, walking, hard-core ham-boning!  

Screen Shot 2022-06-09 at 12.21.46 AM.png

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15 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Bring the heat. 80s and 90s would be so nice about now. 

No BC fire season this year?

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35 minutes ago, Phil said:

No BC fire season this year?

It’ll probably be a pretty quiet fire season.  Most of the province is on flood watch not fire watch atm.  Seasonal temperatures without much rain would probably be the best case scenario over the next few weeks. Bring the snow pack down slowly 

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  • Longtimer

Mostly cloudy with a low of 57 this morning. Looking like a soaker down here (for June) starting tonight through the first half of the weekend.

I would characterize the first 1/3 of June as warm, wet and humid. Most places are running decent positive departures month to date. Might be due for some cooler anomalies starting next week.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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  • Longtimer

That said, the mild and wet weather has supercharged the vegetation the last few weeks. It’s about the lushest I’ve seen it this time of year since probably the early 2010s.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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  • Longtimer
6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That said, the mild and wet weather has supercharged the vegetation the last few weeks. It’s about the lushest I’ve seen it this time of year since probably the early 2010s.

Agreed. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 hours ago, NWbyNW said:

Better enjoy this forecast while I can.  Not sure how many we will have left to enjoy before summer.  Looks cool, which is perfect for outdoor days working in the yard, hiking, biking, walking, hard-core ham-boning!  

Screen Shot 2022-06-09 at 12.21.46 AM.png

Good for hiking in a sweatshirt and jeans. Something like 72 is not too hot and not too cold.

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  • Longtimer
8 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

The three bears must be enjoying them too.

And this friend. 

72379920-9A5B-4B9B-8A53-37E937160F31.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 hours ago, Phil said:

Tim finally gets his 1988 repeat on the Euro.

The country burns, with no safe haven to escape to. Just the way he likes it.

B5CC5EC8-3CE3-4829-AC35-8AD71F2D39D1.png

 

Starting much later than in 1988.    I remember that year well and the grass was already dry and burnt in Minnesota by early June which is extremely unusual. 

Locally... I can't imagine a pattern right now that would result in 16-day period with only one day of rain totaling .05 here in the foothills of the WA Cascades.    But that is what happened from June 11-27 in 1988 even with a rare developing Nina in the spring.    Of course that is not unusual here in the summer, but seems unlikely this year.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Starting much later in the 1988.    I remember that year well and the grass was already dry and burnt in Minnesota by early June which is extremely unusual. 

Locally... I can't imagine a pattern that would result in 16-day period with only one day of rain totaling .05 here in the foothills of the WA Cascades.    But that is what happened from June 11-27 in 1988 even with a rare developing Nina in the spring.    Of course that is not unusual here in the summer, but seems unlikely this year.

May 2018 developed that pattern quite easily. Lol

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Low of 55 this morning…much anticipated rainstorm has started 0.02” this morning. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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  • Longtimer

Nice pleasant early summer morn. Back to work from home on Thursdays. 

7B1D72E5-28FC-46B8-A54D-50E6C153911A.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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