June 2022 - Summer Begins

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

7am... The whole lower column is very moist and there's a saturated layer around 5k ft up. Spotty drizzle.

10am... Trough begins to exit and drier air filters lower into the column. Important distinction, it it not mixing around 800-700mb, the drying is a result of differential advection. Regardless, the marine layer shallows due to the exiting trough, but remains vigilant below 5k ft. Cloudy skies remain with a moist column, though solar warming begins to mix the near sfc, below the PBL.

1pm... Solar heating maximizes as mixing occurs throughout the entire lower column. A saturated layer appears around 3-4k ft, this time representing fair weather cumulus, a result of sfc convection. DP's follow mixing ratio and thermals follow dry adiabat until the EL.

4pm... Drying progresses downward, further shallowing the marine layer. Afternoon heating further lowers RH, and because of the warmer layer aloft, sfc parcels can no longer make it high enough to condense. A completely sunny afternoon ensues.

It's very much a mixture of both. A stratoform marine layer erodes due to mixing, then turns cumuloform as sfc parcels convect via afternoon heating. Though in the evening, as a result of drier, warmer air advecting aloft, cumulus clouds fight an increasingly tough battle, and concede to blue skies. That is a result of the exiting trough in the morning and entering shortwave ridge in the afternoon. Could lead to an overperformance in high temps.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

7am... The whole lower column is very moist and there's a saturated layer around 5k ft up. Spotty drizzle.

10am... Trough begins to exit and drier air filters lower into the column. Important distinction, it it not mixing around 800-700mb, the drying is a result of differential advection. Regardless, the marine layer shallows due to the exiting trough, but remains vigilant below 5k ft. Cloudy skies remain with a moist column, though solar warming begins to mix the near sfc, below the PBL.

1pm... Solar heating maximizes as mixing occurs throughout the entire lower column. A saturated layer appears around 3-4k ft, this time representing fair weather cumulus, a result of sfc convection. DP's follow mixing ratio and thermals follow dry adiabat until the EL.

4pm... Drying progresses downward, further shallowing the marine layer. Afternoon heating further lowers RH, and because of the warmer layer aloft, sfc parcels can no longer make it high enough to condense. A completely sunny afternoon ensues.

It's very much a mixture of both. A stratoform marine layer erodes due to mixing, then turns cumuloform as sfc parcels convect via afternoon heating. Though in the evening, as a result of drier, warmer air advecting aloft, cumulus clouds fight an increasingly tough battle, and concede to blue skies. That is a result of the exiting trough in the morning and entering shortwave ridge in the afternoon. Could lead to an overperformance in high temps.

It won't be a completely sunny afternoon... this is at 5 p.m. per the ECMWF.   Clouds at multiple levels and looks partly sunny to me. 

 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It won't be a completely sunny afternoon... this is at 5 p.m. per the ECMWF.   Clouds at multiple levels and looks partly sunny to me. 

 

High cloud coverage may be thick. That will only act as another monkey wrench into the forecast... My previous post forgot to even mention that! 

The Euro usually underestimates afternoon heating, as you know and have mentioned before. Given the thermal profile aloft, how long low clouds will last will be directly dependent on how quickly things heat up. Too fast and the warm air aloft prevents clouds. Too slow, and we're stuck with stratocumulus all day alongside thickening high clouds.

In all I have no idea how warm Wednesday will be. Real talk, that day has some of the widest potential range of high temperatures of any day you can get in the summer. Coolest is in the low 60s, warmest mid 70s. Lots of moving parts.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

High cloud coverage may be thick. That will only act as another monkey wrench into the forecast... My previous post forgot to even mention that! 

The Euro usually underestimates afternoon heating, as you know and have mentioned before. Given the thermal profile aloft, how long low clouds will last will be directly dependent on how quickly things heat up. Too fast and the warm air aloft prevents clouds. Too slow, and we're stuck with stratocumulus all day alongside thickening high clouds.

In all I have no idea how warm Wednesday will be. Real talk, that day has some of the widest potential range of high temperatures of any day you can get in the summer. Coolest is in the low 60s, warmest mid 70s. Lots of moving parts.

High and mid level clouds that day.   Probably 68 at SEA.   

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

High cloud coverage may be thick. That will only act as another monkey wrench into the forecast... My previous post forgot to even mention that! 

The Euro usually underestimates afternoon heating, as you know and have mentioned before. Given the thermal profile aloft, how long low clouds will last will be directly dependent on how quickly things heat up. Too fast and the warm air aloft prevents clouds. Too slow, and we're stuck with stratocumulus all day alongside thickening high clouds.

In all I have no idea how warm Wednesday will be. Real talk, that day has some of the widest potential range of high temperatures of any day you can get in the summer. Coolest is in the low 60s, warmest mid 70s. Lots of moving parts.

We'll need to take a wait and see approach.

[Meatyorologist]

If it weren't for the high clouds Wednesday, I'd actually be betting against the Euro. You heard me right. It has high temps way on the low end of fcst and keeps clouds around for longer because of it.

With high clouds, who knows how slowly things will heat up. Could even be cloudy all day... 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 hours ago, Phil said:

Houston TX might have the worst climate in the US.

Heat indices 110°F every day and it’s only early June.

Someone from work just moved there. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

High cloud coverage may be thick. That will only act as another monkey wrench into the forecast... My previous post forgot to even mention that! 

The Euro usually underestimates afternoon heating, as you know and have mentioned before. Given the thermal profile aloft, how long low clouds will last will be directly dependent on how quickly things heat up. Too fast and the warm air aloft prevents clouds. Too slow, and we're stuck with stratocumulus all day alongside thickening high clouds.

In all I have no idea how warm Wednesday will be. Real talk, that day has some of the widest potential range of high temperatures of any day you can get in the summer. Coolest is in the low 60s, warmest mid 70s. Lots of moving parts.

Don’t get pulled into the vortex

[Doinko]

https://www.kptv.com/2022/06/07/small-earthquake-felt-camas-area/

Kind of unrelated but a 2.8 earthquake happened near Camas.

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

High and mid level clouds that day.   Probably 68 at SEA.   

I'll go for a 66°F. We'll see.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

https://www.kptv.com/2022/06/07/small-earthquake-felt-camas-area/

Kind of unrelated but a 2.8 earthquake happened near Camas.

This ain’t a seismology forum, pal

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

This ain’t a seismology forum, pal

Yeah, I just thought it was kind of interesting.

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

https://www.kptv.com/2022/06/07/small-earthquake-felt-camas-area/

Kind of unrelated but a 2.8 earthquake happened near Camas.

It’s weird. We were taking an evening walk at Lacamas Lake park, which was pretty close to the epicenter, and didn’t feel anything. I got texts from a few people in East Vancouver who noticed it though.

Edited June 7, 2022 by Cascadia_Wx

[Meatyorologist]

Next person to make a seismology thread gets the last four digits of Jesse's social security number.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 hours ago, The Blob said:

Who wants to go to the south east desert Saturday?

San Diego County has a campground out at Borrego Springs, thought about camping there last June, but decided against it. 

[TT-SEA]

I really enjoy discussing weather details with @Meatyorologist

A great source of information on our local weather and microclimates without all the anger and trolling.    Preferences shouldn't matter.   

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Next person to make a seismology thread gets the last four digits of Jesse's social security number.

I think Mr Marine layer is way ahead of you.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

I think Mr Marine layer is way ahead of you.

Not that it matters... The answer is obvious, of course. It is 1954, the coldest summer on record at PDX.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

San Diego County has a campground out at Borrego Springs, thought about camping there last June, but decided against it. 

The Pacific Crest trail goes pretty close to there 

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Yeah, I just thought it was kind of interesting.

Just giving you a hard time. 99% of my posts are garbage. You can talk about anything you want in here unless it’s about weather preferences or vaccine cancer. Keep those separate.

[Deweydog]

16 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

High cloud coverage may be thick. That will only act as another monkey wrench into the forecast... My previous post forgot to even mention that! 

The Euro usually underestimates afternoon heating, as you know and have mentioned before. Given the thermal profile aloft, how long low clouds will last will be directly dependent on how quickly things heat up. Too fast and the warm air aloft prevents clouds. Too slow, and we're stuck with stratocumulus all day alongside thickening high clouds.

In all I have no idea how warm Wednesday will be. Real talk, that day has some of the widest potential range of high temperatures of any day you can get in the summer. Coolest is in the low 60s, warmest mid 70s. Lots of moving parts.

HCS???

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

Just giving you a hard time. 99% of my posts are garbage. You can talk about anything you want in here unless it’s about weather preferences or vaccine cancer. Keep those separate.

What if I got vaccine cancer from my weather preferences keeping me in a damp basement all summer breathing toxic mold? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

44 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

He never gets gang raped

 

edit - I haven’t watched in years but I thought he convinces them he’ll bite their ducks off or something so they just beat the crap out of him instead….maybe it’s implied they have their way with him after that or I’m just totally misremembering. You could be right

I always thought he was savagely gang raped, and that seems to be the mostly widely believed interpretation, but I do see there are some sites and blogs that claim he was only brutally beaten instead. 

Edited June 7, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Meatyorologist]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The Pacific Crest trail goes pretty close to there 

That's a bucket list item for me

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This weekend looks like a Grade 0 to 0.5 atmospheric river. Doesn't look anymore impressive on the GEM. I do see the GEM is pretty much the opposite of the GFS by the end of the run. I agree with Phil, the GFS for later next week looks exactly like it was showing for this week-weekend and look how that turned out. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

That's a bucket list item for me

Thru hiking? I’d love to do it too. Always been a dream.

[RentonHill]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What if I got vaccine cancer from my weather preferences keeping me in a damp basement all summer breathing toxic mold? 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This weekend looks like a Grade 0 to 0.5 atmospheric river. Doesn't look anymore impressive on the GEM. I do see the GEM is pretty much the opposite of the GFS by the end of the run. I agree with Phil, the GFS for later next week looks exactly like it was showing for this week-weekend and look how that turned out. 

The GFS is gonna be a big outlier on its own ensemble mean, even more-so relative to the EPS/GEPS.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Thru hiking? I’d love to do it too. Always been a dream.

Yep. South to north, leaving sometime around early April, some year in the indefinite future.

Though with a little more agw i might be able to leave in march 

[RentonHill]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I always thought he was savagely gang raped, and that seems to be the mostly widely believed interpretation, but I do see there are some sites and blogs that claim he was only brutally beaten instead. 

Thank you. I can rest now. 

[Meatyorologist]

12 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

HCS???

Been a fat minute since i've heard that thrown around here

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Thank you. I can rest now. 

Is it weird that I don't think Stephen King is a good writer, but I really like Shawshank Redemption and Stand By Me? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

61/45 today, currently 45. 0.77" of rain today 2.45" on the month a nourishing 84.58" on the water year. 

 

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Is it weird that I don't think Stephen King is a good writer, but I really like Shawshank Redemption and Stand By Me? 

If Shawshank is on, and it’s on A LOT, I can’t help but watch it. Same with A Few Good Men, which is a testament to my shameful infatuation with Aaron Sorkin. Perhaps AFGM is more related to the fact it was released in early December 1992…

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Yep. South to north, leaving sometime around early April, some year in the indefinite future.

Though with a little more agw i might be able to leave in march 

If it's really something you want to do, do not put it off. I was thinking about the PCT the other day, and that I thought about doing it many times and likely never will. It was not a dream or anything like that, but it is still kind of a weird feeling when you realize you will never do something you always thought about doing. I'm 37, have 5 kids age 3 months to 9 1/2, I have a ton of work obligations, immediate and extended family obligations, a property to take care of, a ton of animals...etc... All choices I made and I'm content with my life, but if we want once we have spent a little time as adults we can look back and see things we could have should have or would have done differently. Anyway, if it's a true bucket list item, don't wait. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

If Shawshank is on, and it’s on A LOT, I can’t help but watch it. Same with A Few Good Men, which is a testament to my shameful infatuation with Aaron Sorkin. Perhaps AFGM is more related to the fact it was released in early December 1992…

My GOD that was a great time to be alive!

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If it's really something you want to do, do not put it off. I was thinking about the PCT the other day, and that I thought about doing it many times and likely never will. It was not a dream or anything like that, but it is still kind of a weird feeling when you realize you will never do something you always thought about doing. I'm 37, have 5 kids age 3 months to 9 1/2, I have a ton of work obligations, immediate and extended family obligations, a property to take care of, a ton of animals...etc... All choices I made and I'm content with my life, but if we want once we have spent a little time as adults we can look back and see things we could have should have or would have done differently. Anyway, if it's a true bucket list item, don't wait. 

Thanks for this wisdom. I hope I get the chance to do it within the next five years.

[MossMan]

19 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

If Shawshank is on, and it’s on A LOT, I can’t help but watch it. Same with A Few Good Men, which is a testament to my shameful infatuation with Aaron Sorkin. Perhaps AFGM is more related to the fact it was released in early December 1992…

I feel the same way when Happy Gilmore is on. 

[RentonHill]

Euro

[SilverFallsAndrew]

And that's more like it!