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June 2022 - Summer Begins


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We will see if we can break a rainfall record today…most rainfall I’ve recorded in a single day in June is 0.88” I believe…but never have hit a +1” total. Maybe we can do it today or get close. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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  • Longtimer

Raining and 52.

.10” so far on the day, 1.95” for the month, 30.71” for the year. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Here is a comparison of SSTAs between right now and the same day in 1988.    And I know Phil is going to say the current Nina is stronger due to differential heating... but its still interesting.

 

2022 (2).png

1988.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
13 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

D*mn son. 

50E60999-396D-4FDD-ADBF-2A72753251CE.jpeg

It’s going to be impressive, and pretty far south too. The valleys will get quite a bit of shadowing. I wouldn’t be shocked if I-5 stations in W. Oregon are under an inch. We should get 2.5-3.5” up here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Major dumpage now. Glad I mowed yesterday. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Major dumpage now. Glad I mowed yesterday. 

Just sprinkles here so far.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, GobBluth said:

GFS moves to a large ridge forecast, at hour 360. 

The GFS will probably show a clown range ridge every other run for the rest of summer. That’s the pattern it has been wanting to default to all spring and has busted each time.

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is a comparison of SSTAs between right now and the same day in 1988.    And I know Phil is going to say the current Nina is stronger due to differential heating... but its still interesting.

 

2022 (2).png

1988.png

Also easy to see why 1988 was warmer/drier up there.

Those warm SSTAs south of the equator in the Indo-Pacific are a major driver of the pattern observed this spring/early summer, and were lacking in 1988.

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  • Longtimer

Each GFS run keeps upping precip totals down here. Now showing around 4" here through the weekend. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

This run also showing snow for the high Cascades and Wallowas late Sunday night into Monday morning. By 5pm Monday this run gives us 4.37" of rain. Incredible totals in the Blues/Wallowas and across Northern Idaho. 

prateptype_cat.us_nw.png

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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29 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Each GFS run keeps upping precip totals down here. Now showing around 4" here through the weekend. 

Early on this run looks like a solid cave to the Euro/CMC. Feature off Baja Cali much less prominent. Maybe it won’t cut-off the next trough for once. 🤞

Edit: Close but maybe no cigar.

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  • Longtimer

Pretty cold trough next weekend. LOL

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
21 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

NWS Portland AFD mentioned that in terms of IVT values, this AR is in the top five in the past 10 years here.

Wonder where it ranks for June. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
Posted (edited)

This is phenomenal. Widespread 4-6" totals in the Cascades. Our two wettest June's look like they are 1984 and 1947 by a large margin. Seems to be a chance we could get into the conversation with those ones if this were to pan out.  

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

If it verifies I might try to head to the eastern Gorge towards The Dalles and get a hike in. Probably will be much nicer over there.

My wife really wants to go camping soon. 

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It’s going to be impressive, and pretty far south too. The valleys will get quite a bit of shadowing. I wouldn’t be shocked if I-5 stations in W. Oregon are under an inch. We should get 2.5-3.5” up here. 

0.10” so far this morning…excited to see how much rain we manage by midnight I get the feeling we will break the June monthly total record and daily total record today. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Good Spokane AFD

DISCUSSION...

...UNUSUALLY WET WEATHER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Today and Tonight: Our next multi-day period of wet weather will
begin today and persist into Monday. Rain will spread into the
Cascades this morning and become heavy along the Cascade Crest
this afternoon and evening. Precipitation guidance from the
Weather Prediction Center has trended wetter for the Cascades with
1.5 inches and 3 inches of rain along the Cascade Crest by Friday
morning. The combination of the spring melt and runoff from the
rain event over the next 24 hours will likely push the Stehekin
River above Flood Stage by this weekend. Other rivers fed by
runoff from the Crest will experience rises this weekend. The
Entiat is expected to go above Action Stage while the Wenatchee
and Methow Rivers will continue to flow swiftly.

Precipitation today and tonight will be delivered to our region by
an atmospheric river. This phenomenon is common in the fall and
winter, but quite unusual in June. An abnormally strong Polar Jet
with a core of wind speeds between 100-130kts will be directed
over the Washington Cascades today and tonight. With origins from
the subtropics, our plume of moisture will feature precipitable 
water values of 1 to 1.25 inches (200 percent of normal). The 
combination of strong southwesterly flow and deep moisture will 
drench the Cascades and likely deliver a quarter to half inch of 
rain to mountainous portions of northeast Washington and far north
Idaho.

Friday and Saturday: Moisture will continue to be pumped into
Oregon, Idaho, and Washington Friday and Saturday. Precipitable 
water values will remain high Fri and Fri night (1 to 1.25 
inches). Fortunately for the Washington Cascades, the atmospheric 
river will sink southward into Oregon. Rain amounts for Friday 
into Friday night should be less than an inch for the Cascade 
Crest. However, Friday into Saturday will be quite wet for the
Idaho Panhandle as the rich plume of moisture is lifted over the
mountainous terrain. Ensemble based guidance suggests that the
high terrain of Shoshone county will have a 50 to 60 percent
chance of an inch of rain between Friday morning and Sunday
morning. Valley locations will have a high chance of a half inch
during that same time frame.

The environment the next several days is different than the
environment we had last weekend. The instability profile and 
winds aloft are much different. The flash flooding events of June 
3 and 5 featured weaker flow aloft and deep instability resulting
in slow moving thunderstorms. The environment the next few days 
will not have much surface based CAPE and winds aloft will be 
pretty strong. Much of the precipitation will be forced 
orographically. Rain rates in the mountains may be high at times, 
but not as intense as what we saw with thunderstorms last weekend.
We will be keeping an eye on Saturday's instability since there
should be breaks in the clouds to aid in low level destabilization.
But at this time, model soundings do not look impressive with 
lackluster mid-level lapse rates suggesting weak updrafts. /GKoch

Sunday through Monday: This period exhibits a considerable amount of 
model variability and notable run-to-run inconsistency. The 00z 
ECMWF would suggest a rather wet period in store for much of the 
CWA, as a potent shortwave trough off the Pacific Northwest coast 
acquires a negative tilt as it approaches the Inland Northwest 
Sunday evening. The 00z GFS is considerably faster, with development 
of a closed low entering southern Canada by 12z Monday and most 
precipitation directed south and east of the area. The 00z CMC is in 
between the faster GFS and slower ECMWF solutions. The character of 
each of the model ensemble suites would suggest that the ECMWF 
deterministic solution is on the slow/wet side, whereas the GFS is 
on the fast/dry side. Considering typical model biases (GFS often 
too progressive; ECMWF often too sluggish with deep troughs), think 
a consensus/ensemble-based approach is best for this period. 
However, think the NBM guidance is too dry, as it often computes 
PoPs that are much too low in these wet patterns. The deterministic 
CMC (a roughly middle-of-the-road solution) is also much lower with 
QPF than the ensemble mean for our region. With all of this in mind, 
increased PoPs for the CWA for the Sunday through Monday period by a 
general broad brush of ten percent or so (which may yet be 
conservative). Noteworthy here is that the trajectory of this system 
from a more southerly/southwesterly direction would favor less of a 
rain shadow east of the Cascades than the predecessor events; thus, 
PoPs are mentionable for the lower Columbia Basin for this period.

The strength of this system, particularly as it comes on the heels 
of a wet period late this week into Saturday, makes me a little 
concerned about heavy-rain potential. Consider the following: By 
late-day Monday, the deterministic ECMWF has almost two inches of 
precipitation accumulated at KGEG (i.e., Thursday through Monday). 
Though this is almost twice the EC ensemble mean, the large spread 
above the ensemble mean indicates the potential for heavy rainfall. 
This would be particularly problematic in the higher terrain, for 
obvious reasons. It is worth keeping a close eye on this period, as 
pattern recognition suggests potential for some localized flooding. 
Such potential would be exacerbated by any embedded convection that 
can develop, though model soundings so far exhibit very little 
instability.

Monday has the potential to be rather cool as the trough swings 
through the region. Highs may be mostly in the 60s in the lower 
elevations, with 40s and 50s in the higher terrain.

Monday night through Thursday: Deterministic and ensemble solutions 
are not in good agreement for this period, with considerable timing 
differences noted among the various models. There should be a period 
of shortwave ridging in the Tuesday-Wednesday time period, though 
there is at least a subset of solutions that depict at least higher-
terrain shower activity on one or both days. By Thursday, a deep 
trough should pivot toward the West Coast, but there is large 
variability in its speed/depth. This would hint at increasing 
chances of precipitation late in the week, but given the large 
uncertainty by this point, near-climatological PoPs seem warranted 
for Thursday. The overall pattern evolution would favor warming 
temperatures from the anomalously cool conditions expected on 
Monday, but most of the extended period should remain below average. 
/CMS
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8 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

12z Euro already upped totals for today by 0.2-0.3image.thumb.png.d715e0305927526e92f832655a3db710.png

I'm pretty sure the 12z drier than the 00z last night though.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 21.75" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1", 2/2: Tr, 2/21: 1.5", 2/22: 0.75", 2/23: 1.5", 2/24: 1")

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  • Longtimer

Models now converging on another wet weekend next week. LOL

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Models now converging on another wet weekend next week. LOL

Let the good times roll! 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

My gf asked if I set up the sprinkler system for the yard yet😂😂😂😂

I thought about maybe this weekend.  nope.  Gunna wait until July probably

somehow Spokane is still slightly below normal on annual rainfall

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  • Longtimer
Posted (edited)

Up to .32” on the day. 
Mountains keep popping up in my driveway…I have a lot of projects to do/complete. 

A90CD30C-C56C-4D72-BFD3-C0B48690B9B8.jpeg

Edited by MossMan
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Mossmans still got some rain related sickness it appears! Up to 0.28” now. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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  • Longtimer
29 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Mossmans still got some rain related sickness it appears! Up to 0.28” now. 

Yeah it’s another day of uncontrollable vomiting. 🤢🤮

Now getting random strong gusts of wind on top of the moderate rain…A November to remember! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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76F and cloudy. Occasionally a sprinkle.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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57 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yeah it’s another day of uncontrollable vomiting. 🤢🤮

Now getting random strong gusts of wind on top of the moderate rain…A November to remember! 

We are playing the long game now Randy.  I think the pattern might finally transition to a more favorable summer-like set up after next weekend... guessing around 6/21 which is timed well with the actual beginning of astronomical summer.   And right when the days start getting shorter!    But hey... we have to take what we can get this year.   👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We are playing the long game now Randy.  I think the pattern might finally transition to a more favorable summer-like set up after next weekend... guessing around 6/21 which is timed well with the actual beginning of astronomical summer.   And right when the days start getting shorter!    But hey... we have to take what we can get this year.   👍

I think there might be a window in early/mid July with warmer than average temperatures based on the Euro weeklies.

There are hints of an MJO orbit through the west-central Pacific around that time. This is what I look for in pin-pointing western warmth.

If it happens, then there could be a 1-2 week interlude from the background state next month. Doesn’t mean it will verify, but there’s a window opening up there.

B4177A86-1692-445C-845C-697A2ABB38E1.jpeg

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4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Weeklies

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-z500_anom-1654732800-1654732800-1658707200-10.gif

Terrain feedback... heat differential...  blah blah blah.  

I think we will look back and say summer really started during the last week of June this year.    

Side note... the above is not a rip on Phil.   He has actually been nailing it for the last few months.  👍

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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16 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think there might be a window in early/mid July with warmer than average temperatures based on the Euro weeklies.

There are hints of an MJO orbit through the west-central Pacific around that time. This is what I look for in pin-pointing western warmth.

If it happens, then there could be a 1-2 week interlude from the background state next month. Doesn’t mean it will verify, but there’s a window opening up there.

B4177A86-1692-445C-845C-697A2ABB38E1.jpeg

I think you are saying something different.   You are talking about the potential for a genuine warm spell and that would be fine... but some of us are just looking for the nearly daily rain to end which is when it starts actually feeling like summer around here.  Looks like it will rain on 8 or 9 of the next 10 days which is not summer-like.  We can have a summery pattern with temps around normal or even cooler than normal... all we need is dry days to become the default and that happens almost every summer.  The only question is when will it happen.

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think you are saying something different.   You are talking about the potential for a genuine warm spell and that would be fine... but some of us are just looking for the nearly daily rain to end which is when it starts actually feeling like summer around here.  Looks like it will rain on 8 or 9 of the next 10 days which is not summer-like.  We can have a summery pattern with temps around normal or even cooler than normal... all we need is dry days to become the default and that happens almost every summer.  The only question is when will it happen.

Year without a summer? 

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4 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

0.10” so far this morning…excited to see how much rain we manage by midnight I get the feeling we will break the June monthly total record and daily total record today. 

I sure hope we do! If it’s this chilly and wet, might as well get some records to show for it.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Terrain feedback... heat differential...  blah blah blah.  

I think we will look back and say summer really started during the last week of June this year.    

Side note... the above is not a rip on Phil.   He has actually been nailing it for the last few months.  👍

 

I’ve actually been underestimating the troughing. Lol.

And yes, the EPS weeklies are notorious for over-emphasizing the 4CH influence in NW North America.

For example, here’s the trend for June 22nd over last month. Note the correction with time.

6C37770A-54D0-402F-A0A3-047E5FBC00C7.gif

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ve actually been underestimating the troughing. Lol.

And yes, the EPS weeklies are notorious for over-emphasizing the 4CH influence in NW North America.

For example, here’s the trend for June 22nd over last month. Note the correction with time.

6C37770A-54D0-402F-A0A3-047E5FBC00C7.gif

On the other hand... the last week of June has actually become a little less troughy over the last 3 runs of the weeklies.   Just because it has a bias or tendency does not mean it will always end up much more troughy than shown.    

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

On the other hand... the last week of June has actually become a little less troughy over the last 3 runs of the weeklies.   Just because it has a bias or tendency does not mean it will always end up much more troughy than shown.    

That is true as well. And it’s very unlikely the entire summer is wall to wall troughing; some of that ridging is likely to verify.

But that stationary reservoir of heat over NW-North America is largely a model artifact.

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Absolutely dumping rain out there… And this previous “break” which appeared to be coming in earlier has since been filled in by yet more rain bands.

Shadowing has been strangely weak and does not incluce my house. It’s a thin band covering a line from Port Gamble to Everett, and even then it’s inconsistent and only comprised of just lighter rain, not a cessation.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

That is true as well. And it’s very unlikely the entire summer is wall to wall troughing; some of that ridging is likely to verify.

But that stationary reservoir of heat over NW-North America is largely a model artifact.

A big ridge over the PNW is the not only way to get summer-like weather here.    

Look at July 1988 for example.    That month ended up -1.8 at SEA but it only rained on 4 days and on 5 days out here in the foothills.    In other words... dry days became the default.    It happens almost every summer.    

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