June 2022 - Summer Begins

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Time to replace it with the PFS?

PFS might not be any better, but at least it would learn from its biases…

…eventually.

[Phil]

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

The PFS scores much higher than the gfs but still well below the euro

I’m no match for Dr. No.

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Time to replace it with the PFS?

I vote for the UJEAS

[snow_wizard]

Hopefully this AR will lead to a big GOA ridge like it usually does in the winter.  The EPS strongly hints at it with a big PNA drop next week.  A further east trough axis should make things a little bit better.  Little doubt this is going to be one of the wettest Apr - June periods on record regardless.

[Phil]

PNW is an oasis.

 

[snow_wizard]

41 minutes ago, Phil said:

PNW is an oasis.

 

Not shocking.  Summers with anomalous troughing in the NW are normally horrible for much of the country.

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

PNW is an oasis.

 

Hopefully next winter the PNW is still a cold oasis and the polar vortex relocates there and makes 1992-93 look like 2014-15 in comparison!

[TT-SEA]

25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not shocking.  Summers with anomalous troughing in the NW are normally horrible for much of the country.

And we could be warmer than normal and still be an oasis for most of the country.  

[TT-SEA]

Any ideas on our big leaf maple?   It's just not right this year.    The top pic is right now and the bottom pic was last July.    Either it's really slow this year or it has bigger problems.    It's had about 100 inches of rain since the pic from last July so I going to assume it's not from a lack of water.    Could definitely be remnants of the 3 day heat wave last June or the unusually cold and cloudy spring or both.    But I went back through pics from the last 15 years and it's never looked like this thinned out in June.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro blesses us. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Any ideas on our big leaf maple?   It's just not right this year.    The top pic is right now and the bottom pic was last July.    Either it's really slow this year or it has bigger problems.    It's had about 100 inches of rain since the pic from last July so I going to assume it's not from a lack of water.    Could definitely be remnants of the 3 day heat wave last June or the unusually cold and cloudy spring or both.    But I went back through pics from the last 15 years and it's never looked like this thinned out in June.  

An instance of a well-known phenomenon. Probably related to climate change.

https://www.washington.edu/news/2021/09/30/bigleaf-maple-decline-tied-to-hotter-drier-summers-in-washington/

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

An instance of a well-known phenomenon. Probably related to climate change.

https://www.washington.edu/news/2021/09/30/bigleaf-maple-decline-tied-to-hotter-drier-summers-in-washington/

What is interesting is that side that faces the sun is more full (opposite side of pic)... so maybe its just really slow this year.

[Kayla]

12z Euro is....not very Tim friendly.

 

[Phil]

29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Any ideas on our big leaf maple?   It's just not right this year.    The top pic is right now and the bottom pic was last July.    Either it's really slow this year or it has bigger problems.    It's had about 100 inches of rain since the pic from last July so I going to assume it's not from a lack of water.    Could definitely be remnants of the 3 day heat wave last June or the unusually cold and cloudy spring or both.    But I went back through pics from the last 15 years and it's never looked like this thinned out in June.  

Hard to tell but that looks like the effects from anthracnose fungus, which is most evident after cool and/or wet weather. Happens to certain trees here (esp Sycamores) if there are cool temperatures during the developmental stages of foliage.

If that’s what it is, the tree should put out a new crop of leaves in (or grow new shoots around) the bare patches during the summer.

[Kayla]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

What is interesting is that side that faces the sun is more full (opposite side of pic)... so maybe its just really slow this year.

I'd guess it's just slow this year. If it's still like that by July then I'd start to worry. Half of our deciduous trees/bushes are still completely bare here with the other half just beginning the leaf out process. Lack of sunlight is moving things along at a snails pace this year.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

I'd guess it's just slow this year. If it's still like that by July then I'd start to worry. Half of our deciduous trees/bushes are still completely bare here with the other half just beginning the leaf out process. Lack of sunlight is moving things along at a snails pace this year.

Yeah... seems like a lack of sun issue.  

[TT-SEA]

I hadn't walked around it... but here is the same tree from the other side that faces the sun.   Actually looks normal.    Definitely a lack of sun issue and it will get there eventually. 

[TT-SEA]

17 minutes ago, Kayla said:

12z Euro is....not very Tim friendly.

 

Definitely not.    Pretty crazy to have 10 more straight days with rain at this point.   I am going to have to pull the data... but I assume this going to end up being the wettest April-June period ever at the Cedar Lake station... at least terms of persistent rain.   Even the years with rain almost all of April and May broke out of the pattern by mid June.   

[Phishy Wx]

4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

43 here this morning. Severe clear conditions. I have never seen the vegetation explode with growth the way it has over the past week. Still several weeks later than the past few years, but absolutely beautiful. Yesterday evening was gorgeous too as skies cleared after the heavy morning rain. 

I have some sort of ornamental dwarf spruce tree in my front yard.  I swear I can literally see it growing if I stare long enough

[TT-SEA]

Maybe a pattern like the control run is showing in 10 or 11 days with the jet stream quieting down would be the best hope going forward.   And that would be just after the middle of the month so it would be line in terms of timing with other crazy wet springs.    Who knows.   I have been inside for about 10 minutes today and only to get food.   

[Kayla]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Definitely not.    Pretty crazy to have 10 more straight days with rain at this point.   I am going to have to pull the data... but I assume this going to end up being the wettest April-June period ever at the Cedar Lake station... at least terms of persistent rain.   Even the years with rain almost all of April and May broke out of the pattern by mid June.   

12z EPS supports it as well. The persistence is pretty insane. Enjoy that sunshine today!

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Kayla said:

12z EPS supports it as well. The persistence is pretty insane. Enjoy that sunshine today!

Thanks!    Wind picked up here and temp is up to 79 in North Bend.   Did not expect that.   Might be the first 80 of the year.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe a pattern like the control run is showing in 10 or 11 days with the jet stream quieting down would be the best hope going forward.   And that would be just after the middle of the month so it would be line in terms of timing with other crazy wet springs.    Who knows.   I have been inside for about 10 minutes today and only to get food.   

The shift to drier likely comes when a ridge builds offshore, not a wandering ULL. In that regard, the control run looks like an outlier from the ensemble mean.

[TT-SEA]

Correction... back down to 78.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Control run looks like an outlier from the ensemble mean, though.

The shift to drier likely comes when a ridge builds offshore, not a wandering ULL.

Probably a combination of both.   That is usually how it works.

[Deweydog]

Our maples look absolutely amazing this year.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Not shocking.  Summers with anomalous troughing in the NW are normally horrible for much of the country.

Not necessarily. 2000 and 2001 were troughy in the PNW and were some of our coolest summers ever, with lots of NW flow. Years like 1964 and 1984 were also cool/troughy in the PNW and here as well.

Sometimes the death ridge can be confined to the Plains. Though obviously it’s more difficult to do nowadays, given the z-cell changes since then. In all likelihood we will torch, but there’s a chance it stays in the Plains/Midwest.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Our maples look absolutely amazing this year.

Good to hear... its just timing here.   Our tree is just craving more sun like me.  

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Probably a combination of both.   That is usually how it works.

I doubt there’ll be a ULL sitting offshore for any significant stretch of time. Not a favored outcome in this background state.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Good to hear... its just timing here.   Our tree is just craving more sun just like me.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cloudy and 66 here. 

[TT-SEA]

D**n government trying to control the weather and create clouds...

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

D**n government trying to control the weather and create clouds...

It’s drizzling here and sunny in North Bend? 

[TT-SEA]

First 80 in North Bend.   And it feels like it with a surprisingly decent east wind blowing out here.  

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

First 80 in North Bend.   And it feels like it with a surprisingly decent east wind blowing out here.  

72 at PDX right now.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

First 80 in North Bend.   And it feels like it with a surprisingly decent east wind blowing out here.  

You really seem to be benefiting from downsloping this afternoon.

Nowhere near that mark up this way, though it is still a dry, sunny, and pleasant afternoon.

[Anti Marine Layer]

16 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s drizzling here and sunny in North Bend? 

But it's 75 there. When it is drizzly in the PNW it's usually around 60.

[RentonHill]

Temps pretty consistent around the entire state. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Temps pretty consistent around the entire state. 

I see a 75 in the Fraser River outflow area north of the border and 81 on the west side of the North Cascades.    Very temporary warm spike.   Clouds increasing already... just had favorable timing during the middle of the day.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Our maples look absolutely amazing this year.

ours look like Maples