June 2022 - Summer Begins

[Meatyorologist]

nam what the hell

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like our high is going to end up being 68, back down to 65 now. Thiccc overcast now. 

[Meatyorologist]

nam advects a shallow eml from…???????….around 7pm. moist midlevel layer then becomes bouyant with lapse rates around -8°C???!!! dude i am so lost, either this model is cracked out of its mind or seattle is about to get a nasty band of shallow convection within 8 hours, no warning or mention

[NWbyNW]

Beautiful day around the region today.  For me locally it started as pure blue sky, but is now mostly all overcast.  The forecast was saying it would reach 71F today, but so far the highest we've reached is 63F.  I doubt we will get even close to that since the clouds are moving in now.  

Here have a picture of the clouds moving in and a bunny visitor who was not threatened by my presence in the slightest. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like its about to rain. 

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Beautiful day around the region today.  For me locally it started as pure blue sky, but is now mostly all overcast.  The forecast was saying it would reach 71F today, but so far the highest we've reached is 63F.  I doubt we will get even close to that since the clouds are moving in now.  

Here have a picture of the clouds moving in and a bunny visitor who was not threatened by my presence in the slightest. 

I am pretty sure your very close proximity to the water will render forecasts meaningless most of the time and it will always be colder in the warm season and probably the opposite in the winter.   There is no way they can predict down to that micro level.    It's safe to say it's almost always within the same range around the water temp of the Sound. It could be 90 across the entire area and still 65 there.  

[TT-SEA]

Just amazing how fast clouds come in this year... jet is on steriods and there is no buckling.     It's unbelievable how hard it has been to a have just one fully sunny day.   Not normal.  

[Doinko]

I don't think PDX will hit 80 today, the clouds have already come in and it's 75.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

52 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am pretty sure your very close proximity to the water will render forecasts meaningless most of the time and it will always be colder in the warm season and probably the opposite in the winter.   There is no way they can predict down to that micro level.    It's safe to say it's almost always within the same range around the water temp of the Sound. It could be 90 across the entire area and still 65 there.  

Coastal areas are affected less by variations of all sorts, but don’t go overboard and exaggerate it. Sunny warm days are still typically warmer than cool cloudy ones. And wind direction is very important: if local winds are coming from land, it can get plenty toasty.

On Bainbridge Island, downslope flow off the Olympics was the way to get a baking-hot afternoon. Downslope flow off the Cascades could make for quite a warm afternoon during a heat wave, but still significantly cooler than Seattle thanks to that wind having to pass over the sea and get cooled by it. (Yes, the flow the other way has to cross salt water, too, but not nearly so much of it as flow from the east.)

[Phil]

GFS still looks nothing like other guidance over NE-Canada and Alaska. #NotNormal

[Jbolin]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

nam advects a shallow eml from…???????….around 7pm. moist midlevel layer then becomes bouyant with lapse rates around -8°C???!!! dude i am so lost, either this model is cracked out of its mind or seattle is about to get a nasty band of shallow convection within 8 hours, no warning or mention

Wouldn't be the first time but I'm gonna bet my life AGAINST it.

[Phil]

And here comes the spurious cutoff again.

I hate this model with a passion. A useless embarrassment.

[MossMan]

Amazing morning. View from our neighbors place looking west around 8:30am. Now it’s cloudy and humid. 

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Coastal areas are affected less by variations of all sorts, but don’t go overboard and exaggerate it. Sunny warm days are still typically warmer than cool cloudy ones. And wind direction is very important: if local winds are coming from land, it can get plenty toasty.

On Bainbridge Island, downslope flow off the Olympics was the way to get a baking-hot afternoon. Downslope flow off the Cascades could make for quite a warm afternoon during a heat wave, but still significantly cooler than Seattle thanks to that wind having to pass over the sea and get cooled by it. (Yes, the flow the other way has to cross salt water, too, but not nearly so much of it as flow from the east.)

Wind direction is obviously huge.   I could see that with Bainbridge since there is very little water between there and the Olympics... just a sliver really.     But on most days in the warm season there is no way a forecast can pinpoint to that level of detail.    And I believe his specific forecast will bust cold way more often than almost anywhere else because the forecast is for the broader area.

[Phil]

34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just amazing how fast clouds come in this year... jet is on steriods and there is no buckling.     It's unbelievable how hard it has been to a have just one fully sunny day.   Not normal.  

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

Maybe so.   But has to slow down eventually.   

[Rubus Leucodermis]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wind direction is obviously huge.   I could see that with Bainbridge since there is very little water between there and the Olympics... just a sliver really.     But on most days in the warm season there is no way a forecast can pinpoint to that level of detail.    And I believe his specific forecast will bust cold way more often than almost anywhere else because the forecast is for the broader area.

During the warm season, maxima were normally about 7 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than KSEA at my place on Bainbridge, but this difference could vary between 0 and about 12 °F. West of Highway 305 was significantly more affected by marine influences and was cooler yet on warm afternoons.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe so.   But has to slow down eventually.   

The persistence has been impressive. Much more-so than I had ever anticipated.

[NWbyNW]

36 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Amazing morning. View from our neighbors place looking west around 8:30am. Now it’s cloudy and humid. 

Is that looking towards Oak Harbor?  Awesome view. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This GFS run dumps about 4" here. 

[TT-SEA]

18 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Today was more of an artifact of transient westerly flow associated with an exiting trough.

Wednesday's marine layer will be advected inland solely via thermal pressure gradients. More of a typical midsummer marine layer setup. But yes, today did have one.

I was thinking about this as the clouds rolled in... definitely a trough and not a typical mid-summer marine layer set up. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Phil]

Could be mistaken, but my recollection is there was more variability in the pattern in 2011. Definitely a firm La Niña background state, but IIRC there were coherent intraseasonal cycles as well.

This year there are aspects to the pattern that haven’t changed at all. The La Niña standing wave has its nails dug deep into the middle latitude wavetrain, and is very resistant to change.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wonder if we will see our first 80 of the year this month? lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Could be mistaken, but my recollection is there was more variability in the pattern in 2011. Definitely a firm La Niña background state, but IIRC there were coherent intraseasonal cycles as well.

This year there are aspects to the pattern that haven’t changed at all. The La Niña standing wave has its nails dug deep into the middle latitude wavetrain, and is very resistant to change.

I'm curious to see if ENSO wanes like the CFS shows or if the Nina stays moderate to strong. I think it has serious implications for whether our winter is front loaded, or we have a good shot at a truly serious throwback winter. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Could be mistaken, but my recollection is there was more variability in the pattern in 2011. Definitely a firm La Niña background state, but IIRC there were coherent intraseasonal cycles as well.

This year there are aspects to the pattern that haven’t changed at all. The La Niña standing wave has its nails dug deep into the middle latitude wavetrain, and is very resistant to change.

Way more variability locally in 2011.     It's was chilly but much less persistent in terms of rain.

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was thinking about this as the clouds rolled in... definitely a trough and not a typical mid-summer marine layer set up. 

 

I was referring to tomorrow, not today.

[Meatyorologist]

Yikes!

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Could be mistaken, but my recollection is there was more variability in the pattern in 2011. Definitely a firm La Niña background state, but IIRC there were coherent intraseasonal cycles as well.

This year there are aspects to the pattern that haven’t changed at all. The La Niña standing wave has its nails dug deep into the middle latitude wavetrain, and is very resistant to change.

 

[MossMan]

16 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Is that looking towards Oak Harbor?  Awesome view. 

Close, Camano Island! If I would have taken a pic from a more northwesterly angle you would be able to see Whidby Island. They have an amazing view! 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I was referring to tomorrow, not today.

Well there is a trough and rain moving in now... so any marine layer tomorrow morning is the result of that.   

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm curious to see if ENSO wanes like the CFS shows or if the Nina stays moderate to strong. I think it has serious implications for whether our winter is front loaded, or we have a good shot at a truly serious throwback winter. 

We just finished a multi-week cycle of weak trades associated with the MJO, which resulted in some SST warming.

Now we have several weeks of enhanced trades/large scale Pacific subsidence (along with the inception of the ISM) to get through.

IMO, given the lack of westerly currents, it’s a safe bet that ENSO will be cooler in late June/early July than it is now. 

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well there is a trough and rain moving in now... so any marine layer tomorrow morning is the result of that.   

That, plus the sustained -2mb or lower AST-SEA pressure gradient maintained all day through 1pm. Marine air, or any air for that matter doesn't move on its own.

[Doinko]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm curious to see if ENSO wanes like the CFS shows or if the Nina stays moderate to strong. I think it has serious implications for whether our winter is front loaded, or we have a good shot at a truly serious throwback winter. 

Next winter I hope Salem gets a good snowstorm, when was the last time they had an 8+ inch one? And some arctic air for the south valley.

[TacomaWaWx]

72/48 today…71 now and cloudy. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That, plus the sustained -2mb or lower AST-SEA pressure gradient maintained all day through 1pm. Marine air, or any air for that matter doesn't move on its own.

I am just saying that there is nothing remotely close to a typical mid-summer set up right now.  

[T-Town]

3 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Our maples look absolutely amazing this year.

Perhaps if the trees were all kept equal…

[TacomaWaWx]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Way more variability locally in 2011.     It's was chilly but much less persistent in terms of rain.

I’m pretty sure 2011 didn’t feature this type of June weather either. It’s pretty crazy it’s staying this wet…it quite literally is like that year from the 1860s Jim brought up with crazy rainfall totals in June and July. 

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I am just saying that there is nothing remotely close to a typical mid-summer set up right now.  

Troughs come through during the summer, too. They enhance marine pushes.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I’m pretty sure 2011 didn’t feature this type of June weather either. It’s pretty crazy it’s staying this wet…it quite literally is like that year from the 1860s Jim brought up with crazy rainfall totals in June and July. 

A strong to extreme atmospheric river in June is really crazy. Looks like it might stay to the north of us in Oregon though.