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June 2022 - Summer Begins


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  • Longtimer

Looks like we are pretty much done with the rain until this evening. Should be heavy overnight and taper off around daybreak tomorrow. So daylight hours today and tomorrow should be mostly dry. Sunday might be a different story. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like we are pretty much done with the rain until this evening. Should be heavy overnight and taper off around daybreak tomorrow. So daylight hours today and tomorrow should be mostly dry. Sunday might be a different story. 

ECMWF shows another wave moving through western OR and WA this afternoon.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
Just now, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF shows another wave moving through western OR and WA this afternoon.

Mesoscale models show that being north of us. May not start raining again down here until 8-10pm. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Some water year to date departures... just crazy wet.

SEA  +9.25

OLM  +11.20

BLI  +7.12

HQM  +13.23

UIL  +26.44

And that is despite the massive dry stretch from mid Jan to late Feb. A very streaky water year... Might gun for one of the wettest years on record at this rate. Hold on I can actually check that on xmACIS2...

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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  • Longtimer

If you are north of Chehalis you have already seen the bulk of the rain you will see over the weekend. South of there, you have weathered round 1, there is another round coming tonight and then on Sunday morning, each one focused a bit further south. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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image.png

@TT-SEA 8th wettest start of all time at KSEA!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

And that is despite the massive dry stretch from mid Jan to late Feb. A very streaky water year... Might gun for one of the wettest years on record at this rate. Hold on I can actually check that on xmACIS2...

I think 2016-17 is probably out of reach, but we could potentially pas 2011-12 if we have a damp September. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

And that is despite the massive dry stretch from mid Jan to late Feb. A very streaky water year... Might gun for one of the wettest years on record at this rate. Hold on I can actually check that on xmACIS2...

Massive dry stretch?     Its been unusually wet for the last 8.5 months except for that 5-6 week stretch.    I would say the massive wet stretches have significantly outweighed that "massive dry stretch".    It can't always be very wet.  

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  • Longtimer

3.39” for the month. I sure hope that Andrew is correct when staying the rainfall is mostly done up north! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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There is no data for June yet... but through the end of May the Cedar Lake station was +25.86 for the water year.   Juuuust a bit wetter than normal out here as well.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Massive dry stretch?     Its been unusually wet for the last 8.5 months except for that 5-6 week stretch.    I would say the massive wet stretches have significantly outweighed that "massive dry stretch".    It can't always be very wet.  

image.png

5 weeks of summer like dryness in the middle of the wet season is incredibly dry. Literally the driest such stretch ever recorded. Don't know what else to say.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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  • Longtimer

We are now over 25" since April 1. +13.55 on the water year, that despite running a -8" departure January-March. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

image.png

5 weeks of summer like dryness in the middle of the wet season is incredibly dry. Literally the driest such stretch ever recorded. Don't know what else to say.

But it was surrounded by extremely wet periods.   And January and February actually ended up wetter than normal at SEA.    It would be almost impossible not to have some kind of dry spell to offset all the wet periods.   Not sure what else to say.   That short period does not even show up when looking at the monthly data for this water year.  

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16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Mesoscale models show that being north of us. May not start raining again down here until 8-10pm. 

ECMWF shows it will be raining even down there by 2 or 3 p.m.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

But it was surrounded by extremely wet periods.   And January and February ended up wetter than normal at SEA.    It would be almost impossible not to have some kind of dry spell to offset all the wet periods.   Not sure what else to say.   That short period does not even show up when looking at the monthly data for this water year.  

That was my entire point, that the incredibly wet ytd numbers are especially impressive given that *record breaking* month long dry streak. Most other wet years were not given that kind of luxury. It gives special cadence to the incredible, persistent wetness of this Spring and now early Summer.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That was my entire point, that the incredibly wet ytd numbers are especially impressive given that *record breaking* month long dry streak. Most other wet years were not given that kind of luxury. It gives special cadence to the incredible, persistent wetness of this Spring and now early Summer.

I don't know... it seems like every wet year has a least a month off from the rain.     And it was not totally dry.   SEA had rain on 15 days in January and 11 days in February... and both months ended up significantly wetter than normal.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF shows it will be raining even down there by 2 or 3 p.m.

That would certainly be a blessing, but we shall see. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

12z 3K NAM showing about 3" here through 5pm Sunday. You can see once you get north of about Kelso/Longview precip really tapers off. 

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

I don't know... it seems like every wet year has a least a month off from the rain.     And it was not totally dry.   SEA had rain on 15 days in January and 11 days in February... and both months ended up significantly wetter than normal.   

You keep telling me this like I don't know it already... I'm the one who's been skimming through rainfall stats all year! :lol:

Look at that graph again, 2022 is #1 for the driest such stretch on record. You can say it's cherrypicked. Sure, of course it is, that is the whole point. But that is a 43 day stretch. That's not an insignificant amount of time. That is nearly a one and a half month stretch that verified as the driest such period on record.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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  • Longtimer

5pm the rain is still well north of my location. 

ref1km_ptype.us_nw.png

By 8pm light rain develops. 

ref1km_ptype.us_nw.pngBy 11pm things are picking up. 

ref1km_ptype.us_nw.png

2am we are getting HAMMERED. 

ref1km_ptype.us_nw.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

5pm the rain is still well north of my location. 

ref1km_ptype.us_nw.png

By 8pm light rain develops. 

ref1km_ptype.us_nw.pngBy 11pm things are picking up. 

ref1km_ptype.us_nw.png

2am we are getting HAMMERED. 

ref1km_ptype.us_nw.png

We got absolutely nailed yesterday so no complaints on overall missing out the rest of the weekend…although it won’t be entirely dry up here. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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32 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

image.png

@TT-SEA 8th wettest start of all time at KSEA!

And for the water year it's 5th wettest start of all time (at KSEA). Which to be honest is less than I was thinking based on all the hype. Yes, this level of wetness is unusual, but not super unprecedented (although June could end up unprecedented if it keeps raining). The precip could very well shut off any day now and the water year wouldn't end up particularly remarkable even if we picked up average rainfall for July-Sept.

1747269064_ScreenShot2022-06-10at7_54_41AM.png.285a03de0f983faf5c2202d11af99541.png

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 21.75" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1", 2/2: Tr, 2/21: 1.5", 2/22: 0.75", 2/23: 1.5", 2/24: 1")

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  • Longtimer
2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

We got absolutely nailed yesterday so no complaints on overall missing out the rest of the weekend…although it won’t be entirely dry up here. 

Bet by this time tomorrow morning I'll have already had a lot more rain than Tim with the event with another round coming on Sunday. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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June is 18th wettest on record with 21 days to go lmao

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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10 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

And for the water year it's 5th wettest start of all time (at KSEA). Which to be honest is less than I was thinking based on all the moaning. Yes, this level of wetness is unusual, but not super unprecedented (although June could end up unprecedented if it keeps raining). The precip could very well shut off any day now and the water year wouldn't end up particularly remarkable even if we picked up average rainfall for July-Sept.

1747269064_ScreenShot2022-06-10at7_54_41AM.png.285a03de0f983faf5c2202d11af99541.png

If the rain stopped today... most places would still end up significantly wetter than normal for the water year.

And obviously its also about the persistence of the pattern since late March which has been very remarkable.   2016-17 and 2015-16 did not drag out through June... which makes a big difference.     When you have rain almost every day for 3 months starting in April when its supposed to go in other direction then it becomes very noticeable to most people.    No idea why this is hard to understand.    

Interesting that 3 of the top 5 are within the last 6 years.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If the rain stopped today... most places would still end up significantly wetter than normal for the water year.

And obviously its also about the persistence of the pattern since late March which has been very remarkable.   2016-17 and 2015-16 did not drag out through June... which makes a big difference.     When you have rain almost every day for 3 months starting in April when its supposed to go in other direction then it becomes very noticeable to most people.    No idea why this is hard to understand.    

Interesting that 3 of the top 5 are within the last 6 years.

image.gif.c6aa5f7d0a9f03f40b0c96840bc85802.gif

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If the rain stopped today... most places would still end up significantly wetter than normal for the water year.

And obviously its also about the persistence of the pattern since late March which has been very remarkable.   2016-17 and 2015-16 did not drag out through June... which makes a big difference.     When you have rain almost every day for 3 months starting in April when its supposed to go in other direction then it becomes very noticeable to most people.    No idea why this is hard to understand.    

Interesting that 3 of the top 5 are within the last 6 years.

You are coming across as very combative towards what is a very objective and innocent post from meaty. Just FYI. He made an interesting point. You seem to be fighting it very hard with a related, but different point that nobody is arguing with you about. Just my 2c here. 

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23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If the rain stopped today... most places would still end up significantly wetter than normal for the water year.

And obviously its also about the persistence of the pattern since late March which has been very remarkable.   2016-17 and 2015-16 did not drag out through June... which makes a big difference.     When you have rain almost every day for 3 months starting in April when its supposed to go in other direction then it becomes very noticeable to most people.    No idea why this is hard to understand.    

Interesting that 3 of the top 5 are within the last 6 years.

image.png.53f58997012c82e4a8f7582c51f3e201.png

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2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

You are coming across as very combative towards what is a very objective and innocent post from meaty. Just FYI. He made an interesting point. You seem to be fighting it very hard with a related, but different point that nobody is arguing with you about. Just my 2c here. 

That was a response to Skagit.   😀

 

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1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

You are coming across as very combative towards what is a very objective and innocent post from meaty. Just FYI. He made an interesting point. You seem to be fighting it very hard with a related, but different point that nobody is arguing with you about. Just my 2c here. 

It's not just that I was making my own interesting point. It's that my point literally reinforced Tim's comments on how wet it's been recently.

My point was that this Spring and early summer have been so wet that they've overpowered a month and a half long record dry streak during the heart of the wet season... That it's rained a lot, and on a lot of days. Just as he's been saying.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Welp bois, today is my graduation day for my masters program (I still have one quarter left doe). Can’t wait to be done🎓

 

Happy Dance GIF by FIU

Hell yeah!!!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Welp bois, today is my graduation day for my masters program (I still have one quarter left doe). Can’t wait to be done🎓

 

Happy Dance GIF by FIU

Looks sunny and warm, I want to go there. 
Oh and Congrats!! 

Edited by MossMan
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Welp bois, today is my graduation day for my masters program (I still have one quarter left doe). Can’t wait to be done🎓

 

Happy Dance GIF by FIU

Congrats man!    I mentioned before that I use you as a role model for my sons.     Buying a house and getting your masters simultaneously at such a young age is very impressive! 

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4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's not just that I was making my own interesting point. It's that my point literally reinforced Tim's comments on how wet it's been recently.

My point was that this Spring and early summer have been so wet that they've overpowered a month and a half long record dry streak during the heart of the wet season... That it's rained a lot, and on a lot of days. Just as he's been saying.

I know.   I just don't think that "massive dry stretch" would stand out to anyone during two months with measurable rain on half the days and both months ended up significantly wetter than normal.     But stats are stats.   👍

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15 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't think he lives in Spokane. 

I'm in the foothills near Lewiston, but in WA. But same general summer as Spokane, maybe a bit warmer. 

0.24 inches of rain when we woke up. 

Last day of school here. I always think it odd when the school starts at 8am and ends at 10am on the last day. Stanwood SD on the west side, where Randy is does the same thing. Is that to give kids one last breakfast?

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1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said:

I'm in the foothills near Lewiston, but in WA. But same general summer as Spokane, maybe a bit warmer. 

0.24 inches of rain when we woke up. 

Last day of school here. I always think it odd when the school starts at 8am and ends at 10am on the last day. Stanwood SD on the west side, where Randy is does the same thing. Is that to give kids one last breakfast?

Just time enough to pack up and say goodbyes.  

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18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Congrats man!    I mentioned before that I use you as a role model for my sons.     Buying a house and getting your masters simultaneously at such a young age is very impressive! 

I appreciate it🙏🙏💯

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I know.   I just don't think that "massive dry stretch" would stand out to anyone during two months with measurable rain on half the days and both months ended up significantly wetter than normal.     But stats are stats.   👍

You're looking at this from the perspective of monthly totals. I'm looking at this from the perspective of, you know, an extended stretch of weather which happened to be very, very dry. Which most of us seem to remember quite well.

Stats are stats, sure. But certain stats have different weaknesses, and this case profoundly shows how cumulative monthly precipitation can be misleading. A small number of wet days in this instance boosted both January's and February's monthly totals to well above normal, despite the majority of that two month period being spent under a very dry, very ridgy regime. I'm not trying to sound condescending, and I'm not trying to spin a narrative, this time. But I just don't know how I could possibly make my point any clearer.

80% of February's rainfall came in two days, at the very end of the month. Do you think it's fair to call February wet? I think not. February had 18 days without any measurable precipitation; I know you love that stat! That isn't a record but it was a majority of the month and far above normal (around 11.) More than half of February was completely dry, barring a few immeasurable traces here and there... stuff that evaporates easily under the increasingly powerful late winter sun. From the perspective of someone living through that month (all of us, hopefully), dryness defined February, not that one massive honkin' AR which doused the region for a grand total of two days.

January is admittedly less extreme of a case, since the whole first half of the month was very rainy, not just a select few days. But the rest of the month set the tone for the vast majority of the February to come.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

You're looking at this from the perspective of monthly totals. I'm looking at this from the perspective of, you know, an extended stretch of weather which happened to be very, very dry. Which most of us seem to remember quite well.

Stats are stats, sure. But certain stats have different weaknesses, and this case profoundly shows how cumulative monthly precipitation can be misleading. A small number of wet days in this instance boosted both January's and February's monthly totals to well above normal, despite the majority of that two month period being spent under a very dry, very ridgy regime. I'm not trying to sound condescending, and I'm not trying to spin a narrative, this time. But I just don't know how I could possibly make my point any clearer.

80% of February's rainfall came in two days, at the very end of the month. Do you think it's fair to call February wet? I think not. February had 18 days without any measurable precipitation; I know you love that stat! That isn't a record but it was a majority of the month and far above normal (around 11.) More than half of February was completely dry, barring a few immeasurable traces here and there... stuff that evaporates easily under the increasingly powerful late winter sun. From the perspective of someone living through that month (all of us, hopefully), dryness defined February, not that one massive honkin' AR which doused the region for a grand total of two days.

January is admittedly less extreme of a case, since the whole first half of the month was very rainy, not just a select few days. But the rest of the month set the tone for the vast majority of the February to come.

Our longest dry stretch of the year was from Jan 21st to 29th, and it's June right now! Pretty interesting.

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

You're looking at this from the perspective of monthly totals. I'm looking at this from the perspective of, you know, an extended stretch of weather which happened to be very, very dry. Which most of us seem to remember quite well.

Stats are stats, sure. But certain stats have different weaknesses, and this case profoundly shows how cumulative monthly precipitation can be misleading. A small number of wet days in this instance boosted both January's and February's monthly totals to well above normal, despite the majority of that two month period being spent under a very dry, very ridgy regime. I'm not trying to sound condescending, and I'm not trying to spin a narrative, this time. But I just don't know how I could possibly make my point any clearer.

80% of February's rainfall came in two days, at the very end of the month. Do you think it's fair to call February wet? I think not. February had 18 days without any measurable precipitation; I know you love that stat! That isn't a record but it was a majority of the month and far above normal (around 11.) More than half of February was completely dry, barring a few immeasurable traces here and there... stuff that evaporates easily under the increasingly powerful late winter sun. From the perspective of someone living through that month (all of us, hopefully), dryness defined February, not that one massive honkin' AR which doused the region for a grand total of two days.

January is admittedly less extreme of a case, since the whole first half of the month was very rainy, not just a select few days. But the rest of the month set the tone for the vast majority of the February to come.

I just think that period is a drier than normal blip in what has been a very period overall since last September.   Its just semantics.     Ask around if anyone else remembers how dry it was in the middle of winter... outside of this forum.    Rain on 10 days in February compared to a normal of 15 days is not exactly memorable.    Although I do agree... February was a pretty nice month and most of the rain came on a couple days which I enjoy.  

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GFS does not show much rain up here tomorrow or Sunday... but Sunday will be much cooler with the trough moving inland.  

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4 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Our longest dry stretch of the year was from Jan 21st to 29th, and it's June right now! Pretty interesting.

Longest dry stretch here was February 8-13.    Pretty crazy.   

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I just think that period is a drier than normal blip in what has been a very period overall since last September.   Its just semantics.     Ask around if anyone else remembers how dry it was in the middle of winter... outside of this forum.    Rain on 10 days in February compared to a normal of 15 days is not exactly memorable.    Although I do agree... February was a pretty nice month and most of the rain came on a couple days which I enjoy.  

Ah yes, the typical forty three day blip.

But you're probably right in that only weenies like us remember that dry stretch. And it's surrounded by incredibly wet weather, dating back to September in WA. December technically came in as drier than normal at KSEA, but it's actually a comically opposite example of February. What 'little wealth' that month had was spread across many days in the form of very light rain and drizzle, then snowfall. And the colder, cloudier weather prevented much of it from evaporating, so the soil moisture deficit was negligible if not zero.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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