June 2022 - Summer Begins

[BLI snowman]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

58 degrees this morning in North Bend... feels warm and muggy.    And even with the rain starting tomorrow... it should stay warm and humid until maybe Sunday.    I do find this preferable to cold and drizzly.  And it's Justin's favorite summer weather.  

 

My ideal summer weather is probably highs 72-77 with lows 55-60. Reasonably sticky with fairly frequent rain/thunderstorm chances, but also with sunny breaks in between and very moderate afternoons. Ideally it would stay green all summer and frequent rain is the best way to ensure that.

I do like having a persistent balminess to summer throughout the evening and not having to worry about ever bundling up for a couple months, but at this point I would also 1000% rather deal with anomalously cool summer weather here than anomalously hot. And if forced to pick between one extreme climate or the other (Yuma vs. Sitka) I would side with the cool every time.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

65F and partly cloudy. Nice morning!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

On the river in Salem its in the low 60s with broken overcast and a few sunbreaks. Solid overcast from about our place to about 5 miles east of Salem where the layer starts to break up a bit. Should be a beautiful afternoon with highs in the 70s. 

[RentonHill]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

On the river in Salem its in the low 60s with broken overcast and a few sunbreaks. Solid overcast from about our place to about 5 miles east of Salem where the layer starts to break up a bit. Should be a beautiful afternoon with highs in the 70s. 

ya. really nice typical marine layer day. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS gives us 2.51" throughout the run. EURO provided 3.79" through day 10. Either way we are in good shape heading into summer. 

[TT-SEA]

Up to 64 now in North Bend... partly sunny here with some mid-level clouds passing by at times.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Up to 64 now in North Bend... partly sunny here with some mid-level clouds passing by at times.

Up to 65 at my place. Quite cloudy.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Up to 65 at my place. Quite cloudy.

ECMWF shows the mid level clouds are focused down in Oregon this afternoon so it should be more sunny later.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS gives us 2.51" throughout the run. EURO provided 3.79" through day 10. Either way we are in good shape heading into summer. 

Here’s hoping it doesn’t torch mightily and erase all of that in short order (models thankfully don’t look like it will). I’d REALLY like to miss out on smoke season this year.

[Kayla]

15 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Just went out to the garden and took some pics for you...

 

Your soil looks way drier than ours. Almost looks like it could use some watering there!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

Your soil looks way drier than ours. Almost looks like it could use some watering there!

It's really strange... we got vegetable garden soil delivered but it seems to dry out on top and become hard almost immediately after it stops raining.    We got the same soil last year and it did not do that.    Everything seems to be growing well so I guess it's not a big deal.   Certainly don't need to water.   

[RentonHill]

Now the GFS is significantly wetter than Euro in WA

[RentonHill]

Euro still has a good swatch of precip for mid Oregon

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Euro still has a good swatch of precip for mid Oregon

EURO is still much wetter than the GFS down here. 

[RentonHill]

Alberta gets nuked

[RentonHill]

Welp

[Anti Marine Layer]

21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

EURO is still much wetter than the GFS down here. 

It won't be worth it unless the June rainfall records are broken. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Gonna be wet either way. Seems like we’re very likely to have the wettest June I’ve recorded here. Need 0.85” to get there and the euro shows 1.6” in the next 72 hours with more in the long range. 

[TT-SEA]

The roaring and consolidated jet stream will finally weaken and start buckling over the next week... more normal for summer.     Obviously this does not mean totally dry, but it should mean significant improvement overall.    Eric Snodgrass has been talking about this starting to happen in his last couple videos and will likely result in a massive high over the middle of the country as well.  

Here is the 12Z EPS through the middle of next week...

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The roaring and consolidated jet stream will finally weaken and start buckling over the next week... more normal for summer.     Obviously does not mean totally dry, but it should mean significant improvement overall.    Eric Snodgrass has been talking about this starting to happen in his last couple videos and will like result in a massive high over the middle of the country as well.  

Here is the 12Z EPS through the middle of next week...

Was it caused by the SSW?

[Kayla]

21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The roaring and consolidated jet stream will finally weaken and start buckling over the next week... more normal for summer.     Obviously this does not mean totally dry, but it should mean significant improvement overall.    Eric Snodgrass has been talking about this starting to happen in his last couple videos and will likely result in a massive high over the middle of the country as well.  

Here is the 12Z EPS through the middle of next week...

This is just going to cause the same general pattern that we’ve been seeing. More SW flow aloft. If you’re looking for dry weather it’s not going to come from a ridge in the Midwest. Would need the ridge to retrograde but I don’t see that happening anytime soon.

[RentonHill]

[TT-SEA]

25 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Was it caused by the SSW?

Don't think so.... but the jet stream has been unusually strong since early April and the pattern has very progressive.   A weakening jet stream is common at this time of year... but this year I have too see it to believe it.   

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Kayla said:

This is just going to cause the same general pattern that we’ve been seeing. More SW flow aloft. If you’re looking for dry weather it’s not going to come from a ridge in the Midwest. Would need the ridge to retrograde but I don’t see that happening anytime soon.

Maybe... but the pattern should be much less intense with weak troughs and ULLs instead of a massive parent low covering all of the GOA.   We don't need ridging over the PNW to be fairly dry in the summer.... and I don't expect any heat waves.  But this is probably how we get to a more reasonably dry and seasonable pattern finally.     

[TT-SEA]

Referring this pattern...  more like November than June.

[Kayla]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe... but the pattern should be much less intense with weak troughs and ULLs instead of a massive parent low covering all of the GOA.   We don't need ridging over the PNW to be fairly dry in the summer.... and I don't expect any heat waves.  But this is probably how we get to a more reasonably dry and seasonable pattern finally.     

Alaska has been torching lately. Lots of high latitude blocking is another issue that would need resolving. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Referring this pattern...  more like November than June.

I thought that disgusting red and orange stuff was supposed to be heading into Oregon?

[TT-SEA]

Up to 70 in North Bend now.

[Omegaraptor]

Euro shows rain basically as persistent as it gets this time of year. Showing a pretty deep trough next weekend which might actually result in drier weather, ironically. Might be a good opportunity to head to the eastside. But we will see how that turns out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Quite the north south heat gradient today. 72 at PDX, 67 at EUG.

 

Seriously though. Thought his afternoon would feature more sun, but it has clouded up nicely. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

The roaring and consolidated jet stream will finally weaken and start buckling over the next week... more normal for summer.     Obviously this does not mean totally dry, but it should mean significant improvement overall.    Eric Snodgrass has been talking about this starting to happen in his last couple videos and will likely result in a massive high over the middle of the country as well.  

Here is the 12Z EPS through the middle of next week...

This extended jet as done wonders keeping the heat bottled away in the south, reducing cooling demand when energy prices are already sky high.

With the jet retracting, that bottled up heat is going to surge northward. Going to result in higher demand and also drought development over the central CONUS.

I guess the term “improvement” is subjective, in this regard.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

This extended jet as done wonders keeping the heat bottled away in the south, reducing cooling demand when energy prices are already sky high.

With the jet retracting, that bottled up heat is going to surge northward. Going to result in higher demand and also drought development over the central CONUS.

I guess the term “improvement” is subjective, in this regard.

I guess so.

Obviously I am just looking for the almost daily rain pattern to subside like most people in western WA.  

Either way... its something that normally happens at this time of year.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I guess so.

Obviously I am just looking for the almost daily rain pattern to subside like most people in western WA.  

Either way... its something that normally happens at this time of year.  

Imagine if we have a wet rainy season like 1955-56. You are going to be apoplectic. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Imagine if we have a wet rainy season like 1955-56. You are going to be apoplectic. 

That 1955 analog has been surprisingly solid from a large scale standpoint. Of course they can only be used as guides, but the structural homogeneities have been impressive.

First time in years I’ve had a pre-satellite era analog in my top-5.

[TT-SEA]

Not totally cloudy... and not totally sunny.   Extremely pleasant afternoon in the low 70s.  

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Imagine if we have a wet rainy season like 1955-56. You are going to be apoplectic. 

Rainy season?   Don't care.   It's usually raining and days are short.   And we travel all the time.   Don't mess with the warm season though.

[Omegaraptor]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Imagine if we have a wet rainy season like 1955-56. You are going to be apoplectic. 

I don't think Tim cares if it rains in December and January lol. Those months are kind of supposed to be very wet. June is completely different.

And in a dry Dec/Jan most of us are just going to be sitting under inversions 90% of the time anyway. Pretty difficult to get an extended sunny pattern in those months, and even in the occasion that you do the days are 8 hours long anyway.

[BLI snowman]

The funny thing is that the SW flow has really kept temps up recently and it hasn't been notably cool at all. Even Flatiron UHI oasis OLM is running slightly warmer than average month to date so far

[Doinko]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

This extended jet as done wonders keeping the heat bottled away in the south, reducing cooling demand when energy prices are already sky high.

With the jet retracting, that bottled up heat is going to surge northward. Going to result in higher demand and also drought development over the central CONUS.

I guess the term “improvement” is subjective, in this regard.

Yeah it isn't looking that good for the central US in terms of drought. At the same time though, I hope that ridge doesn't retrograde too much and give us too much heat.

[MossMan]

I apologize for all of the uncontrollable puking on everyone today as I have caught some sort of fungal thing from all of the wetness.