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June 2022 - Summer Begins


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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s the point where it goes off the rails over the Pacific.

Maybe... but there will some elements that are correct and other models eventually follow.    Like the trough this week... it does actually get close to cutting off.     The GFS was wrong as usual but it was not totally out in left field.   I use the GFS for trends.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe... but there will some elements that are correct and other models eventually follow.    Like the trough this week... it does actually get close to cutting off.     The GFS was wrong as usual but it was not totally out in left field.   I use the GFS for trends.   

I use ensemble blends for trends.

Blends being the key word since both the GEPS and GEFS tend to be under-dispersed.

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53F and mostly cloudy. Nice out there. Only got up to 64F.

  • Sun 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

00z GFS is a huge outlier from its own ensemble mean.

Shocker. 🙄

I would imagine that after day 7 or 8... most of the ensemble members are normally outliers from the mean.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I would imagine that after day 7 or 8... most of the ensemble members are normally outliers from the mean.  

The divergence is pretty stark given the GEFS is relatively under-dispersed.

312BF859-49AB-4A98-A3C3-06BBD03263A7.gif

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8 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

They could have used some of that from February 12 to 28, 2010

Elkford hosted the Olympics?    Impressive.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I see KGEG had a high of 49 through 5 p.m. but has since jumped up to 51.     

Spokane has also picked up just about the normal rainfall for the entire month of June since the rain started yesterday evening.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Same system might have brought snow to Whistler, which I remember having a deficiency. 

I doubt whistler had a shortage of snow.  The north shore mountains of Vancouver did though.  And they had a lot of the freestyle and snowboard events there. 

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1 minute ago, smerfylicious said:

1.37" of rain today. Blew past 7.5" for the month. I looked around on prism and couldn't find a June in the past 20 years this wet in Gold Bar. I'll have to look all the way back to see if there's ever been a June this wet here. 

We are to 3rd wettest now. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... Aberdeen WA is infamous for oppressive heat.   Charleston SC and Aberdeen WA.   You are getting very lucky this summer.    Every post lately feels like you are being held hostage and reading notes at gunpoint.    You are bad at trolling.   But it is good comedy.   😀

its-fine-im-fine-everything-is-fine (1).jpg

Tangibly, weather wise, it has been a nice spring and early start to summer, sorry that you are suffering and feel like you need project on me for no reason.

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5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Tangibly, weather wise, it has been a nice spring and early start to summer, sorry that you are suffering and feel like you need project on me for no reason.

So you’re not a hostage at gun point reading off weather preferences? 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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  • Longtimer
9 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

One more system like this and I'm knocking on 10" for the month. Here's hoping there's a respite.

Kind of seems like we are done, but who knows. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Kind of seems like we are done, but who knows. 

New euro is wet up here. This would probably put us at #1 at sea tac. 

BA7D573F-2793-435B-9EC5-F7B3C3907ADA.jpeg

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Another trough late in the run on the euro. Gfs does not agree gets pretty toasty late in the run…but I’d bet on the euro. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Final totals on the euro. Pretty chilly for this time of year through and through on this run. Already been a week since we’ve hit 70 and if this verifies we will be waiting awhile longer…also breaking the June rainfall record. Mean temp this month has already came back down from earlier. 

32E91252-5EA7-4D6A-9C4A-25BAF08B70F4.jpeg

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Pretty disappointing to see the weekend looking wetter tonight.  Very short window for good weather this year now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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image.png

Okay...!

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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image.png

Christ almighty 🤮

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

image.png

Christ almighty 🤮

Not going to happen.  The EPS has been insistent on a relatively dry, but decidedly cool pattern for week 2.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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2010 had 2 major heat waves (highs well into the 90s) in July and August, one a piece. But each of those heatwaves were separated by cool, oceanic weather, in addition to being quite brief, making each heatwave feel more 'earned' and less of an assault on the senses. In fact, despite the two major heatwaves and a few other quite warm days, both July and August ended up two or more degrees below their modern averages thanks to the very extended chilly stretches in between.

Then of course five years later we saw one long heatwave called JAS.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not going to happen.  The EPS has been insistent on a relatively dry, but decidedly cool pattern for week 2.

I am aware. Just not very fun to look at!

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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The ECMWF operational shows EPO and PNA both -3 at the end of the run.  That doesn't scream wet, but certainly favors well below normal temps.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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Phil and I talked about this being the year for locking into a major cool regime quite a while ago.  No doubt we are seeing it.  I'm just waiting for the more enjoyable NW flow incarnation to arrive.

Possible the table is being set for a great cold season.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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9 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Looks like some nice summer weather to me. 

It's not just the magnitude, it's the duration. GFS develops this extended heatwave for a week. I wouldn't even be revolted by a day or two in the 90s, but keep it at just that -- a day or two!

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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image.png

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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  • Longtimer

Light rain 44, 0.06" since midnight. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
4 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

House heater just kicked on and woke me up. currently 33F

Has any of our rain been reaching you down there?

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

From what I remember, that’s pretty good for June in California.

Yeah really good. Usually our first heatwave of summer kicks off the dry season till fall. So to have a storm come in 48 hours after a heatwave is very unusual. looks like a repeat this week as well.

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  • Longtimer

Low of 26 at K-Falls this morning. Ties the record from 1907.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

Tangibly, weather wise, it has been a nice spring and early start to summer, sorry that you are suffering and feel like you need project on me for no reason.

Oh Chris.  You really do make me smile and I thank you for that.   You are trying a little too hard to take the opposite position and teach us a lesson.  I have never seen you this excited to go in your backyard in 50-degree weather... and there is no shortage of that most of the year.  Double exclamation point excited apparently.  Aberdeen WA and oppressive heat are synonymous.  You are getting very lucky this year.   But you also love the oppressive heat when it comes.   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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35 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Yeah really good. Usually our first heatwave of summer kicks off the dry season till fall. So to have a storm come in 48 hours after a heatwave is very unusual. looks like a repeat this week as well.

Heat wave and then some rain sounds like a nice balance.    

  • Weenie 3

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Heat wave and then some rain sounds like a nice balance.    

Sounds like you’d enjoy the typical warm season in Santa Fe. Hot June (and often early July), then in July the monsoon kicks in and it gets cooler (by August quite noticeably cooler). Lots of sunshine during the summer but many days feature showers as well so you’d still be able post running days-with-rain counts and grumble about it.

  • lol 1
It's called clown range for a reason.

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