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June 2022 - Summer Begins


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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Yep! GFS loves long range 'canes

Really interesting stuff! I wonder what influences that bias in the models. 972 is a pretty low low. Lord knows Houston doesn’t need another cane!

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  • Longtimer

Yeah, but it wasn't weeks of dry weather like May 2018. That was summer. May 1993 had a quick summer preview, but also some pretty wet seasonal days. I remember 1993 pretty clearly. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Westerlies are initiating as the trough axis shifts overhead. In response low level convergence is rapidly initiating, as well as stratoform drizzle.

To the north over the Strait of Georgia the main occlusion band is going strong. That feature will drift SE over the Sound throughout the day tomorrow. It may very well be a cold drizzly day.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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  • Longtimer

So... We had a 56/46 day with 0.43" of rain today. Pushes up to 7.56" on the month. And since Tim is making a big deal about Seattle being close to their JJA average... Our JJA average is 4.53", JJAS is 7.01. It could not rain until October and JJAS would still be "wetter" than normal, by that metric. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

GFS ensemble looks ROCK solid. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I do like Meaty.  Fresh perspective and funny as sh*t.  Never even thought about him banning anyone.   

Good, this'll buy you another couple weeks.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, but it wasn't weeks of dry weather like May 2018. That was summer. May 1993 had a quick summer preview, but also some pretty wet seasonal days. I remember 1993 pretty clearly. 

Its not like every May is just cold and wet and though... even back through history.   It often has enough summery weather to avoid being depressing like this May.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Westerlies are initiating as the trough axis shifts overhead. In response low level convergence is rapidly initiating, as well as stratoform drizzle.

To the north over the Strait of Georgia the main occlusion band is going strong. That feature will drift SE over the Sound throughout the day tomorrow. It may very well be a cold drizzly day.

But Skagit just got my hopes up about a dry weekend. 😞

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

But Skagit just got my hopes up about a dry weekend. 😞

I got some good news for you Randy.    The 00Z ECMWF shows more substantial clearing during the afternoon the next 2 days... particularly from Seattle to Bellingham.

The is the 4-panel frame for Saturday and Sunday at 5 p.m.   I think you will definitely see some sun this weekend.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-clouds_fourpanel-5596800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-clouds_fourpanel-5683200 (1).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Euro has a couple drizzly looking cool days next week but also a couple nice days by the looks of it. Overall it stays pretty cool though through day 7. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Euro has a couple drizzly looking cool days next week but also a couple nice days by the looks of it. Overall it stays pretty cool though through day 7. 

Actually more like a morning clouds... afternoon sun scenario after Monday.     There are no full on drizzly days after this weekend.    Its a vast improvement across the board compared to what we have been seeing and improved from its 12Z run as well. 

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00Z ECMWF shows PDX close to 90 and SEA around 80 by next Saturday.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Significant improvements on the EPS and control run for later in the week and next weekend as well.    Trough slides east instead of south and a ridge forms over the PNW on both runs.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Not everywhere. My brother lives in Sweden. He's not a spoiled Southern Californian like I am.

image.png.d31579deec4e658ff472a5cb84c56f99.png

Niiiice. Just booked tickets to see the in-laws in Stockholm this August. Looking forward to a break from this climate :)

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4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I love mustard on hamburgers and hot dogs.  Can't stand ketchup. 

I don't like mustard and ketchup. I also don't eat hotdogs and hamburgers.

@PhilI've been vegetarian for 20 years because of texture and taste of meats.

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  • Longtimer

GFS operational is an explosively hot outlier on the 06z ensemble suite, but it led the way this time last year! You know we're gonna bake eventually. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Also appears to be the possibility of some wet weather to end the month on the EURO ensembles. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Warmest day of the year likely incoming Tuesday. Highs in the mid-upper 70s seems reasonable; that figure is reciprocated across most guidance, though the jury is still out on the north Sound. Hell, if high clouds trend thicker and more south, Seattle may hold off on surpassing 73F for the first time this year yet still. After Tuesday, marine influence yet again takes over and it may be longer still before we finally reach the mid 70s at KSEA.

Hell, I'd welcome a warm day or two. For once this last stupid decade we've actually earned it. Torching has, in fact, not begot torching this season. A nice change of pace. I have no doubt in my mind that we'll evade long stretches of 80s and 90s, at least through July.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Wednesday may be a marine layer day. Highs in the low 60s with morning drizzle, similar to today and tomorrow.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest we'll overperform on high temperatures today. There's been a sharp uptick in temps this afternoon across all guidance, and climo usually suggests early clearing.

As a footnote, HRRR suggests some decent CAPE later today. May get some small hail if we clear up.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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  • Longtimer

Looks like it's cloudy and 44. Dogs have been going wild all night. Major cougar panic on the local FB group. For whatever reason we have a lot of cats in the area this year. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Headed down to see the Sounders today, the last match I went to was Kasey Kelley’s retirement match, so it’s been a minute.  Hopefully we don’t have to deal with too much rain.

 

Speaking of that, just noticed an interesting feature with the percip north of the border. It’s moving south; but there is a wave moving north through the precip of increased intensity…

C6A8BBFC-0A4C-44EF-ACD6-1E925673FFED.thumb.gif.418779bd317cd71f2309617f92bd7a82.gif

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2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest we'll overperform on high temperatures today. There's been a sharp uptick in temps this afternoon across all guidance, and climo usually suggests early clearing.

As a footnote, HRRR suggests some decent CAPE later today. May get some small hail if we clear up.

Not that it means much... but the cloud bases are higher than I was expecting this morning out here and there are even a few patches of blue sky.   Also sprinkling.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Really challenging situation in terms of the forecast coming up.   Models have no idea how to handle the expanding high pressure and troughing to the north.    It should be generally nice but any significant warmth is still very much up in the air.   The 06Z GFS was even warmer for later in the week and next weekend.   But I see the 06Z GEFS, EPS, and control run all look like they are back to keeping the trough to the north intact rather than splitting it like the 00Z runs showed which allowed a ridge to develop.

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  • Longtimer

.09” so far on the day, 4.81” for the month. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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8 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Actually more like a morning clouds... afternoon sun scenario after Monday.     There are no full on drizzly days after this weekend.    Its a vast improvement across the board compared to what we have been seeing and improved from its 12Z run as well. 

 

Yeah doesn’t look too bad seems pretty close to climo for early summer. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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12Z GFS goes bonkers with the ridging... mid 90s in Seattle by day 10.    I am pretty sure that won't happen. 😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Next weekend is looking like it has a shot at being great.  Maybe some big diurnal spreads in the wake of that clipper as well.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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12Z GEM is much more ridgy for next weekend compared to its 00Z run.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Really challenging situation in terms of the forecast coming up.   Models have no idea how to handle the expanding high pressure and troughing to the north.    It should be generally nice but any significant warmth is still very much up in the air.   The 06Z GFS was even warmer for later in the week and next weekend.   But I see the 06Z GEFS, EPS, and control run all look like they are back to keeping the trough to the north intact rather than splitting it like the 00Z runs showed which allowed a ridge to develop.

The GFS is too warm but analogs (and numerical guidance) suggests that period from the end of June until mid-July is favored for a warmer pattern. Sticking to my guns on this one.

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Then it seems Jesse might get his way with the next IO MJO/-dAAMt in mid/late July into August. Looking increasingly potent on LR guidance as we get closer (and tropical forcing analogs also bullish on it).

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

The GFS is too warm but analogs (and numerical guidance) suggests that period from the end of June until mid-July is favored for a warmer pattern. Sticking to my guns on this one.

GFS is always too extreme... warm and cold.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Then it seems Jesse might get his way with the next IO MJO/-dAAMt in mid/late July into August. Looking increasingly potent on LR guidance as we get closer (and tropical forcing analogs also bullish on it).

So back to daily rain and temps in the 50s and 60s during the second half of July and all of August?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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OT but holy crap this weather is amazing! Low/mid 70s with dewpoints in the 40s. We will be spending the whole day outside.

I’m almost in tears it feels so good. :lol:  Especially after yesterday’s 99°F torchfest.

E9D0C9D5-5DA8-4921-8AEB-1A32B08DBC9A.jpeg 

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Appreciable sun breaks here and dry so far.    Looks like the clouds are a little more broken to the south and east of Seattle on the satellite.   At least for now.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

GFS wants us to return to the summer pattern of 2013-21.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

OT but holy crap this weather is amazing! Low/mid 70s with dewpoints in the 40s. We will be spending the whole day outside.

I’m almost in tears it feels so good. :lol:  Especially after yesterday’s 99°F torchfest.

E9D0C9D5-5DA8-4921-8AEB-1A32B08DBC9A.jpeg 

Spectacular!

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So back to daily rain and temps in the 50s and 60s during the second half of July and all of August?

That sounds a little extreme. 😂 I’m only looking at 500mb composites, which develop the -PNA look.

Doesn’t look like a firehose or jet extension situation, just an Aleutian block and western trough, of average quality.

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12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Next weekend is looking like it has a shot at being great.  Maybe some big diurnal spreads in the wake of that clipper as well.

Yeah, 12z GFS, 12z GEM, and 00z Euro all show temperatures approaching 80F next weekend. Could be the first summery weekend!

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 21.75" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1", 2/2: Tr, 2/21: 1.5", 2/22: 0.75", 2/23: 1.5", 2/24: 1")

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS wants us to return to the summer pattern of 2013-21.

For as much as y’all get on Tim’s case, you’re literally just as bad when models show the first instance of ridging in 3+ months. :lol: 

And this pattern has been clearly projected on filtered MJO/GWO analog pools for over a month now. So it shouldn’t come as a surprise.

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2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Yeah, 12z GFS, 12z GEM, and 00z Euro all show temperatures approaching 80F next weekend. Could be the first summery weekend!

12Z GEFS looks good too.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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