June 2022 - Summer Begins

[Anti Marine Layer]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS continue to look totally reasonable... like past runs of the GFS.    Its a little damp and chilly from Friday-Sunday but it turns nice again early next week.     Makes sense.   Too bad the ECMWF does not agree and I am tired of falling for the GFS false promises.  

ECMWF=Evil crummy malicious weather forecast

[Omegaraptor]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Sure clouded up quickly. Now rain pushing across the coast range into the western willamette valley from about Salem-north. 

Lol. Impossible to get a raindrop all of January and February. Now that it’s June, it’s pathetically easy!

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS continue to look totally reasonable... like past runs of the GFS.    Its a little damp and chilly from Friday-Sunday but it turns nice again early next week.     Makes sense.   Too bad the ECMWF does not agree and I am tired of falling for the GFS false promises.  

The GFS 500mb evolution is not reasonable, though.

Doesn’t mean it won’t be nice. But it won’t happen as a result of a spontaneously manifesting offshore ULL.

[Phil]

Anyone with eyes can tell the long range GFS 500mb evolution over the NPAC is complete bulls**t. Same error yet again.

There’s nothing “reasonable” about that.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

The GFS 500mb evolution is not reasonable, though.

Doesn’t mean it won’t be nice. But it won’t happen as a result of a spontaneously manifesting offshore ULL.

Yeah... that will never happen.    Its shown it way too many times and been wrong for me to even consider it being possible.

So the alternative is the ECMWF solution which shows rain every day for the next 10 days.     That is pretty much what is going to happen.   Time to look towards July for the first 3-day sunny break.   How long can it go... already in uncharted waters.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

The GFS showing a transition to sunny weather 10 days out is this summer’s analog of it always showing an arctic blast at least 10 days out for most of the winter.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... that will never happen.    Its shown it way too many times and been wrong for me to even consider it being possible.

So the alternative is the ECMWF solution which shows rain every day for the next 10 days.     That is pretty much what is going to happen.   Time to look towards July for the first 3-day sunny break.   How long can it go... already in uncharted waters.

I’m not sure the ECMWF solution is the only other alternative.

The odds for a warmer than average pattern increase during early July (maybe even the very end of June) and continues until the middle of July. The way that can happen may involve a prograding GOA ridge under increasing AAM, as a modest CCKW/MJO reaches the West-Pacific.

If that fails to shake things up, then I’m honestly not sure what will. Might have to wait for seasonality to take over (where relations between wave dynamics and tropical forcing evolve to favor a warm pattern late in the summer and early autumn under the same background state that currently favors cool).

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m not sure the ECMWF solution is the only other alternative.

The odds for a warmer than average pattern increase during early July (maybe even the very end of June) and continues until the middle of July. The way that can happen may involve a prograding GOA ridge under increasing AAM, as a modest CCKW/MJO reaches the West-Pacific.

If that fails to shake things up, then I’m honestly not sure what will. Might have to wait for seasonality to take over (where relations between wave dynamics and tropical forcing evolve to favor a warm pattern late in the summer and early autumn under the same background state that currently favors cool).

Its pretty crazy.    Literally every year for the last 125 years has managed a 3-day dry spell here by this point in the warm season.   Even the wettest/coldest spring and summer years in our history.     Seems so simple... and now seemingly impossible.

[Deweydog]

https://www.kgw.com/article/tech/science/climate-change/climate-changes-impact-youth-mental-health/283-fcd3da8a-7c5f-49ea-bada-27f17ece6f71
 

[BLI snowman]

34 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Sure clouded up quickly. Now rain pushing across the coast range into the western willamette valley from about Salem-north. 

Yeah, I just looked up out my window and was surprised. Might avoid 70s today for me. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its pretty crazy.    Literally every year for the last 125 years has managed a 3-day dry spell here by this point in the warm season.   Even the wettest/coldest spring/summer years in our history.     Seems so simple... and now seemingly impossible.

The Rain Gods love you.

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its pretty crazy.    Literally every year for the last 125 years has managed a 3-day dry spell here by this point in the warm season.   Even the wettest/coldest spring and summer years in our history.     Seems so simple... and now seemingly impossible.

I suspect we’ll find out Tonga really did affect atmospheric circulation via injection of H2O into the stratosphere over the tropical indo-Pacific, and likely re-ignited the La Niña (which seemed to be fading in January).

There’s an unprecedented amount of H2O still present in the stratosphere, and that will almost certainly absolutely impact the BDC/mass circulation, and by consequence, tropical deep convection.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

I suspect we’ll find out Tonga really did affect atmospheric circulation via injection of H2O into the stratosphere over the tropical indo-Pacific, and likely re-ignited the La Niña (which seemed to be fading in January).

There’s an unprecedented amount of H2O still present in the stratosphere, and that will almost certainly absolutely impact the BDC/mass circulation, and by consequence, tropical deep convection.

Yeah... apparently it goes beyond just re-igniting the Nina because even the worst Nina years aren't this persistent.  

[Timmy]

16 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, I just looked up out my window and was surprised. Might avoid 70s today for me. 

I had a double take, I thought it was supposed to be nice today.  “Mostly dry” according to kptv…

[TT-SEA]

The GEM also indicates that most of next week will dry... like the GFS.    

And I am almost positive the 12Z ECMWF will still show rain every day.     And it will be right.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/469158/stunning-skies-may-be-byproduct-of-tonga-volcano-eruption

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The GEM also indicates that most of next week will dry... like the GFS.    

And I am almost positive the 12Z ECMWF will still show rain every day.     And it will be right.  

The GEM looks more reasonable than the GFS, though. At least it’s physically possible.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Timmy said:

I had a double take, I thought it was supposed to be nice today.  “Mostly dry” according to kptv…

MCS

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/469158/stunning-skies-may-be-byproduct-of-tonga-volcano-eruption

From this article...

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

From this article...

 

The question is how the water vapor interacts with other components that the eruption lofted into the stratosphere. The article also mentions a general lack of experience with powerful eruptions that were this water-based. So while the above expert opinion about warming is still an expert and not a random crackpot assessment, it is still based on limited experience, and should IMO be taken with more a grain of salt than an opinion about a more conventional explosive eruption.

Also, the winter they are talking about is the Southern Hemisphere winter that is just commencing in NZ.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Cloudy but dry here with radar showing no immediate moisture threats, though it also shows distant stuff that may well affect us this afternoon (which would be right in line with what is forecast).

[TT-SEA]

That thick mid-level deck of clouds and rain down south is shown to lift across the Seattle area this afternoon.   I was wondering why the ECMWF was showing temps dropping up here during the afternoon.   Now I know why.   Should get better this afternoon in Portland.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like Salem is going to miss out on this round.

 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Cloudy but dry here with radar showing no immediate moisture threats, though it also shows distant stuff that may well affect us this afternoon (which would be right in line with what is forecast).

We posted simultaneously... you are correct.

[Deweydog]

Heads up North Plains!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pivotal EURO run in progress. RIGHT NOW. 

[TT-SEA]

This afternoon per the 12Z ECMWF... this was the one day that the 00Z ECMWF showed being dry here.   Can't even manage one day let alone 3.  

[FroYoBro]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This afternoon per the 12Z ECMWF... this was the one day that the 00Z ECMWF showed being dry here.   Can't even manage one day let alone 3.  

Bro, you work inside all day. Stop acting like a few raindrops will ruin your day. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This afternoon per the 12Z ECMWF... this was the one day that the 00Z ECMWF showed being dry here.   Can't even manage one day let alone 3.  

Tlaloc loves you!

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Bro, you work inside all day. Stop acting like a few raindrops will ruin your day. 

Bro... still looking for a 3-day dry spell.   It could rain every single day with no sun ever and it would not physically hurt me.   Thanks for letting me know!  But it sure is becoming depressing and I am not alone in that feeling.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows light rain and drizzle and temps in the 50s all weekend in the Seattle area.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Bro... still looking for a 3-day dry spell.   It could rain every single day with no sun ever and it would not physically hurt me.   Thanks for letting me know!  But it sure is becoming depressing and I am not alone in that feeling.

Ted Bundy was not alone in his feelings toward women.

[OysterPrintout]

Pounding my fist on my desk in furious anger when the euro shows an hour of periodic drizzle at 10pm

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Pounding my fist on my desk in furious anger when the euro shows an hour of periodic drizzle at 10pm

An hour of drizzle at 10 p.m. would be spectacular.

The ECMWF shows light rain and drizzle from Friday afternoon through Monday... with temps basically in the 50s.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks pretty light to me... Kind of typical type of rainfall we see in June. No more AR's until October. 

[FroYoBro]

Well, it’s obvious Tim can’t slow down his manic complaining on his own. I suggest we all block him and just let him post 20 times a day to an empty forum. I can’t read any more of it, lol. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, FroYoBro said:

Well, it’s obvious Tim can’t slow down his manic complaining on his own. I suggest we all block him and just let him post 20 times a day to an empty forum. I can’t read any more of it, lol. 

Sorry.   Probably a good idea.

[MossMan]

This is why I pick this week every year to come over, everyone is still busy with School ending, graduations, gearing up for the 4th etc. We have the park to ourselves! Doesn’t matter if it’s like today with temps in the upper 60’s currently or if it was in the 80’s, it’s always super quiet this week of June! 

[OysterPrintout]

4 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Well, it’s obvious Tim can’t slow down his manic complaining on his own. I suggest we all block him and just let him post 20 times a day to an empty forum. I can’t read any more of it, lol. 

are you kidding this is the best part of the weather forum offseason just people trying to get Tim mad about the rain and him obliging with 40 replies every hour about it.

[OysterPrintout]

4 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

According to some of the experts, snow should have been a thing of the past by today.  Parents should have been telling their children of what once used to be.

But we all know the lefties strategy. Take a real problem, whether it be climate change, COVID-19 or racism, exaggerate it, create panic and say it's the end of the world if you don't vote for them. Slowly and subtly take away our  freedoms and condition us all to accept authoritarianism. Never let a crisis go to waste.

Lenin used the term "useful idiots" for a reason. But that's a discussion for the politics thread.

 

 

would probably fit better in a thread for incorrectly attributed quotes and unhinged hyperbole