June 2022 - Summer Begins

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

KSEA maxed at 59°F around 1pm. Given increasing cloudcover and impending rain I'll wage that that'll be the high today. Around 4-7°F below what I expected.

The main cloud shield will probably be to the north by 4 or 5 p.m. but probably too late for temps to recover much.

[snow_wizard]

Wow!  The warm biased GFS meteograms were terrible for today.  The 0z was going for 70 for SEA and they are currently at 57.  Incredible that just making 70 is a struggle so far this year.

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow!  The warm biased GFS meteograms were terrible for today.  The 0z was going for 70 for SEA and they are currently at 57.  Incredible that just making 70 is a struggle so far this year.

High water mark so far here is 74…and we’ve got to 70 just 4 times so far this year. Pretty good chance today will be our 3rd sub 60 high this month the most since June 2012. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow!  The warm biased GFS meteograms were terrible for today.  The 0z was going for 70 for SEA and they are currently at 57.  Incredible that just making 70 is a struggle so far this year.

Won't happen until maybe the last few days of the month.    Run the ECMWF 10-day cloud loop.    

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

High water mark so far here is 74…and we’ve got to 70 just 4 times so far this year. Pretty good chance today will be our 3rd sub 60 high this month the most since June 2012. 

You might start getting some sun down there in about an hour based on the satellite loop.

[The Swamp]

Dumping rain in the swamp.

[Meatyorologist]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The main cloud shield will probably be to the north by 4 or 5 p.m. but probably too late for temps to recover much.

Same thoughts here. Though behind this rain band there will still be high clouds, albeit much thinner.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Won't happen until maybe the last few days of the month.    Run the ECMWF 10-day cloud loop.    

Terribly depressing.  Basically no totally dry days in the next 10, although most show only a little bit of rain.

[TacomaWaWx]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You might start getting some sun down there in about an hour based on the satellite loop.

How dare you say that . Would be fine with me haven’t had much sun the last few days. 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

@Phil  any chance that 1984 is analog coming up?

I haven’t looked at that year too closely. I do know it was very different on the Atlantic side vs this year..legitimately cool summer here. Doesn’t look like a great match in that regard.

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow!  The warm biased GFS meteograms were terrible for today.  The 0z was going for 70 for SEA and they are currently at 57.  Incredible that just making 70 is a struggle so far this year.

The GFS sucks.

[snow_wizard]

The 12z GFS and ECMWF show Saturday of the weekend following this one could be nice.  Both look clear for next Friday night too.

[The Swamp]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The 12z GFS and ECMWF show Saturday of the weekend following this one could be nice.  Both look clear for next Friday night too.

yeah, that's not gonna last - give it a day or two for the clouds to be added and some rain

[Meatyorologist]

ICON shows 36 straight hours of PSCZ drizzle at my place from Sunday through Monday lmao. Wouldn't be the worst but even that's excessive.

Oh well, if it's gonna gloom, it better gloom, so bring it on, I guess!

[MossMan]

The hell kind of crap is this…

0% chance of rain but light rain starting in a bit with .07” forecasted. This is supposed to be one of the more accurate apps. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 12z GFS and ECMWF show Saturday of the weekend following this one could be nice.  Both look clear for next Friday night too.

So we are left with looking 9 to 10 days out for a clear day... seems right.   And 10 days out always works out as planned.  

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

The hell kind of crap is this…

0% chance of rain but light rain starting in a bit with .07” forecasted. This is supposed to be one of the more accurate apps. 

lol, weather app's gonna weather app

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The hell kind of crap is this…

0% chance of rain but light rain starting in a bit with .07” forecasted. This is supposed to be one of the more accurate apps. 

Pretty funny alright.

The weather has sucked balls over there too this year.  That is really unusual.

[TacomaWaWx]

18z is pretty wet for the willamette valley with a TWL special. 

[snow_wizard]

The rain band is washing out as it moves north.  Oh darn.

[snow_wizard]

The EPS shows the EPO crashing to -4 by next weekend.  If that doesn't dry it out nothing will.

[Phishy Wx]

I'm getting scared.

 

It's Sunny and up to 66 now.

[TT-SEA]

28 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

ICON shows 36 straight hours of PSCZ drizzle at my place from Sunday through Monday lmao. Wouldn't be the worst but even that's excessive.

Oh well, if it's gonna gloom, it better gloom, so bring it on, I guess!

Technical analysis post here...

The 18Z GFS continues to look much more reasonable in terms of weather conditions for the weekend.   Apparently the difference is that the GFS has been closing off a little ULL just to our southeast which results in weak NE flow.    The ECMWF and ICON show more of an open trough to the east by Sunday which creates onshore flow that is strong enough to lock in the clouds and drizzle but not strong enough to benefit from any downslope from the Olympics.     Minor detail but makes a huge difference in tangible weather in the Seattle area.    

And of course the GFS will be wrong.  Because as Phil correctly says... the GFS sucks.

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEM also shows the ULL rather than the open trough.   And I believe the GEM sucks just about as bad as the GFS.  

 

[MossMan]

24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty funny alright.

The weather has sucked balls over there too this year.  That is really unusual.

Been craptastic so far.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Either way, what the GFS is showing is much more typical June weather system as opposed to what happened a week ago. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Sky is getting bright AF.

Get out the sunglasses. 

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Either way, what the GFS is showing is much more typical June weather system as opposed to what happened a week ago. 

Devil is in the details on the far superior ECMWF.    No AR events or anything crazy... but basically cloudy and damp for most of the next 8 or 9 days in the Seattle area.    Tomorrow is the best chance of some afternoon sun.   Then we wait again until later next week.   That is a long wait given the recent weather.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Devil is in the details on the far superior ECMWF.    No AR events or anything crazy... but basically cloudy and damp for most of the next 8 or 9 days in the Seattle area.    Tomorrow is the best chance of some afternoon sun.   Then we wait again until later next week.   That is a long wait given the recent weather.  

Okay, just saying it's a much more seasonably normal system. 

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Devil is in the details on the far superior ECMWF.    No AR events or anything crazy... but basically cloudy and damp for most of the next 8 or 9 days in the Seattle area.    Tomorrow is the best chance of some afternoon sun.   Then we wait again until later next week.   That is a long wait given the recent weather.  

https://sunshinehouse.com/blog/top-20-rainy-day-activities/

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That's a nice cool trough in the mid-range. Stays dry down here, so we will take that and the continued pleasant temps!

[Phishy Wx]

now 68, going to sit on the deck (in shorts) at the brewery down the street and enjoy some hops.  Cheers to hump day Happy Hour!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

YVR now reporting light rain. Did make it up to 60°F there before it commenced, so there’s that.

 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

The hell kind of crap is this…

0% chance of rain but light rain starting in a bit with .07” forecasted. This is supposed to be one of the more accurate apps. 

Get the AWeather app. Products directly from the NWS point and click. Even includes the AFDs.

[Phil]

Well, the GFS 500mb evolution makes more sense this run. Ditched that spontaneously-manifesting ULL solution depicted on the 12z.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Well, the GFS 500mb evolution makes more sense this run. Ditched that spontaneously-manifesting ULL solution depicted on the 12z.

It's so beautiful. 

[Meatyorologist]

49 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Technical analysis post here...

The 18Z GFS continues to look much more reasonable in terms of weather conditions for the weekend.   Apparently the difference is that the GFS has been closing off a little ULL just to our southeast which results in weak NE flow.    The ECMWF and ICON show more of an open trough to the east by Sunday which creates onshore flow that is strong enough to lock in the clouds and drizzle but not strong enough to benefit from any downslope from the Olympics.     Minor detail but makes a huge difference in tangible weather in the Seattle area.    

And of course the GFS will be wrong.  Because as Phil correctly says... the GFS sucks.

 

This is really insightful, good eye and I agree with this completely.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's so beautiful. 

It’s beautiful for you.

[Meatyorologist]

This is absurd for June 23rd.

[Meatyorologist]

Amazing stat at KSEA

[Omegaraptor]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

This is absurd for June 23rd.