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June 2022 - Summer Begins


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Holy molasses. Almost certainly one of the strongest boreal summer trade surges on record in the satellite era if the healthier cluster verifies.

Any recent attempt warm the subsurface/ENSO is going to get obliterated by this.

297688C9-07B3-4896-AC4F-542437EAAFF0.png

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19 minutes ago, Phil said:

Can we get a backyard pic? 

In Bellingham taking care of my ailing father on Father's Day.    Cloudy and drizzling up here.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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16 minutes ago, Phil said:

Holy molasses. Almost certainly one of the strongest boreal summer trade surges on record in the satellite era if the healthier cluster verifies.

Any recent attempt warm the subsurface/ENSO is going to get obliterated by this.

297688C9-07B3-4896-AC4F-542437EAAFF0.png

Hopefully that means dry and pleasant from July-September.    Almost inevitable if we are following any semblance of normal weather cycles here.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like our averages for the month so far are 62.6/47.3. Good for about a -1.5 departure month to date. Highs about 4 degrees below average, the lows about a degree or so above average due to all the cloud cover. 

I’ll have to check where we’re at when I get home but we’re probably also about -1.5. Might finish the month at or slightly above average which is pretty nice. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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8600FCFE-4166-41A7-938A-EBB2845CC689.jpeg

Spent fathers day morning with the old man, went by discovery park. The main trail down to the water is too damaged by erosion due to the heavy rain this Spring and early summer. A small price to pay for general comfort and endless green.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In Bellingham taking care of my ailing father on Father's Day.    Cloudy and drizzling up here.  

I’m sorry mate. Sending healing energy. 🙏 

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Today is verifying warmer than any previous guidance due to weakened ridging aloft. Cap became less stable and the low levels have mixed happily. Still overcast and cool, but not drizzly and 55

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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66 here don’t think 70 is in the cards today. We will see if we can hit 80 before the end of the month…even if we do still our latest first +80 already in a decade as it is. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

8600FCFE-4166-41A7-938A-EBB2845CC689.jpeg

Spent fathers day morning with the old man, went by discovery park. The main trail down to the water is too damaged by erosion due to the heavy rain this Spring and early summer. A small price to pay for general comfort and endless green.

Small price to pay?   So our normal weather is that horrific?   🤔 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Small price to pay?   So our normal weather is that horrific?   🤔 

Torching for weeks on end is horrific. Normal weather is nice in a vacuum; disappointing when in the context of above normal summers this last decade.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Horrific... :rolleyes:

(bottom right is most definitely a warm/humid thunderstorm setup, but you get the picture)

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Torching for weeks on end is horrific. Normal weather is nice in a vacuum; disappointing when in the context of above normal summers this last decade.

Torching and wet is fine for vegetation... like 2019.    Seattle hasn't even been dry over the last decade.    Our normal weather should be able to support our vegetation.   And it does.   

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40 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In Bellingham taking care of my ailing father on Father's Day.    Cloudy and drizzling up here.  

It's a beautiful day at my location. Low sixties but very light breeze so it feels like 70 or so. Beautiful and I'm enjoying it.

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34 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

8600FCFE-4166-41A7-938A-EBB2845CC689.jpeg

Spent fathers day morning with the old man, went by discovery park. The main trail down to the water is too damaged by erosion due to the heavy rain this Spring and early summer. A small price to pay for general comfort and endless green.

No king

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ECMWF is all over the map as to how this pattern eventually breaks down.

This morning it had the low centered over Oregon.  12z has it coming in north of Washington.

Probably end up passing well to our north and just adds some cooling but no rain.  Fingers crossed.

Screen Shot 2022-06-19 at 2.51.18 PM.png

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18 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

It's a beautiful day at my location. Low sixties but very light breeze so it feels like 70 or so. Beautiful and I'm enjoying it.

Sounds nice.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's not damaging unless it's 2015 or 2021 levels. Hell 2012 was probably way worse at the end of the year than 2019.

I just like the appearance of green, lush plant life. I know it's a factor of our climate and the vegetation is equipped for it, but the lower biosphere turning brown has always been a disappointment. Late Spring/early summer has always been my favorite part of the warm season because of the lush look to everything.

That's cool.  I like that lush look too.  

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  • Longtimer

Was 63 down in silverton. Creek still running high. 56 and cloudy back home. 

5BA533C5-74BA-4477-8B9D-7061E552B0B3.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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8 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

ECMWF is all over the map as to how this pattern eventually breaks down.

This morning it had the low centered over Oregon.  12z has it coming in north of Washington.

Probably end up passing well to our north and just adds some cooling but no rain.  Fingers crossed.

Screen Shot 2022-06-19 at 2.51.18 PM.png

Cutoff ULLs 8-10 days out are known for being very easy to forecast.

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18 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Cutoff ULLs 8-10 days out are known for being very easy to forecast.

On the flip side, ULL displacement is how Arctic blasts materialize within the 3-5 day range ❄️❄️❄️❄️

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That's cool.  I like that lush look too.  

And your area is is a good place for staying green year round. In the city at sea level surrounded by concrete and away from the water that is an impossibility, barring some 1857/1993 type summer.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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18Z GFS sure looks convective on day 8... with a negatively tilted trough lifting north offshore.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS sure looks convective on day 8... with a negatively tilted trough lifting north offshore.

image.png

Steep lapse rates in the mid levels and extremely high PWAT's. This would be one of the better July thunderstorm outbreaks of all time. Similar evolution to May 4 2017, which placed Seattle under a marginal risk.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

image.png

Steep lapse rates in the mid levels and extremely high PWAT's. This would be one of the better July thunderstorm outbreaks of all time. Similar evolution to May 4 2017, which placed Seattle under a marginal risk.

Except it would still be in June.   👍

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Except it would still be in June.   👍

oh right, didn't even look at the date, "8 days away" just felt like July to me 🤷‍♂️

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Torching and wet is fine for vegetation... like 2019.    Seattle hasn't even been dry over the last decade.    Our normal weather should be able to support our vegetation.   And it does.   

Torching is not normal. Torching and wet is definitely not normal.

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18z GFS looks like many of the 12z EPS members, with the ULL cutting through the ridge.

I’m surprised (and pleased) to see the GFS isn’t trapping that ULL in the GOA. I remember last year that bias improved through the summer. Maybe it’s more of a spring/early summer issue.

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  • Longtimer

Looks like maybe we peak around the low 90s in the valley next weekend and then crash hard. I don’t think an above average month is a lock... But we ll see. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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17 minutes ago, Phil said:

Torching is not normal. Torching and wet is definitely not normal.

And the last 3 months have not been normal either.   Whatever.   Its does not need to be in the 50s and raining every day for our trees to survive. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And the last 3 months have not been normal either.   Whatever.   Its does not need to be in the 50s and raining every day for our trees to survive. 

Correct, but after last summer it would probably help.

FWIW, the reason most conifers don’t grow well here is because of the tropical-like summers.

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Correct, but after last summer it would probably help.

FWIW, the reason most conifers don’t grow well here is because of the tropical-like summers.

I know what you're trying to say here but this is a terrible comparison. The humidity renders heat waves here and heat waves in the midatlantic completely unrecognizable. Even the inland NW where temps regularly get into the 90s have some pine tree growth, and hardly any deciduous growth.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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July 2009 heat in Cottbus, Germany.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

I know what you're trying to say here but this is a terrible comparison. The humidity renders heat waves here and heat waves in the midatlantic completely unrecognizable. Even the inland NW where temps regularly get into the 90s have some pine tree growth, and hardly any deciduous growth.

Isn't the South covered in pine forests?

Those scraggly digger pines have no problem growing in very hot summer areas in inland northern/central California either.

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I know what you're trying to say here but this is a terrible comparison. The humidity renders heat waves here and heat waves in the midatlantic completely unrecognizable. Even the inland NW where temps regularly get into the 90s have some pine tree growth, and hardly any deciduous growth.

Tim had mentioned the warm/wet 2019 being good for the trees. Was trying to say there’s a limit for how “beneficial” that is.

Of course it depends on the species. Plenty of Pines can tolerate that kind of weather, where-as Douglas Firs would have a much harder time.

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

July 2009 heat in Cottbus, Germany.

Tonga seems to have cranked up the heat everywhere!    We can't hide forever.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Tim had mentioned the warm/wet 2019 being good for the trees. Was trying to say there’s a limit for how “beneficial” that is.

Of course it depends on the species.

I see. Of course that type of extreme humidity for months on end will never be seen here in the lowland PNW. God help us if it ever does... We would be re-enacting some of the pre mammalian era weather 🦎

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Isn't the South covered in pine forests?

Those scraggly digger pines have no problem growing in very hot summer areas in inland northern/central California either.

Loblolly Pines, yeah. Those grow here as well, isolated individuals dot the woodlands. But nothing like down south.

White Pine and Hemlock are the dominant conifers locally. The latter of which has suffered under the unrelenting string of +TNH summers over the last decade.

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  • Longtimer
29 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

sfct.us_nw.png

!!!

92 at Salem and 100 at PDX... odd. Beginnings of a marine push? 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Well we tried for a below average June, the mild nights kind of kept us out of contention I guess. 

A balmy 58/47 today. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well we tried for a below average June, the mild nights kind of kept us out of contention I guess. 

A balmy 58/47 today. 

Could’ve been much much worse. Probably one of my favorite junes ever even with some warmth at the end likely 68/51 here today. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Could’ve been much much worse. Probably one of my favorite junes ever even with some warmth at the end likely 68/51 here today. 

Well at least maybe this means September/October aren't a lock for being bone dry now. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Very lush and green. Should take at least until mid to late July to dry out. 

86C66B2C-9CA9-4CA8-AC49-906EBB161C88.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well at least maybe this means September/October aren't a lock for being bone dry now. 

Seems like the faucet is shutting off right about the same time it did in 2020 and 2021. Based on that it would lead to the faucet being turned on in the 2nd half of September but every years different obviously. The euro does show some light rain late in the run gfs too so the faucet might not technically shut off just yet. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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