June 2022 - Summer Begins

[T-Town]

Some photos from yesterday evening. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Mostly cloudy with a low of 51 this morning. Looks like the radar is beginning to fill in to the south and east. 

Looks like the EPS is fairly close to average in the long range 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Smells like people have their wood stoves going tonight.   It’s mid June FFS  

Had ours going yesterday. Cloudy and only got up to 62, the baby was cold. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Mostly cloudy with a low of 51 this morning. Looks like the radar is beginning to fill in to the south and east. 

Looks like the EPS is fairly close to average in the long range 

Looks like we get one more cool mostly dry trough before we hit our summer stride right on schedule. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Radar looks pretty impressive and it is pouring. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Low of 52 this morning. Gonna be a wet afternoon. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Over 1/4” with this band of rain. 

[Phil]

4 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

That is an unbelievable trough just north of the Great Lakes on the fantasy range 06z GFS... Sea level snow at a similar latitude to us, in early July. Wild stuff.

GFS be trollin’ me.

Also had an epic trough here Sat-Tues on yesterday’s 12z, but now shows ridging moving back in Mon evening. Can’t even trust it within 96hrs.

 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

GFS be trollin’ me.

Also had an epic trough here Sat-Tues on yesterday’s 12z, but now shows ridging moving back in Mon evening. Can’t even trust it within 96hrs.

 

Its been trolling us out here for 3 months now.   Promising these goofy breaks in the pattern which always happen even in the worst years.     Has not happened this year at all.    GFS has been wrong every time.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its been trolling us out here for 3 months now.   Promising these goofy breaks in the pattern which always happen even in the worst years.     Has not happened this year at all.    GFS has been wrong every time.

I still think there’ll be a hiatus in the cool pattern out there during the first half of July thanks to the MJO/GWO.

But yeah, I’ve learned not to take GFS bait. For whatever reason, it loves to trap ULLs in the GOA and build heights downstream.

But at least it’s consistent with that error and thus is easy to see when it happens. Reminiscent of the old Euro when it would trap ULLs over the SW US every other run. 

[Phil]

Didn’t Randy’s wife want to move to Houston?

Looks like his kind of weather.

[TT-SEA]

[Phil]

GFS trying to cut off the ULL again. Lmao

[Phishy Wx]

I want to go out on a limb and say Spokane does not hit 100 this summer.  Speaking averages it shouldn't but it has in the 4 summers I've lived here (maybe 2019 was close, but I think? we had a 100 in there somewhere)

 

If we make it to next Wednesday 6/22 without an 80 it will be latest ever.  just like latest ever 70 in late May.  I'm sensing a trend.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

GFS trying to cut off the ULL again. Lmao

History repeats itself.

[TacomaWaWx]

Heaviest precip is still down in Oregon but it looks like it could start raining a bit here soon. 

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Its actually less emphatic about the ULL cutting off over the PNW.     I assume you think that ULL will actually slide east with the main trough?

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its actually less emphatic about the ULL cutting off over the PNW.     I assume you think that ULL will actually slide east with the main trough?

Yes, or farther south.

The error is the attempt to retrograde and trap said ULL in the GOA. Makes no sense.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS showing a sunny and slightly above average weekend coming next week. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

Yes, or farther south.

The error is, once again, the attempt to dissociate and trap said ULL in the GOA. Makes no sense.

Well... I hope its at least right through 120 hours.   Monday - Wednesday look pretty nice which we be appreciated after the next 3 gloomy days.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS showing a sunny and slightly above average weekend coming next week. 

Not that it matters at all... because as Phil points out it will be wrong again.    But here is the same day on the WB maps which are much better than those temp maps on Tropical Tidbits.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Not that it matters at all... because as Phil points out it will be wrong again.    But here is the same day on the WB maps which are much better than those temp maps on Tropical Tidbits.

 

Yeah I get the feeling we will get our first +75 day before the end of the month but will probably have to wait until July to get to 80. Overall things are trending closer to climo on the models after this weekend. 

[TT-SEA]

Grain of salt here... but the 12Z GFS also shows the central CONUS ridge migrating westward by day 10. 

 

[Deweydog]

Forecast contest???

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Forecast contest???

Mark me down for whatever the ECMWF shows.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Forecast contest???

Might not be as interesting as late June last year this time. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

VEI 6!

 

[Phil]

Sad when the low res + underdispersed GEFS understands what’s going on more-so than the operational.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Sad when the low res + underdispersed GEFS understands what’s going on more-so than the operational.

12Z GEFS actually trended east with that ULL by late in the week... going in the opposite direction as the operational run. 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEFS actually trended east with that ULL by late in the week... going in the opposite direction as the operational run. 

Yep, and that’s the rational solution. Followed by the prograding GOA ridge that opens up the warmer/drier pattern.

[MV_snow]

According to Wunderground history in Maple Valley, we have had only 3 days where the sky cover has been less than “mostly cloudy” since April 1. I don’t entirely believe their cloud cover estimation since I remember more nice days than that. But it does go to show the persistency of the pattern here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not that it matters at all... because as Phil points out it will be wrong again.    But here is the same day on the WB maps which are much better than those temp maps on Tropical Tidbits.

 

Like I said. A high of 77 next Saturday for SLE would be right around average. Though the 80 at Seattle is well above average...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

VEI 6!

 

What does this mean? Snow? 

[Anti Marine Layer]

We'll see about that.

[BLI snowman]

Going to really savor every minute of today's rain. Could be the last meaningful precip here for a long time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM is further east with the trough. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Going to really savor every minute of today's rain. Could be the last meaningful precip here for a long time.

I was thinking that earlier today. Actually waited about an hour to go into the office this morning so I could enjoy my coffee on the front porch and listen to the rain. It has been nice. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GEM is further east with the trough. 

GEM looks like the GEFS for later in the week.    12Z GEM looks like its moving the trough east faster than its 00Z run... and sets the stage for a gorgeous weekend in a totally different way than the GFS.

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I was thinking that earlier today. Actually waited about an hour to go into the office this morning so I could enjoy my coffee on the front porch and listen to the rain. It has been nice. 

And for people griping about the persistence of the wet pattern, the perspective that a stark bone dry 90 day period soon awaits us seems totally lost on them. Prisoners of the moment. It's really not a question of if but of when.