June 2022 - Summer Begins

[yellowstone]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well... Yellowstone was burning to the ground in 1988.   This year they just had a 500-year biblical flood.  

I’ve never actually checked the records but I’ve repeatedly heard (when I lived there) that the spring of ‘88 was actually really wet and then the faucet just completely turned off and all that undergrowth that had been able to flourish dried up and died which contributed to how bad that season was…

[Deweydog]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Never had that. Haven’t had a stomach bug of any kind since I was in elementary school.

Have a couple kids. Their sole purpose in life is to ensure it rolls through your household like a tornado that causes bad things to come out of every hole in your body.

Edited June 18, 2022 by Deweydog

[GHweatherChris]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Have a couple kids. They’re sole purpose in life is to ensure it rolls through your household like a tornado that causes bad things to come out of every hole in your body.

Yep, teaches you how to use a bucket and toilet at the same time 

[Meatyorologist]

KSEA holding steady at 55°F with more rain inbound. Looks like the high of 57°F is fairly safe, for now at least. As it stands, a 57/53 day would mean a -7.1°F departure on the day.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty serious rain coming down out there.  Things look to dry out significantly going forward.

[Meatyorologist]

A high of 57°F at KSEA would also be a daily record, beating 2007's record of 58°F for coldest high temperature on this date.

[snow_wizard]

22 minutes ago, Phil said:

Never had that. Haven’t had a stomach bug of any kind since I was in elementary school.

Your high is only going to be 75 tomorrow?  Is that a typo?

[Meatyorologist]

NAM wants to scour out clouds tomorrow, while the HRRR is very adamant on an occlusion band digging through the area from the NW during the heart of daytime heating. Would mean a ~10°F difference in high temps.

Given the NAM's incapability of realizing stratoform rain, I'd bet on the latter solution. Fits global guidance better too.

[Phishy Wx]

2 hours ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

It was horrific, I am permanently scarred.

No, unless you mean literal tiny particles of vomit in the air, then yes. It's mostly spread through contact with contaminated surfaces/foods or literal exposure to vomit particles. It's incredibly contagious. Once it's in your household, it'd be a miracle to avoid it.  I was the last one to get it and it was hard to watch the constant vomiting knowing from my children and wife, knowing that I would soon have my turn. 

I had it in 2002, hit while on a plane from NH (where we lived at the time) to CA.  Had to go to the Emergency room in Chicago on our connector. all of our luggage got lost and I had to wear scrubs to our final destination.  Almost went into cardiac arrest due to extreme dehydration.  sickest ive ever been, I was kinda jokingly hoping the plane would crash I was so sick on that flight.  turrible.  out of both ends for a week straight and at xmas taboot. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

A high of 57°F at KSEA would also be a daily record, beating 2007's record of 58°F for coldest high temperature on this date.

SEA just needs about another .50 to lock down a wetter than normal summer... in the middle of June.    

Not sure today will get us there... but it would be funny to guarantee a wetter than normal summer and then the faucet shuts off completely.    The same people who love rain every day will wonder why it never rains.   But it will already be a statistically wet summer.   

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

NAM wants to scour out clouds tomorrow, while the HRRR is very adamant on an occlusion band digging through the area from the NW during the heart of daytime heating. Would mean a ~10°F difference in high temps.

Given the NAM's incapability of realizing stratoform rain, I'd bet on the latter solution. Fits global guidance better too.

Just follow the ECMWF... its the only model that can accurately predict local conditions in our area.   Its going to be pretty gloomy over the weekend.   But there might be some breaks near the water tomorrow and Sunday.    But it won't be much because it shows a mid-level deck of clouds over the low level clouds around Seattle.    Here is Sunday at 5 p.m.  That is one stubborn marine layer.  

 

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Your high is only going to be 75 tomorrow?  Is that a typo?

Jesus, Jim…

What does this have to do with projectile vomiting???

[Phishy Wx]

41 minutes ago, Phil said:

This forum is the first place I ever heard about norovirus. 

I’ve never had it, nor has anyone I know. Doesn’t sound fun, though.

they called it the 'Norwalk virus' when in first came around in the early '00s.  Then people started calling it the "Cruise Ship virus" because it started on cruises in a lot of cases.  my wife worked at a bank and got it there and then I got it from her.  the worst

[Meatyorologist]

Sunday is a different story with a similar outcome. Building heights aloft trap a potent marine layer at the surface. Instead of a disturbance moving through, it's a ridge, yet somehow we're finding ways to make both bring about clouds and cold June weather.

In fact, if heights were to simply remain low on Sunday, the substantial decrease in low level moisture relative to Saturday would mean fast mixing and highs in the mid-upper 60s. Much better than torching by default.

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA just needs about another .50 to lock down a wetter than normal summer... in the middle of June.    

Not sure today will get us there... but it would be funny to guarantee a wetter than normal summer and then the faucet shuts off completely.    The same people who love rain every day will wonder why it never rains.   But it will already be a statistically wet summer.   

I'm pretty sure the venn diagram for PNW'ers who love rain and follow meteorology is a perfect circle, so probably not much wondering going on there.

Summers are dry here. Big whoop. Couldn't have figured that one out myself..

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Sunday is a different story with a similar outcome. Building heights aloft trap a potent marine layer at the surface. Instead of a disturbance moving through, it's a ridge, yet somehow we're finding ways to make both bring about clouds and cold June weather.

In fact, if heights were to simply remain low on Sunday, the substantial decrease in low level moisture relative to Saturday would mean fast mixing and highs in the mid-upper 60s. Much better than torching by default.

Much worse if it means another weekend of gloomy crap.    But that is what will happen.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm pretty sure the venn diagram for PNW'ers who love rain and follow meteorology is a perfect circle, so probably not much wondering going on there.

Summers are dry here. Big whoop. Couldn't have figured that one out myself..

Hey... I am all for spreading out the rain evenly with nice long breaks in between.    But its been the complete opposite for the last 3 months.    Nature might be about to completely flip.

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Your high is only going to be 75 tomorrow?  Is that a typo?

Nope! It’s a late summer miracle.

Didn't think I’d see 70s again until late September, but looks like we have one final cool shot left in the tank.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Hey... I am all for spreading out the rain evenly with nice long breaks in between.    But its been the complete opposite for the last 3 months.    Nature might be to completely flip.

Did 2011 flip? That analog has been the closest 500mb match since April. 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Hey... I am all for spreading out the rain evenly with nice long breaks in between.    But its been the complete opposite for the last 3 months.    Nature might be about to do the opposite.

You seem to be citing PNW summer climo like it's this infallible "gotcha!" but the truth is no one, and I mean no one, is expecting any of this persistent rain to continue.

The physical truth is, even if troughing persists, baroclinity dies off dramatically in the northern hemisphere as boreal summer progresses, and large scale systems with massive swaths of stratoform rain shields, particularly over the western half of America continent, become much more rare. That is, again, just basic atmospheric physics.

After the calendar flips to July, the vast majority of our measurable rainfall is sourced from marine layer drizzle and one-off thunderstorms. Yes there are errant 'rain days' where potent systems march onshore, but most locals, even the meteorologically uninitiated, are aware that the storm train isn't really a 'thing' during the warm season outside of Volcanic summers... Not to say Tonga has even made a tangible affect on our weather anyways, the jury is still very much up on that debate.

[Phil]

Color me skeptical of this. Has to be some kind of error.

[Meatyorologist]

46 minutes ago, yellowstone said:

I’ve never actually checked the records but I’ve repeatedly heard (when I lived there) that the spring of ‘88 was actually really wet and then the faucet just completely turned off and all that undergrowth that had been able to flourish dried up and died which contributed to how bad that season was…

That is a worry of mine. But so long as we avoid torrid, week-long ridging we should be fine on the fire season. Actually no matter the pattern, just any form of weekly widespread rainfall would be sufficient.

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

You seem to be citing PNW summer climo like it's this infallible "gotcha!" but the truth is no one, and I mean no one, is expecting any of this persistent rain to continue.

The physical truth is, even if troughing persists, baroclinity dies off dramatically in the northern hemisphere as boreal summer progresses, and large scale systems with massive swaths of stratoform rain shields, particularly over the western half of America continent, become much more rare. That is, again, just basic atmospheric physics.

After the calendar flips to July, the vast majority of our measurable rainfall is sourced from marine layer drizzle and one-off thunderstorms. Yes there are errant 'rain days' where potent systems march onshore, but most locals, even the meteorologically uninitiated, are aware that the storm train isn't really a 'thing' during the warm season outside of Volcanic summers... Not to say Tonga has even made a tangible affect on our weather anyways, the jury is still very much up on that debate.

There are many different type of summers here.

In 2019... the rain was literally spread out evenly through the entire summer.     2016 also had the rain more evenly spread out.    I am guessing this might be a 2010 and 2012 situation where we have a faucet shut off.   

But maybe Tonga has changed everything and all normality is out the window.  

[Meatyorologist]

Oh my god... This could not be any more perfectly placed...

[Phil]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Oh my god... This could not be any more perfectly placed...

Tim always scores the precip jackpot.

[NWbyNW]

Did not expect rain at all, but it's raining here.  59F.  

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

There are many different type of summers here.

In 2019... the rain was literally spread out evenly through the entire summer.     2016 also had the rain more evenly spread out.    I am guessing this might be a 2010 and 2012 situation where we have a faucet shut off.   

But maybe Tonga has changed everything and all normality is out the window.  

2019 was great precipitation wise. Actually kept some regular greenery throughout the summer, the only summer I've ever seen it do so around here.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

Tim always scores the precip jackpot.

It has not rained too much here yet today... but its coming down moderately now.   And moving west towards Seattle.

This is not a situation in which my area is favored for more rain than other areas.

[Doinko]

 

[TacomaWaWx]

0.23” so far today…56/52 spread today down to 55 now. Up to 3.55” this month. We’ve picked up 11.13” of rain since april 1st. 

[Phishy Wx]

not a drop over here, earlier this week they were thinking a severe outbreak today, then nada the last couple days

[yellowstone]

Could be worse folks… 

Btw, am I the only one who truly believed the wettest spot on earth was a few minute walk from the valley floor in North Bend?  

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, yellowstone said:

Could be worse folks… 

Btw, am I the only one who truly believed the wettest spot on earth was a few minute walk from the valley floor in North Bend?  

Seattle's annual average in one day lol.

A lot of that comes in the form of thunderstorms, too. An all day lightning storm. At least the biosphere there is equipped for that kind of rainfall.

[Meatyorologist]

The heavy rain is expected to continue into Monday. Absolutely torrential rain.

[MossMan]

3 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Decided to capture the last raindrops of summer/fall 2022 to be solidified in perpetuity.  RIP precipitation.

 

Nice cup! Your wife get you that? 
I just have a boring February snowball in my freezer.

[Anti Marine Layer]

30 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The heavy rain is expected to continue into Monday. Absolutely torrential rain.

It's a holiday weekend for some people. 

[snow_wizard]

54 minutes ago, yellowstone said:

Could be worse folks… 

Btw, am I the only one who truly believed the wettest spot on earth was a few minute walk from the valley floor in North Bend?  

There is some connection between extreme monsoon years in India and big NW winters.  For example the wettest month ever recorded on Earth was 366 inches in July 1861, and the wettest year ever recorded was 1985 with 1000 inches in areas near this location.  Both of those years led to extraordinarily extreme blocking episodes that froze the balls off the NW.  Small sample size obviously, but there is some connection.

Interestingly both years had exceptional summer weather in the NW after June.

[Phil]

Satanic, soul crushing, death inducing heat is everywhere (except Tim’s oasis).

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Satanic, soul crushing, death inducing heat is everywhere (except Tim’s oasis).

 

Paris doesn’t look too bad after tomorrow (later today there). Just a day or so of heat, and still 15 degrees cooler than what we had last June with much quicker and longer lasting relief in sight.

[Cascadia_Wx]

For the Southeastern US, Atlanta looks a little more insufferable in terms of duration. Still child’s play compared to the heat we saw last year, though. Although humidity will probably make it feel just as bad if not worse.