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June 2022 - Summer Begins


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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

12z euro was ready to drop the hammer on us just after it ended ;)

Not really.   Control run looked the same at 240 hours and ended up like this 4 days later...

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_anom-7195200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not really.   Control run looked the same at 240 hours and ended up like this 4 days later...

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_anom-7195200.png

image.gif

Heights rising offshore, fairly deep trough sliding along the coast of AK and BC. In winter this would be an eye catcher. I didn't see the control run myself but I think anyone who's tracked weather here knows this look. These are GIFs that would make Jim quite happy around DJF.

The control run shows one of the many ways it can go wrong but is also probably different in some subtle way which makes it end up the way it does.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not really.   Control run looked the same at 240 hours and ended up like this 4 days later...

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_anom-7195200.png

Actually there were pretty distinct differences w/ the NPAC high.

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Just now, Phil said:

Actually there were pretty distinct differences w/ the NPAC high.

As I figured....

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

image.gif

Heights rising offshore, fairly deep trough sliding along the coast of AK and BC. In winter this would be an eye catcher. I didn't see the control run myself but I think anyone who's tracked weather here knows this look. These are GIFs that would make Jim quite happy around DJF.

The control run shows one of the many ways it can go wrong but is also probably different in some subtle way which makes it end up the way it does.

Likely a moot point... the 00Z run will probably be very different at 240 hours.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Likely a moot point... the 00Z run will probably be very different at 240 hours.

Either way your meet up with patriot front should stay dry. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Salem posted 84

today. 77 here on the hill.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Special Weather Statement

Alert: ...FIRST HEAT WAVE OF THE SEASON EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...

Summer weather is expected to begin in earnest across much of southwest Washington and northwest Oregon this Friday, continuing through the weekend. For inland valleys, temperatures will reach well into the 80s Friday, possibly even reaching the lower 90s in some locations. Further warming will make afternoon temperatures in the 90s more widespread in the inland valleys over the weekend. Offshore flow will bring sunny skies and warm temperatures all the way to the coast, where highs will be in the 70s and 80s this weekend. Gradual cooling begins Monday with inland valleys reaching the upper 80s to low 90s, and coastal locations topping out in the 60s and 70s.

With the hot weather expected, now is a good time to make sure you and your neighbors have a way to deal with the heat. If you have fans or air conditioning, now is a good time to make sure those systems are operating properly.

Given a much-above normal snowpack in the Cascades, rivers are running cold and fast, and will continue to do so this weekend. Nearly every year, people die in rivers in southwest Washington and northwest Oregon due to cold water shock during the season`s first heat wave. Hot temperatures can make the cool water seem tempting, but river temperatures in the 40s and 50s can easily result in cold water shock that can kill in minutes.

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Monday is cooler and the crash is stronger on the 00z.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Going east?  Stabilization of the hill to prevent rock falls.   Goal is to be done by July 4th.  I just take the North Road to get around it.  North Road is off Chumstick in town and parallels highway 2 and you can re-enter highway 2 in Peshastin. 

That’s a more beautiful drive at sunset too. 

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1 minute ago, The Blob said:

Almost 100 pages for this month!

And it all wouldn't have been possible without one specific user!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Hellz ya GFS

gets convective in the LR too, particularly in the mountains

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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13 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

And it all wouldn't have been possible without one specific user!

Very true!   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I wanted to see what the GFS looked like last week for this coming weekend.   This is what it showed just 6 days ago for this coming Saturday at 228 hours.   Second image is what it shows now for the same day.    😀 

gfs_z500a_namer_39 (2).png

gfs_z500a_namer_13.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I wanted to see what the GFS looked like last week for this coming weekend.   This is what it showed just 6 days ago for this coming Saturday.    Second image is what it shows now for the same day.    😀 

gfs_z500a_namer_39 (2).png

gfs_z500a_namer_13.png

image.gif.468a05262f40c2773b7959b40d9a4792.gif

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  • Longtimer
33 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

That’s a more beautiful drive at sunset too. 

Yeah I love the view looking at the mountains in the background, the river and vineyards in the foreground.   Sometimes I take it instead of highway 2 just because of that, and I always take people visiting us that way if they haven't seen it.

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  • Longtimer
6 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Looks like some Chetco River magic went down today with highs of 66 in Gold Beach, 91 in Brookings, and 61 in Crescent City.

Beautiful country down that way. I knew a girl from Brookings once, very strange cautionary tale...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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E0FCFEE6-2B4E-48E9-B8B1-9ADDE0467F32.jpeg

Pretty impressive June cold spell undergoing in Pakistan.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Of course it is happening after a brutally hot boreal Spring.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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31 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Hellz ya GFS

Makes it to D12 before getting drunk on ULLs. That’s progress!

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Makes it to D12 before getting drunk on ULLs. That’s progress!

Wasn't it stuck at like D5-D7 for a good portion of the Spring? That's great progress.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Just now, Phil said:

Almost 2” of rain here this evening.

Tim would be crying in a corner.

I don't think he minds convective activity.

And could you spare some of that lightning for me? Pretty please?

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Just now, Phil said:

Almost 2” of rain here this evening.

Tim would be crying in a corner.

Sure.   You have made that same comment too many times to count when you get heavy rain.   And of course the reality is just the opposite.    That is the best way to get rain... I would be loving it.  🥰

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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27 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I wanted to see what the GFS looked like last week for this coming weekend.   This is what it showed just 6 days ago for this coming Saturday at 228 hours.   Second image is what it shows now for the same day.    😀 

gfs_z500a_namer_39 (2).png

gfs_z500a_namer_13.png

A broken clock is wrong 1438 times per day.

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18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Beautiful country down that way. I knew a girl from Brookings once, very strange cautionary tale...

Might have to get some friends and visit this upcoming fall? Never even been to the redwoods before.

Definitely a narrow strip of coastal conditions though. Ukiah got to 106 and they’re like 25 miles from the ocean. South of Crater Lake the climate/vegetation dichotomy isn’t really so much west vs east side of the Cascades as it is coastal fog belt vs everything else.

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I don't think he minds convective activity.

And could you spare some of that lightning for me? Pretty please?

I’ve got lightning and lightning bugs to spare!

Camera only picked up some of the bugs but you can still see them lighting up in the trees.

 

 

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Just now, Mr Marine Layer said:

And they're still in the mid 90s

 

Such a brutal climate

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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21 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

E0FCFEE6-2B4E-48E9-B8B1-9ADDE0467F32.jpeg

Pretty impressive June cold spell undergoing in Pakistan.

Even if it’s still probably in the 90s in lowland locations, it’s some very welcome relief for them. 
 

The PNW hasn’t exactly been alone with very cold airmasses this year. Back in March it was the eastern Mediterranean basin, Greece Turkey Levant etc. Greece had lowland snow more than once in March, which definitely doesn’t happen every year.

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

Number is surprisingly low.

It’s hard to get down to Eugene since it isn’t part of the PNW. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

I have not been to the north side of Helens where the lateral blast and Harry Truman's cabin was, but I went to the Ape Caves a long time ago as a little kid. Remember having a blast. Might have to go again at some point since it's not that far away.

I have some great memories exploring the Ape Caves in college.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Euro shows the heatwave peaking at 89…think we’ve got a pretty good chance at hitting 90 though. Part of me wants us to avoid 90 to maybe hopefully get our first summer to avoid 90+ since 2011…but also would be cool to get a big swing in temps following the marine push.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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  • Longtimer

Euro just neutered this heatwave.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Sunny start to the day here... should be a spectacular day.

00Z ECMWF showed basically full sunshine through Tuesday... then a marine layer day on Wednesday and back to sun by Thursday afternoon.    Best run of consistent sunshine since last September for sure.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
11 hours ago, MossMan said:

Not Nina related, but what is that construction going on as you are leaving Leavenworth on Hwy 2 up on the hill? 

I realize now you meant the project that I talked about in another post, the coaster project.   It will be called the Leavenworth Adventure Park.   Will be an alpine coaster and will have a climbing wall and a small eatery.

image.png

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