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June 2022 - Summer Begins


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4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

It still look like a fairly short lived heatwave. A 20 degrees crash from Monday to Tuesday for Seattle. 

And interestingly... all of the model show Tuesday being totally sunny as well.   

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Heading up to twisp tonight with the fam my dads getting married up there this weekend. Should be about the same temps wise but the sun always feels more brutal over there. Especially now.

I’ll post some pictures of the campsites we put in…will make a good spot to host the forum meetup 👍👍

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56 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

July and August in 2001 were significantly wetter than normal at SEA.    I would bet money this July and August are drier than normal.  

It takes like one soaking rain to give us an above average month this time of year. Outside of a July 1993 or 83 scenario it isn't even worth worrying about. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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On 6/22/2022 at 3:39 PM, TT-SEA said:

GFS for next Wednesday... summer everywhere on the North American continent and yet somehow winter in western WA and SW BC.    Once again Juneau is way more summery than Seattle.   😀

gfs-deterministic-namer-t2m_f_max6-6547200.png

Big improvement on today's runs for next Wednesday.   Does not look like winter for us now.    Now the new 18Z shows that for the 4th after the first 2 days of the holiday weekend are nice.   It probably change again.   Here is updated map for next Wednesday on the new 18Z GFS...

gfs-deterministic-namer-t2m_f_max6-6547200.png

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12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It takes like one soaking rain to give us an above average month this time of year. Outside of a July 1993 or 83 scenario it isn't even worth worrying about. 

Generally true.   But there are Julys that don't just feature one rain event but many.   Like 2016 and 2019 recently.   

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It sure looks like the switch got flipped this year.  Now the models show 0.1" or less precip over the next 10 days.  Might have a 1984 vibe.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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Just now, Phil said:

I won that bet. ;) 

Yeah... that one is in the bag.

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39 minutes ago, Cloud said:

It still look like a fairly short lived heatwave. A 20 degrees crash from Monday to Tuesday for Seattle. 

Kind of a classic scenario when a warm spell is couched in an overall cold regime.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It sure looks like the switch got flipped this year.  Now the models show 0.1" or less precip over the next 10 days.  Might have a 1984 vibe.

It sure seems like a 1984 flip right now.

But earlier this year when it was dry in early February you said we might have a 1985 situation here and then the faucet turned on and never stopped.   Cedar Lake is already well past their annual total for 1985 this year and it's not even half over!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

GFS is much warmer than its ensemble mean.

As usual.

B9216FAD-854D-4D60-8AB6-D89C8E35F6C7.gif

The GFS operational has a horrible warm bias in the summer since the last upgrade.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It sure seems like a 1984 flip right now.

But earlier this year when it was dry in early February you said we might have a 1985 situation here and then the faucet turned on and never stopped.   Cedar Lake is already well past their annual total for 1985 this year and it's not even half over!

I suppose I was more hoping for a 1985 type regime.  Maybe next year if the progression goes 1984 ish.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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Just for the record... here is the 12Z ECMWF for next Thursday.    Looks like the GFS operational to me.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-6633600.png

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I suppose I was more hoping for a 1985 type regime.  Maybe next year if the progression goes 1984 ish.

That is what I am thinking... maybe now we are starting the 1984-1985 progression.   At least I can hope!  

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just for the record... here is the 12Z ECMWF for next Thursday.    Looks like the GFS operational to me.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-6633600.png

I’m all for it. Got relatives coming up from Cali during this timeframe for the 4th so it’ll be a good opportunity to showcase our perfect summer sunshine around here. 

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22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Generally true.   But there are Julys that don't just feature one rain event but many.   Like 2016 and 2019 recently.   

I'll have to check, we may have gotten a trace those years. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Currently following the 2022 analog VERY closely at my place...

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'll have to check, we may have gotten a trace those years. 

Rained on almost half the days up here both of those years in July.    And then you have years like 2009, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2021 when it rained on maybe 1 or 2 days in July.

July can be more variable up here.  

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  • Longtimer
2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

12AC058F-DC47-4D57-B320-24FA03F6A061.thumb.jpeg.dc0ae076003d5c5f786508d789a921a0.jpeg
Finally had to drag the portable AC out of the closet. We have the special broken wheel edition that requires the leveling book accessory. 

I don’t know why but I immediately thought of this when I looked at the pic. PLEASE tell me your name is Paulie and it’s your birthday…

 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Rained on almost half the days up here both of those years in July.    And then you have years like 2012, 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2021 when it rained on maybe 1 or 2 days in July.

In Portland we had measurable rain 6 days in July 2019 and 0.8" of precip, and 6 days in 2016 with 0.66" of precip (0.5" is normal). I think we must've been on the southern edge of those systems and not had as much rain as places farther north

Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I don’t know why but I immediately thought of this when I looked at the pic. PLEASE tell me your name is Paulie and it’s your birthday…

 

No and no but my birthday is approaching. 

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2 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

In Portland we had measurable rain 6 days in July 2019 and 0.8" of precip, and 6 days in 2016 with 0.66" of precip (0.5" is normal). I think we must've been on the southern edge of those systems and not had as much rain as places farther north

I added to my list of years when it barely rained at all in July.   That is closer to the norm.   But there are years when systems clip WA more frequently and of course my area will get rain with each one that passes by... so I don't take for granted that July is always wall to wall dry.

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12 minutes ago, T-Town said:

12AC058F-DC47-4D57-B320-24FA03F6A061.thumb.jpeg.dc0ae076003d5c5f786508d789a921a0.jpeg
Finally had to drag the portable AC out of the closet. We have the special broken wheel edition that requires the leveling book accessory. 

Likewise lol

from the closet to the window.  Temp for now. Pretty sure I need to drag it out a bit farther for better air flow. 

F279FD30-74D2-451B-9A58-8DE4B4C7C1A7.jpeg

E54135EB-53BE-48EA-B905-BCFA447D0FF6.jpeg

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Cottonwoods are finally done spreading seeds.    Today would be a perfect day for them but there is nothing in the air... big change from Monday.   It took until late June to have enough dry afternoons to finish.  

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  • Longtimer
12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Rained on almost half the days up here both of those years in July.    And then you have years like 2009, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2021 when it rained on maybe 1 or 2 days in July.

July can be more variable up here.  

Last time we had more than 1" in July was 2011. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Cottonwoods are finally done spreading seeds.    Today would be a perfect day for them but there is nothing in the air... big change from Monday.   It took until late June to have enough dry afternoons to finish.  

I'm never done spreading my seed.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm never done spreading my seed.

Your like Phillip rivers with 9 kids over here. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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71 at SEA... the 12Z ECMWF showed 66 today.    Add 5 degrees to what the ECMWF shows most of the time during the summer.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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52 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS operational has a horrible warm bias in the summer since the last upgrade.

Yup.

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Thunderstorm activity just north of Vancouver BC

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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First half of July may be a decent window for a thunderstorm outbreak or two given mean offshore ridge position. Troughs downstream dig early and negatively tilt easier. It means the potential for more heat, but also for better dynamics. Just a thought.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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22 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yup.

GFS surface temp output is either way too warm or way too cold.   People love the cold bias in the winter for arctic dreaming.   It doesn't have a warm bias with the overall patterns... often it's way too aggressive with cold air masses.    

And the 12Z ECMWF was actually warmer than the 18Z GFS for next Thursday with that map you posted.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Severe clear with a 76 / 48 spread today for just about dead-on old-school normal and the very model of SUMMER PERFECTION.

Too bad the 2013-2021 climo average climbs another ~10 degrees in the next month 🙁

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29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS surface temp output is either way too warm or way too cold.   People love the cold bias in the winter for arctic dreaming.   It doesn't have a warm bias with the overall patterns... often it's way too aggressive with cold air masses.    

And the 12Z ECMWF was actually warmer than the 18Z GFS for next Thursday with that map you posted.

It has a warm bias on sunny days.

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16 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Severe clear with a 76 / 48 spread today for just about dead-on old-school normal and the very model of SUMMER PERFECTION.

Too bad the 2013-2021 climo average climbs another ~10 degrees in the next month 🙁

Let's hope we can keep the 90F+ burgers in the QB numbers this season.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

It has a warm bias on sunny days.

For sure... completely opposite of the ECMWF.

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14 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Let's hope we can keep the 90F+ burgers in the QB numbers this season.

Yes but the big question is whether you go retro or contemporary. Warren Moon or Kyler Murray. Rick Mirer or He Who Shall Not Be Named. An anxious public awaits. 

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22 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Let's hope we can keep the 90F+ burgers in the QB numbers this season.

That was a LOT of cheeseburgers. I don't wanna have to dig out my spinning burger gif for another 5 years. ;)

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 43
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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18Z GFS is no doubt too warm for Sunday and Monday... but it was 1 degree too cold for the high today.    What is more interesting is how it's trolling us for the 4th!

gfs-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-6007200.png

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Some 90s do sound nice if we crash hard the day after, along with thunderstorm chances on exit. Thankfully that looks to be the case.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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  • Longtimer

70/45 today. Doesn't get much better than that. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I enjoy making this place less pleasant to read for certain people. After all it's just a weather forum, not an emotional story or a New York Times Bestseller. 

I also see other people making similar comments not always related to weather but the people I annoy don't like to see my name on the posts specifically. 

Yes it will reduce my chances of winning next year's March Madness contest, but it's what I am willing to do to make their day less enjoyable. 

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25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS is no doubt too warm for Sunday and Monday... but it was 1 degree too cold for the high today.    What is more interesting is how it's trolling us for the 4th!

gfs-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-6007200.png

Pesky little flies are trolling me as they tend to come out in the early evening if the day was hot. 

They could ruin our fireworks show on the 4th, but usually they go away after the sun goes down. 

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