June 2022 - Summer Begins

[SilverFallsAndrew]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here are the new ECMWF weeklies.   I picture you scouring the models trying to find a way to make me worry that it will rain all of July and August.    But it will likely be quite nice for most of the next 3 months regardless of what the models show.  

Looks like the heat stays centered over the central US. Probably a modestly above average summer here, which qualifies as cool in this present climate. 

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like the heat stays centered over the central US. Probably a modestly above average summer here, which qualifies as cool in this present climate. 

Agreed.

[TacomaWaWx]

68 and mostly sunny here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

68 and mostly sunny here. 

68 and sunny here as well. 

[TT-SEA]

It was 72 a few minutes ago... 71 now.    Arctic front?

[Phil]

22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like the heat stays centered over the central US. Probably a modestly above average summer here, which qualifies as cool in this present climate. 

I’m more convinced in a cooler than average outcome now that the July/August MJO/GWO cycle has come into better focus.

Something like 2011 or 2001 seems like a good bet.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I’m more convinced in a cooler than average outcome now that the July/August MJO/GWO cycle has come into better focus.

Something like 2011 or 2001 seems like a good bet.

July and August in 2001 were significantly wetter than normal at SEA.    I would bet money this July and August are drier than normal.  

[Cloud]

Got the AC up yesterday after work. I'm glad to see the model (12z GFS) backed off of the extreme heat for early next week. Still quite hot though. Let's see where our drunk uncle wants to take us for this time frame. 

[Omegaraptor]

In a week I’m headed to Sunriver. Can’t wait!

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

July and August in 2001 were significantly wetter than normal at SEA.    I would bet money this July and August are drier than normal.  

I’ll take that bet. Wager $100?

August could be drier than average but July won’t be.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

July and August in 2001 were significantly wetter than normal at SEA.    I would bet money this July and August are drier than normal.  

Most places, yes, but not at Cedar Lake. That place is a real rain magnet.

[Cloud]

Drunk uncle is going back to HOT for Monday. mid-90s for Puget Sound.

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ll take that bet. Wager $100?

August could be drier than average but July won’t be.

Hmmmm... let me think about that.

[Meatyorologist]

6 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

Boomer Tuesday? @Meatyorologist?

 

I've been eyeing that. 18z GFS is more bullish, 12z GEM is fairly on point too.

The setup is typical, though difflusion aloft necessary for elevated convection will be centered too far to the north for a guaranteed outbreak.

My initial guess is that there will be a very nice accas field Monday afternoon into the evening, with storms popping up locally.

Expected environmental profile aloft is generous for any midlevel moisture and its potential CAPE. Fairly steep lapse rates between 900-450mb, steeper than the moist adiabatic curve, and following it above 450mb. If a robust enough midlevel moist layer develops, storms could have an excess of 1000 j/kg to work with... That is significant for this area... But only a potential.

We'll have to wait and see. We'll know more as time progresses.

[Cloud]

It still look like a fairly short lived heatwave. A 20 degrees crash from Monday to Tuesday for Seattle. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

It still look like a fairly short lived heatwave. A 20 degrees crash from Monday to Tuesday for Seattle. 

And interestingly... all of the model show Tuesday being totally sunny as well.   

[RentonHillTC]

Heading up to twisp tonight with the fam my dads getting married up there this weekend. Should be about the same temps wise but the sun always feels more brutal over there. Especially now.

I’ll post some pictures of the campsites we put in…will make a good spot to host the forum meetup

[SilverFallsAndrew]

56 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

July and August in 2001 were significantly wetter than normal at SEA.    I would bet money this July and August are drier than normal.  

It takes like one soaking rain to give us an above average month this time of year. Outside of a July 1993 or 83 scenario it isn't even worth worrying about. 

[TT-SEA]

On 6/22/2022 at 3:39 PM, TT-SEA said:

GFS for next Wednesday... summer everywhere on the North American continent and yet somehow winter in western WA and SW BC.    Once again Juneau is way more summery than Seattle.   

Big improvement on today's runs for next Wednesday.   Does not look like winter for us now.    Now the new 18Z shows that for the 4th after the first 2 days of the holiday weekend are nice.   It probably change again.   Here is updated map for next Wednesday on the new 18Z GFS...

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It takes like one soaking rain to give us an above average month this time of year. Outside of a July 1993 or 83 scenario it isn't even worth worrying about. 

Generally true.   But there are Julys that don't just feature one rain event but many.   Like 2016 and 2019 recently.   

[Mr Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

I’ll take that bet. Wager $100?

August could be drier than average but July won’t be.

You still have your first bet 

[Phil]

GFS is much warmer than its ensemble mean.

As usual.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

You still have your first bet 

I won that bet.  

[snow_wizard]

It sure looks like the switch got flipped this year.  Now the models show 0.1" or less precip over the next 10 days.  Might have a 1984 vibe.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

I won that bet.  

Yeah... that one is in the bag.

[snow_wizard]

39 minutes ago, Cloud said:

It still look like a fairly short lived heatwave. A 20 degrees crash from Monday to Tuesday for Seattle. 

Kind of a classic scenario when a warm spell is couched in an overall cold regime.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It sure looks like the switch got flipped this year.  Now the models show 0.1" or less precip over the next 10 days.  Might have a 1984 vibe.

It sure seems like a 1984 flip right now.

But earlier this year when it was dry in early February you said we might have a 1985 situation here and then the faucet turned on and never stopped.   Cedar Lake is already well past their annual total for 1985 this year and it's not even half over!

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

GFS is much warmer than its ensemble mean.

As usual.

The GFS operational has a horrible warm bias in the summer since the last upgrade.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It sure seems like a 1984 flip right now.

But earlier this year when it was dry in early February you said we might have a 1985 situation here and then the faucet turned on and never stopped.   Cedar Lake is already well past their annual total for 1985 this year and it's not even half over!

I suppose I was more hoping for a 1985 type regime.  Maybe next year if the progression goes 1984 ish.

[TT-SEA]

Just for the record... here is the 12Z ECMWF for next Thursday.    Looks like the GFS operational to me.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I suppose I was more hoping for a 1985 type regime.  Maybe next year if the progression goes 1984 ish.

That is what I am thinking... maybe now we are starting the 1984-1985 progression.   At least I can hope!  

[Mr Marine Layer]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

I won that bet.  

That's good. You should still be able to use the restroom.

[Cloud]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just for the record... here is the 12Z ECMWF for next Thursday.    Looks like the GFS operational to me.

I’m all for it. Got relatives coming up from Cali during this timeframe for the 4th so it’ll be a good opportunity to showcase our perfect summer sunshine around here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Generally true.   But there are Julys that don't just feature one rain event but many.   Like 2016 and 2019 recently.   

I'll have to check, we may have gotten a trace those years. 

[Meatyorologist]

Currently following the 2022 analog VERY closely at my place...

[T-Town]

Finally had to drag the portable AC out of the closet. We have the special broken wheel edition that requires the leveling book accessory. 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'll have to check, we may have gotten a trace those years. 

Rained on almost half the days up here both of those years in July.    And then you have years like 2009, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2021 when it rained on maybe 1 or 2 days in July.

July can be more variable up here.  

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Finally had to drag the portable AC out of the closet. We have the special broken wheel edition that requires the leveling book accessory. 

I don’t know why but I immediately thought of this when I looked at the pic. PLEASE tell me your name is Paulie and it’s your birthday…

 

[Doiinko]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Rained on almost half the days up here both of those years in July.    And then you have years like 2012, 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2021 when it rained on maybe 1 or 2 days in July.

In Portland we had measurable rain 6 days in July 2019 and 0.8" of precip, and 6 days in 2016 with 0.66" of precip (0.5" is normal). I think we must've been on the southern edge of those systems and not had as much rain as places farther north

[T-Town]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I don’t know why but I immediately thought of this when I looked at the pic. PLEASE tell me your name is Paulie and it’s your birthday…

 

No and no but my birthday is approaching. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

In Portland we had measurable rain 6 days in July 2019 and 0.8" of precip, and 6 days in 2016 with 0.66" of precip (0.5" is normal). I think we must've been on the southern edge of those systems and not had as much rain as places farther north

I added to my list of years when it barely rained at all in July.   That is closer to the norm.   But there are years when systems clip WA more frequently and of course my area will get rain with each one that passes by... so I don't take for granted that July is always wall to wall dry.

[Cloud]

12 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Finally had to drag the portable AC out of the closet. We have the special broken wheel edition that requires the leveling book accessory. 

Likewise lol

from the closet to the window.  Temp for now. Pretty sure I need to drag it out a bit farther for better air flow. 

[TT-SEA]

Cottonwoods are finally done spreading seeds.    Today would be a perfect day for them but there is nothing in the air... big change from Monday.   It took until late June to have enough dry afternoons to finish.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Rained on almost half the days up here both of those years in July.    And then you have years like 2009, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2021 when it rained on maybe 1 or 2 days in July.

July can be more variable up here.  

Last time we had more than 1" in July was 2011. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Cottonwoods are finally done spreading seeds.    Today would be a perfect day for them but there is nothing in the air... big change from Monday.   It took until late June to have enough dry afternoons to finish.  

I'm never done spreading my seed.

[TacomaWaWx]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm never done spreading my seed.

Your like Phillip rivers with 9 kids over here. 

[TacomaWaWx]

69/50 today down to 67 now perfect summer day. 

[TT-SEA]

71 at SEA... the 12Z ECMWF showed 66 today.    Add 5 degrees to what the ECMWF shows most of the time during the summer.

[Phil]

52 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS operational has a horrible warm bias in the summer since the last upgrade.

Yup.

[Meatyorologist]

Thunderstorm activity just north of Vancouver BC