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June 2022 - Summer Begins


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First half of July may be a decent window for a thunderstorm outbreak or two given mean offshore ridge position. Troughs downstream dig early and negatively tilt easier. It means the potential for more heat, but also for better dynamics. Just a thought.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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22 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yup.

GFS surface temp output is either way too warm or way too cold.   People love the cold bias in the winter for arctic dreaming.   It doesn't have a warm bias with the overall patterns... often it's way too aggressive with cold air masses.    

And the 12Z ECMWF was actually warmer than the 18Z GFS for next Thursday with that map you posted.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Severe clear with a 76 / 48 spread today for just about dead-on old-school normal and the very model of SUMMER PERFECTION.

Too bad the 2013-2021 climo average climbs another ~10 degrees in the next month 🙁

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29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS surface temp output is either way too warm or way too cold.   People love the cold bias in the winter for arctic dreaming.   It doesn't have a warm bias with the overall patterns... often it's way too aggressive with cold air masses.    

And the 12Z ECMWF was actually warmer than the 18Z GFS for next Thursday with that map you posted.

It has a warm bias on sunny days.

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16 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Severe clear with a 76 / 48 spread today for just about dead-on old-school normal and the very model of SUMMER PERFECTION.

Too bad the 2013-2021 climo average climbs another ~10 degrees in the next month 🙁

Let's hope we can keep the 90F+ burgers in the QB numbers this season.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

It has a warm bias on sunny days.

For sure... completely opposite of the ECMWF.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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14 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Let's hope we can keep the 90F+ burgers in the QB numbers this season.

Yes but the big question is whether you go retro or contemporary. Warren Moon or Kyler Murray. Rick Mirer or He Who Shall Not Be Named. An anxious public awaits. 

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22 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Let's hope we can keep the 90F+ burgers in the QB numbers this season.

That was a LOT of cheeseburgers. I don't wanna have to dig out my spinning burger gif for another 5 years. ;)

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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18Z GFS is no doubt too warm for Sunday and Monday... but it was 1 degree too cold for the high today.    What is more interesting is how it's trolling us for the 4th!

gfs-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-6007200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Some 90s do sound nice if we crash hard the day after, along with thunderstorm chances on exit. Thankfully that looks to be the case.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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  • Longtimer

70/45 today. Doesn't get much better than that. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I enjoy making this place less pleasant to read for certain people. After all it's just a weather forum, not an emotional story or a New York Times Bestseller. 

I also see other people making similar comments not always related to weather but the people I annoy don't like to see my name on the posts specifically. 

Yes it will reduce my chances of winning next year's March Madness contest, but it's what I am willing to do to make their day less enjoyable. 

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25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS is no doubt too warm for Sunday and Monday... but it was 1 degree too cold for the high today.    What is more interesting is how it's trolling us for the 4th!

gfs-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-6007200.png

Pesky little flies are trolling me as they tend to come out in the early evening if the day was hot. 

They could ruin our fireworks show on the 4th, but usually they go away after the sun goes down. 

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1 hour ago, T-Town said:

Yes but the big question is whether you go retro or contemporary. Warren Moon or Kyler Murray. Rick Mirer or He Who Shall Not Be Named. An anxious public awaits. 

Nah, I'll just use active players.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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On 6/21/2022 at 4:47 PM, TT-SEA said:

We already have reservations in Couer D'Alene.   Always a good a idea to hedge your bets.   Summer is short.  

We just got back from Sandpoint. Literal paradise weather for the 3 days we were there. 75+ every day, perfect beach weather. Mountains still had a smidge of snow on them too. Great juxtaposition that made for some really nice pics!

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  • Longtimer

Sofi out chasing the dog and sheep. I gave the sheep it’s annual horrible haircut today. We are ready for the heat now. 

96468756-FF40-4520-88D3-99129FA04C3E.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Windy! Currently 60. 
Had a high of 69, low of 43.

Tried pulling my A/C unit out of the mechanical room space to put in my living room as well but it was too heavy. 

Oh and I mowed. 

5BDFD6A5-5114-44D0-80C2-484883FC6CE2.jpeg

6BAEFE7B-AC18-4AEC-9103-C9BF1401A666.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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5 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

We just got back from Sandpoint. Literal paradise weather for the 3 days we were there. 75+ every day, perfect beach weather. Mountains still had a smidge of snow on them too. Great juxtaposition that made for some really nice pics!

I love Sandpoint.   

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I love Sandpoint.   

That’s my perfect climate. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not sure Mark Nelsen's 98 for Sunday is going to happen. He admitted on air last night, that was about as high as it would probably get on Sunday. Guessing he'll knock a few degrees off that this evening. 

I don't know, the NWS is also forecasting 98 degrees, and they even mentioned a 25% chance of hitting 100 on their Twitter. Mark also mentioned a chance of possibly even hitting 100 on Sunday as well. The Portland area seems to be the warmest area in the valley.

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10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Windy! Currently 60. 
Had a high of 69, low of 43.

Tried pulling my A/C unit out of the mechanical room space to put in my living room as well but it was too heavy. 

Oh and I mowed. 

5BDFD6A5-5114-44D0-80C2-484883FC6CE2.jpeg

6BAEFE7B-AC18-4AEC-9103-C9BF1401A666.jpeg

Too bad. Would make a nice coffee table. 

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5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

It is a very very good climate. Something like https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portola,_California#Climate is probably my ideal.

That is pretty nice. I actually really like the climate here in the Cascade Foothills. We are in the midst of one of the most enjoyable long stretches we have had since I have lived here. I really enjoyed fall 2011 through summer 2012, Fall 2016 through Spring 2017 and from about October to present has been very nice by my standards. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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59 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Pesky little flies are trolling me as they tend to come out in the early evening if the day was hot. 

They could ruin our fireworks show on the 4th, but usually they go away after the sun goes down. 

The county we live in banned all fireworks this year.  Me bets a lot of people will thumb their nose at that.  

They even banned the fireworks for little kids.  Just sickening.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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3 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

69/50 today down to 67 now perfect summer day. 

Pretty nice to have a sub 70 high with wall to wall sunshine this time of year.  Tonight has a shot at being pretty chilly in a lot of places.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The county we live in banned all fireworks this year.  Me bets a lot of people will thumb their nose at that.  

They even banned the fireworks for little kids.  Just sickening.

We had lots of people shooting them when Newsom banned them in 2020. Some were high up like the professional ones. 

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38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I love Sandpoint.   

Same.  Wife was big mad that we were coming back. I think she wants us to move there (could be a feeling, or could be the 15 times she said it lol)

Dry, warm, pleasant summers...gorgeous winters...sandy beaches and a ski resort 5 minutes away. Who could say no to that?

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15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The county we live in banned all fireworks this year.  Me bets a lot of people will thumb their nose at that.  

They even banned the fireworks for little kids.  Just sickening.

Yeah... if everyone is doing it then there isn't much they can do.  Hopefully that is the case.  And not to get political... but the Seattle police don't respond to assault calls now so one would assume they won't have the resources to track down people enjoying the 4th in their own yard.  So at least there it won't be an issue.

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3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It is encouraging to see that the 12z Euro operational was a big outlier in the 6-10 day range, though.

D4624F84-6658-4F9C-A513-31FB3B45EDDA.png

18z GFS too. Lots of outlier operational runs today.

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21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The county we live in banned all fireworks this year.  Me bets a lot of people will thumb their nose at that.  

They even banned the fireworks for little kids.  Just sickening.

Some areas throw the ban hammer if they believe people will be reckless around the 4th. Around here, it probably has no relevance to what the weather has been like. We get rain in the summer.

Huntington will fine people for using most types of fireworks. So far it looks like Ashland is looser on this, but who knows we probably pull some last second shinanigans. 

It should go without saying, exercise caution when around fireworks.. And if you're aiming a mortar at a tree, well that's your fault and shouldn't own fireworks in the first place. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Tonight could be the coolest night of this month for many places. Clear and chilly, lows in the mid 40s around KSEA and some scattered upper 30s in outlying valleys.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Tonight could be the coolest night of this month for many places. Clear and chilly, lows in the mid 40s around KSEA and some scattered upper 30s in outlying valleys.

We will see what happens here tonight we got down to 47 on 6/15 so it might be tough at my location…sure it’s a different story for most spots. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That’s my perfect climate. 

Of course, I had to look at the climate stats for there. Does look really nice. Surprised to see average snowfall only at 70" with 32" of yearly precip though.

Screen Shot 2022-06-23 at 9.49.24 PM.png

Highs are similar compared to Bozeman but of course our nighttime temps are a lot colder here. Quite a bit drier here yet a lot snowier. Also, I brought this up a while ago, but it's funny to see it on Wiki now. "Unlike most of the country, Bozeman has actually gotten cooler with the new 1991-2020 normals. Average highs dropped by 1.3°F (0.72°C), especially in spring and summer. It has also gotten wetter and snowier."

Screen Shot 2022-06-23 at 9.49.37 PM.png

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Thunderstorm dynamics are improved on the 00z for Monday night. Things are getting interesting.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Sounds like almost all of us think today was beautiful.   And most of us agree that a 75-degree summer day is heavenly.   Why so much arguing?  😀

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Thunderstorm dynamics are improved on the 00z for Monday night. Things are getting interesting.

GFS looks goofy... shows thunderstorms on Monday evening in Seattle and cloud maps show clear skies at the same time. 

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I like that the crash day on Tuesday is sunny and in the low to mid 70s... much better than a thick marine layer and drizzle and 58.  

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS looks goofy... shows thunderstorms on Monday evening in Seattle and cloud maps show clear skies at the same time. 

All global scale models use some sort of wonky convective emulation technique, since they technically do not 'model' convection. That emulation does a fairly good job with convective coverage, even if no clouds are rendered per-se.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

I like that the crash day on Tuesday is sunny and in the low to mid 70s... much better than a thick marine layer and drizzle and 58.  

Would be pretty wild to go from 90s and blazing sun to 50s and drizzle. I'm not sure that has ever happened at KSEA... Will have to look at that manually.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

All global scale models use some sort of wonky convective emulation technique, since they technically do not 'model' convection. That emulation does a fairly good job with convective coverage, even if no clouds are rendered per-se.

Yeah... the precip maps are meaningful.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Would be pretty wild to go from 90s and blazing sun to 50s and drizzle. I'm not sure that has ever happened at KSEA... Will have to look at that manually.

But often we are socked in the day after the crash as the marine layer come roaring in... apparently won't be the case this time.   The ECMWF shows sunny conditions on Tuesday as well. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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GFS is a little deeper with that stationary ULL later next week.  Still would be dry for the Seattle area for the holiday weekend and fairly sunny at least on Saturday and Sunday with the center of the low to the west... but not as warm.     And it still shows a marine layer day on the 4th like its 18Z run.  This run shows 75, 73, 73 at SEA for the 3 day weekend.   We will see if the ECMWF goes in that direction.    Probably won't really know how these ULLs will play out for another few days until it gets inside of a week.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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One more observation on the GFS... it has  become much more progressive with the ULL that breaks down the warm spell over the last couple of days   As Phil was predicting when threatened to dismember himself.  😀

It seems like it corrects its ULL issues once it gets within a week.   The more progressive solution means Wednesday-Friday of next week are trending warmer and sunnier than once shown.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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39 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Would be pretty wild to go from 90s and blazing sun to 50s and drizzle. I'm not sure that has ever happened at KSEA... Will have to look at that manually.

I believe this happened in Late June/July of 1996. Maybe not a 40+F drop but D**n close.

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