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June 2022 - Summer Begins


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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

One more observation on the GFS... it has  become much more progressive with the ULL that breaks down the warm spell over the last couple of days   As Phil was predicting when threatened to dismember himself.  😀

It seems like it corrects its ULL issues once it gets within a week.   The more progressive solution means Wednesday-Friday of next week are trending warmer and sunnier than once shown.   

That’s the one good thing about the GFS biases. They’re very predictable and it’s *very* easy to see when it’s happening. Where-as the Euro/CMC can be wrong but it can be in any direction, and thus it’s difficult for me to sniff it out sometimes.

This recent example was so clear it stung my eyes to look at. I wouldn’t make a bet like that if I wasn’t 100% certain of the outcome. :lol: 

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56 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Thunderstorm dynamics are improved on the 00z for Monday night. Things are getting interesting.

I hope we get some great regionwide thunderstorms!
September 2019 was really great in my location at least (and I think the Puget Sound as well). On the 8th a tornado was reported just a few miles away from me, and on the 9th, a station near me picked up 1.88 inches of rain in an hour, and 2.17 inches in total. There was also constant lightning with that storm.

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 8-10"

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17 minutes ago, JBolin said:

I believe this happened in Late June/July of 1996. Maybe not a 40+F drop but D**n close.

I mean we didn’t go to drizzle and 50s last June but we did go from 106 to 68 in about 6 hours. That was pretty wild…38 degree swing. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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FWIW... the 00Z GEM is warmer and drier late next week and weekend than its 12Z run.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Did some research on large one-day crashes. Criteria concerns high temps, and goes as follows: at coolest 90s the first day, and at warmest 60s the day after. There are no seasonal exclusions, any two day period which fits this criteria counts. Here are the days I dug up, alongside daily precip:

May:

5/21-5/22, 1963: 93°F to 67°F // 0.00" to 0.00"

5/31-6/1, 1964: 90°F to 63°F // Trace to 0.08"

5/23-5/24, 1969: 90°F to 67°F // 0.02" to 0.17"

June:

6/13-6/14, 1986: 90°F to 65°F // 0.00" to 0.14"

6/13-6/14, 2002: 94°F to 68°F // 0.00" to Trace

6/4-6/5, 2009: 91°F to 68°F // Trace to 0.00"

July:

7/22-7/23, 1959: 92°F to 68°F // 0.00" to 0.06"

7/29-7/30, 1960: 94°F to 67°F // 0.00" to 0.00"

August:

8/4-8/5, 1952: 92°F to 68°F // 0.00" to 0.00"

8/1-8/2, 1965: 90°F to 66°F // 0.00" to 0.02"

Honorable Mention:

7/23-7/24, 1991: 99°F to 70°F // 0.00" to 0.28"

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Was curious to go back and look at the June 2021 thread but it’s gone apparently along with several other months with interesting weather. What happened to them? 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Was curious to go back and look at the June 2021 thread but it’s gone apparently along with several other months with interesting weather. What happened to them? 

I was looking for that the other day as well... no idea. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The GFS is also quite a bit colder the 00Z GEFS mean for next weekend... flipping it around from the 12Z runs.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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27 minutes ago, JBolin said:

I believe this happened in Late June/July of 1996. Maybe not a 40+F drop but D**n close.

I know what you are talking about and I was pretty surprised when I saw it too. It wasn't a one day drop, but rather a massive pattern change in mid July 1996. Went from 91F on the 14th to 59F on the 17th, one of the few July days with a high in the 50s. To have it happen four days after a 90 degree heatwave is pretty remarkable.

Interestingly, both days are at least 12F departed from their daily normals... In the opposite directions!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was looking for that the other day as well... no idea. 

Yeah there’s several months missing over the last 3 years. Another one I was curious to look back at was September 2020 but it’s also nowhere to be found. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Already in the 40’s! Brrr. 

D*mn still 60 here. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Already in the 40’s! Brrr. 

Wow! That's really early. Might legitimately have to watch for frost in your area.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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I think it says a lot that these next few weeks with forcing that favors a “warm” pattern aren’t producing an insanely warm result.

In any of the 2013-2021 years, we’d be staring down the barrel of a nuclear heatwave right now. But not this year!

When the next -dAAMt/E-Hem MJO gets going later in July there could be some impressive cool anomalies if things continue as they have.

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One reason I wanted to look back at September 2020 was the absolute freak of nature east wind event on Labor Day. I know it led to major destruction that personally affected a few of us on the forum but the wind event itself was pretty wild. One of the most extreme weather events I’ve ever witnessed. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

One reason I wanted to look back at September 2020 was the absolute freak of nature east wind event on Labor Day. I know it led to major destruction that personally affected a few of us on the forum but the wind event itself was pretty wild. One of the most extreme weather events I’ve ever witnessed. 

And then not even a year later, temps in the mid 110s west of the Cascades. Those two events feel like the final acts of a penultimate decade of excessive torching; the final two parting gifts. Neither feel real.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

And then not even a year later, temps in the mid 110s west of the Cascades. Those two events feel like the final acts of a penultimate decade of excessive torching; the final two parting gifts. Neither feel real.

Yeah they were both very extreme weather events. We had wind gusts here 55+ mph straight out of the stampede gap that night…with waves of 4-5 feet here in commencement bay. They were bringing in cranes from the port of Seattle into Tacoma and one of the cranes washed right into Katie downs here on the waterfront that night. Quite a few docks on the west side of the bay broke that evening. 

35B8CBFD-E109-4091-B64C-521E53AC400C.jpeg

CC450CF3-F021-40A1-B062-94B831C5260F.jpeg

8655B65D-4439-46CF-B60E-4483190F15B1.jpeg

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Hard to believe a heatwave is coming for this weekend and early next week when it felt a bit chilly with the winds near the water this evening. Was over in West Seattle before sunset and it felt as such with dark clouds overhead. 

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Pretty crazy crash early Monday evening.  Some indicators show major instability during the transition, but moisture looks limited.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Cloud said:

So 00z GFS is going even hotter for Monday for Seattle/Renton/Kent areas. This is probably the hottest run yet with a 97. 

Lets just hope it’s running too warm. Lol

If it's anything like last summer it's too high.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty crazy crash early Monday evening.  Some indicators show major instability during the transition, but moisture looks limited.

Im definitely interested to be outside and experience this quick crash. I think it’ll feel quite good after the heat 

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17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty crazy crash early Monday evening.  Some indicators show major instability during the transition, but moisture looks limited.

Global scale models can underdo moisture, but it does generally seem lower than ideal.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

One reason I wanted to look back at September 2020 was the absolute freak of nature east wind event on Labor Day. I know it led to major destruction that personally affected a few of us on the forum but the wind event itself was pretty wild. One of the most extreme weather events I’ve ever witnessed. 

That one was insane.  A dry Candian cold front whipped up the winds and parched the atmosphere and then the smoke from hell.  The two cold days that were caused by the smoke (following a couple of low 90s) were just as freaky as the out of season east wind IMO.

That event was made even more memorable for me as I was ravaged by a really bad urinary tract infection that made me sicker than a dog during all of that.  2020 was simply a year from hell.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty crazy crash early Monday evening.  Some indicators show major instability during the transition, but moisture looks limited.

If I can manage just .32" of precip, I break 10" for the month. Might as well hope a cloud parks on top of me next week!

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Euro is set to make the 4th of July extra cool and wet.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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3 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

One reason I wanted to look back at September 2020 was the absolute freak of nature east wind event on Labor Day. I know it led to major destruction that personally affected a few of us on the forum but the wind event itself was pretty wild. One of the most extreme weather events I’ve ever witnessed. 

Freakish east winds and wildfires in September, a damaging ice storm the following February, a heat wave from hell just four months later that smashed every record in the book, and even a rare April snowstorm for some less than a year after. 2020-2022 has been a strange stretch of some genuinely freak events. (Still, I don't think anything can top the heatwave)

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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It's Friday now... You know what that means!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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image.png

Massive improvement for convection Monday evening on the 06z.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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  • Longtimer
6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

If it's anything like last summer it's too high.

I can still remember when it was spitting out those ridiculous readings in the 110s at this time last year. Obviously impossible west of the Cascades. Good thing that never verified!

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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06Z GFS is even more impressive with the crash... also improved for the holiday weekend.

gfs-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-6050400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
7 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

One reason I wanted to look back at September 2020 was the absolute freak of nature east wind event on Labor Day. I know it led to major destruction that personally affected a few of us on the forum but the wind event itself was pretty wild. One of the most extreme weather events I’ve ever witnessed. 

That arctic cold front was what led to the 2nd earliest snow in Denver and record cold.  Temps went from the mid 90s Monday to snowfall Tuesday morning 

https://www.weather.gov/bou/Sept2020EarlySnow

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4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

That arctic cold front was what led to the 2nd earliest snow in Denver and record cold.  Temps went from the mid 90s Monday to snowfall Tuesday morning 

https://www.weather.gov/bou/Sept2020EarlySnow

These pics should permanently debunk the "ground is too warm" theory for accumulating snow.  101 degrees a couple days earlier to this...

DSRC_Sign.jpg

Ruler.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I can still remember when it was spitting out those ridiculous readings in the 110s at this time last year. Obviously impossible west of the Cascades. Good thing that never verified!

It was actually spitting out some 120's west of the Cascades.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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  • Longtimer

45 this morning. Refreshing.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Had a low of 44. Currently 49 and sunny. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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  • Longtimer

Severe clear and 50 now. Ensemble means continue to look spectacular. I have no issues with normal summer weather.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It was actually spitting out some 120's west of the Cascades.

At one point it had 131F at Redding and 127F for Sacramento. Crazy to think if the ridge had setup more south like it originally showed it may have happened. 

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10 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

One reason I wanted to look back at September 2020 was the absolute freak of nature east wind event on Labor Day. I know it led to major destruction that personally affected a few of us on the forum but the wind event itself was pretty wild. One of the most extreme weather events I’ve ever witnessed. 

San Francisco had orange skies

image.png.a82fe5b1da8b1aab3688ebfdf97d0c6a.png

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SEVERE clear and a low of 50 this morning…was hoping for 40s but maybe next month lol. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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We will see if we can hit 90 here Sunday or Monday…gonna be a close call. Should be somewhere between 88 and 91 on both days. Either way a 10-15 degrees cooler than late June last year which is still mind boggling. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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  • Longtimer

Drop dead gorgeous morning out there. HOLY SHEET. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12Z GFS shifting everything farther west later next week into the weekend.    That huge trough north of the Great Lakes has been shifting west with each run lately... which in turns blocks the downstream progression a little bit more.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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