June 2022 - Summer Begins

[BLI snowman]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Unfortunate our nightmare summer has to come at some point. 
 

It’s like death. You know it’s coming, but you are never completely prepared.

Currently raining and 47.

This late June stretch of the calendar seems pretty insidious and psychopathic. 

I vote that we ban June 27 and June 28. Permanently.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Yeah, the models look the most discouraging they have in a couple months. I guess we all knew the good times couldn’t last forever.

Cloudy and 53 after a low of 51 this morning. Could theoretically be our last sub-70 day until September. I’m going to soak it in.

[The Swamp]

Never fear the ECMWF comes to the rescue around the 29th.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

yeah, but that's the GFS

True.  Can never trust that model or its underdispersed ensemble mean.

Also the Canadian historically has had problems with Indo-Pacific MJO waves, so I’d expect that model to perform poorly as well.

Am giving the Euro/EPS extra weight for this pattern.

[The Swamp]

Just now, Phil said:

True.  Can never trust that model or its underdispersed ensemble mean.

Also the Canadian historically has had problems with Indo-Pacific MJO waves, so I’d expect that model to perform poorly as well.

Am giving the Euro/EPS extra weight for this pattern.

We may have a few nice days but me thinks around the 29th that low just sits over Oregon and probably gives us more clouds and gray while the rest of the country basks in glorious summer weather.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

This late June stretch of the calendar seems pretty insidious and psychopathic. 

I vote that we ban June 27 and June 28. Permanently.

Late June and early August seem to be our sweet spot for heat the past 15 years. 

[Meatyorologist]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

True.  Can never trust that model or its underdispersed ensemble mean.

Also the Canadian historically has had problems with Indo-Pacific MJO waves, so I’d expect that model to perform poorly as well.

Am giving the Euro/EPS extra weight for this pattern.

The worst part about these +TNH patterns ks that the troughs are weak and rarely become negatively tilted. All the torching, barely any relief, and no thunderstorms to boot.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

The worst part about these +TNH patterns ks that the troughs are weak and rarely become negatively tilted. All the torching, barely any relief, and no thunderstorms to boot.

Would be great to see some thunderstormy patterns this summer. I always like the ones that are triggered by/precede a massive marine push.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Crazy to think that with all the bellyaching lately we will probably end up with just a below average April/May when all is said and done. June is starting to look like a lock for warmer than average.

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yeah, the models look the most discouraging they have in a couple months. I guess we all knew the good times couldn’t last forever.

Cloudy and 53 after a low of 51 this morning. Could theoretically be our last sub-70 day until September. I’m going to soak it in.

It does look like a warm default to me with +dAAMt until mid-July. But this has been advertised by ensemble means for awhile now, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise.

The low pass/background state that has produced this cool spring/early summer is actually partly responsible for this pattern change. AAM was/is historically low for the date, so consider the starting point.

That will recover by mid-July ahead of the next IO MJO/-dAAMT. Which will help flip the pattern back to -PNA/troughy (with the help of seasonal dynamics/climatology).

[T-Town]

Some sun breaks here and up to 62. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Crazy to think that with all the bellyaching lately we will probably end up with just a below average April/May when all is said and done. June is starting to look like a lock for warmer than average.

You know the ridiculously persistent gloom is the issue for most people right now.    

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

It does look like a warm default to me with +dAAMt until mid-July. But this has been advertised by ensemble means for awhile now, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise.

The low pass/background state that has produced this cool spring/early summer is actually partly responsible for this pattern change. AAM was/is historically low for the date, so consider the starting point.

That will recover by mid-July ahead of the next IO MJO/-dAAMT. Which will help flip the pattern back to -PNA/troughy (with the help of seasonal dynamics/climatology).

Going into a troughing pattern in late July is like hoping to go into a pattern with nice low level cold inversions in early March. It can happen sometimes but it’s rare and almost never impactful.

[SnowWillarrive]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You know the ridiculously persistent gloom is the issue for most people right now.    

You think it will clear up today later? 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

You think it will clear up today later? 

A little bit.   Closer to the water is better. 

[Timmy Supercell]

2017 was packed with lots of diverse wx events, from the snow to the thunderstorms. 

6/19/2017 in Klamath Falls. After sunset there was a light show for a couple hours. Started out with anvils and mammatus spreading across the southeast sky during a toasty afternoon. 

[GHweatherChris]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You know the ridiculously persistent gloom is the issue for most people right now.    

What persistent gloom?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yesterday was mostly dry until late afternoon. Today the exact opposite. Been busy squeezing out the last precious drops. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS and it's ensembles are certainly not a worst case scenario. Also interesting to note if we do float into some warm weather. I'm fine with a couple days of heat as long as it crashes harder the crypto afterward. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

BTW the first week of July 2011 was also fairly warm. 3 of the first 6 days of the month were 85+ at SLE peaking with a 90 on the 6th. Nice crash with a high of only 72 on the 7th though. Salem hit 90 twice that month, by late July their daily averages now peak around 85, so it's almost certain they will see at least a couple 90s in the next month.

[T-Town]

34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

A little bit.   Closer to the water is better. 

Sun is out here. 

[Deweydog]

Have a great day, dads!!!

Way to fertilize!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at June 2011 and 12, the last two really cool June's we had, their average highs were similar, even warmer to what we have seen at this point, but the overnight lows were a lot cooler. SLE hit 38 on 6/10/12. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

BTW the first week of July 2011 was also fairly warm. 3 of the first 6 days of the month were 85+ at SLE peaking with a 90 on the 6th. Nice crash with a high of only 72 on the 7th though. Salem hit 90 twice that month, by late July their daily averages now peak around 85, so it's almost certain they will see at least a couple 90s in the next month.

No. 90-less July incoming  

[Anti Marine Layer]

I'd rather have highs in the 80s with torrential downpours some days from afternoon thunderstorms than highs in the 60s most days with overcast skies and occasional drizzle or no rain at all.

You don't have to freeze to keep things nice and green.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

No. 90-less July incoming  

PDX only got up to 87 in July 2011. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WE DID IT! 0.30" on the day, 8.00" for June!!!

Update: 90.13" on the water year. 

Edited June 19, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Omegaraptor]

Doesn’t get much better than this!

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF looks more ridgy and warmer for the weekend but still gets to the ULL scenario by day 9 in a totally different way.   That usually means it's destined to happen.    Still... we should be set for a totally sunny and warm weekend which will be such a treat. 

[Timmy Supercell]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

PDX only got up to 87 in July 2011. 

That was my overall coolest July between 2011-2021, though I was surprised I had no highs cooler than 69 that month. 

I hate to bring up 2016 again, but that high of 61 on 7/10/2016 

[Phil]

36 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

BTW the first week of July 2011 was also fairly warm. 3 of the first 6 days of the month were 85+ at SLE peaking with a 90 on the 6th. Nice crash with a high of only 72 on the 7th though. Salem hit 90 twice that month, by late July their daily averages now peak around 85, so it's almost certain they will see at least a couple 90s in the next month.

That 2011 analog has been fantastic with MJO timing. And the background state was similar enough that the pattern changes are roughly aligned.

Obviously some differences, the niña is definitely stronger this year, and annular mode is more positive. But other than that, it’s about as good as match as you can hope for in this day and age.

[T-Town]

21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF looks more ridgy and warmer for the weekend but still gets to the ULL scenario by day 9 in a totally different way.   That usually means it's destined to happen.    Still... we should be set for a totally sunny and warm weekend which will be such a treat. 

I put out the loungers and sun umbrellas just now, which should clinch a return to cooler weather. 

[Omegaraptor]

44 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

That was my overall coolest July between 2011-2021, though I was surprised I had no highs cooler than 69 that month. 

I hate to bring up 2016 again, but that high of 61 on 7/10/2016 

Yeah the summer weather there is generally quite consistent. IMO your old area has some of the best summer weather in the world. It really doesn't get any better.

[TacomaWaWx]

Very nice day 64 and partly sunny. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Euro has a couple days in the upper 70s-low 80s in western WA but then cools down at the end with some precipitation chances to finish the month. Not bad! 

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Euro has a couple days in the upper 70s-low 80s in western WA but then cools down at the end with some precipitation chances to finish the month. Not bad! 

EPS also looks better by D10-15.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Very nice day 64 and partly sunny. 

Looks like our averages for the month so far are 62.6/47.3. Good for about a -1.5 departure month to date. Highs about 4 degrees below average, the lows about a degree or so above average due to all the cloud cover. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

16 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Euro has a couple days in the upper 70s-low 80s in western WA but then cools down at the end with some precipitation chances to finish the month. Not bad! 

Sounds pleasant. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

This guy got lost here looking for some sunny weather. Can you guide him?

[TT-SEA]

27 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Very nice day 64 and partly sunny. 

Tacoma donut hole... most places are cloudy.