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July 2022 Observations and Discussions


Clinton

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My family was going to have a large get together tonight with some ribs and fireworks, we will gladly push it back a night.  My father in-laws corn was beginning to curl (which is what corn does to protect itself from the heat when it's dry) he is thrilled I'm sure.  Another week without rain and it would have been in big trouble.  The Ozarks should get plenty of heat and sunshine Sunday and Monday, I'll be down there next weekend when it's not quite so crazy lol.

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

What a way to break a dry pattern, big boomers have rolled through here overnight and are continuing this morning.  A nice storm train through mby, so far 1.8 inches have fallen which makes this the wettest storm of the year for me and more still to come.

You must live farther south than I thought.  The map shows Warrensburg on highway 50, but this morning's heavy rain has fallen south of the town.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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07/02/2022

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 86/60 there was no rain fall and with a lot of clouds only 34% of sunshine.  The overnight low in MBY was 57 and at the current time it is clear and 65. For today the average H/L is 83/62 the record high of 98 was in 1910 and the record low of 43 was in 2001. The nest few days look to be very typical summer type weather with a good amount of sunshine and hit and miss showers and thunderstorms.

 

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1 minute ago, Hawkeye said:

You must live farther south than I thought.  The map shows Warrensburg on highway 50, but this morning's heavy rain has fallen south of the town.

Yes I'm about 10 miles south of Warrensburg and 20 miles north of Clinton.  I see the NE corner of my county hasn't done as well.

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Another thunderstorm rolling in. Since 11pm this is like the 6th cell if you count all the individual little ones coming into the county. Mostly garden variety but still. 

Got dark outside, looks about 8:40pm and not 9am. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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30 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I'm up to 2.5 inches and rain still falling.  @mlgamerhow much did you get?  I'm seeing reports of 4 inches just south of Topeka.  For what it's worth the 3km NAM was the closes for my area in predicting amounts and the FV3 did sorta ok.

I'm sitting at 1" this morning and still raining. I've had a nice steady soaking rain for the most part. Missed out on the heavier totals to the south and west (reminds me of most winters..lol).

I bet that 2.5" sure is welcome after that bone dry June you had...

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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Finally caught a close one on video. The flash was a lot brighter than how it was captured (kinda behind where I aimed this). 

 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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17 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

I'm sitting at 1" this morning and still raining. I've had a nice steady soaking rain for the most part. Missed out on the heavier totals to the south and west (reminds me of most winters..lol).

I bet that 2.5" sure is welcome after that bone dry June you had...

It sure is.  I knew this pattern was nothing like 2012 but watching everything go brown so early in the summer had me paranoid. 

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Today will be our last day below 100*.  
High of 97*
 

The next 10 days will be 100-104* - cloudless, hot, ugly days.  🤬

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I just hit the 3 inch mark with more rain still to come.  I'll have to do some checking but this is the largest 24 hour rainfall I've had in at least 2 years.  These are the rainfall totals as of 9:52 this morning, the 5.9 is right over my father in laws farm.  Needless to say his corn and beans are no longer thirsty.  What's surprising about this is that there arn't any river flood warning issued yet.

2.jpg

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

I just hit the 3 inch mark with more rain still to come.  I'll have to do some checking but this is the largest 24 hour rainfall I've had in at least 2 years.  These are the rainfall totals as of 9:52 this morning, the 5.9 is right over my father in laws farm.  Needless to say his corn and beans are no longer thirsty.  What's surprising about this is that there arn't any river flood warning issued yet.

2.jpg

How about sharing? 😎

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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3 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Finally caught a close one on video. The flash was a lot brighter than how it was captured (kinda behind where I aimed this). 

 

I love that popping sound from a close strike.

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We have been missed so many times since last October with large precipitation amounts, that you take all forecasts with some skepticism. The Drought has continued on with slight worsening recently. It is hard to chip away at a drought around here in July, August, and September. Hope this forecast verifies for rainfall. 

 

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Waiting for convection to develop here. So far I’m not impressed.

Not much of a CU field over the upstream terrain and it’s almost 4pm. Either something is gonna break the cap east of the terrain and go crazy, or we’re getting nada.

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33 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Latest drought monitor. Not good. 

Technically not in drought anymore in this corner state, but hate to see the majority still in D1-D3. And it hasn't been exactly wet around here lately either, just a few brief showers since June 17th. OAX now saying 101 Tuesday, though they've been aggressive at times with heat this year they might be right with this one. Rough start to summer back at my parents in the Memphis area is well, only 0.88" fell in June (10th driest on record). 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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4 hours ago, Clinton said:

I'll try!  I believe the front next weekend might be strong enough to produce some rain for ya.  The ridge should get shoved west.

That’s encouraging.  We have some rain off to the SE but that’s going east.  
The tropics are really revving their engines and the Texas coast will see rain.  It’s a matter of time before the Gulf cooks up one of its hurricanes. The water is warm and there have been a number of systems off of Africa trying to spin up. 
It’s just now getting interesting. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Noctilucent clouds will be visible in Northern US.   
Keep your eyes peeled.  
It is said they will be the brightest in the last 15 yrs. 
 

https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2022/jul/01/rare-clouds-that-glow-in-the-dark-are-the-most-vib/

 

1BFA7D3B-706B-453A-8256-EDBFFAABF7D6.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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3 hours ago, Phil said:

Waiting for convection to develop here. So far I’m not impressed.

Not much of a CU field over the upstream terrain and it’s almost 4pm. Either something is gonna break the cap east of the terrain and go crazy, or we’re getting nada.

Looked pretty bad west of Frederick?  Spots  of 3 to 4 inches?

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29 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Looked pretty bad west of Frederick?  Spots  of 3 to 4 inches?

Barely a drop of rain here. Good stuff missed north again.

Plenty of dry lightning though. A couple bolts hit within a few hundred yards or so.

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It was a nasty day. 90°F with a dewpoint of 78°F.

Thunderstorm outflow saved the day, though. Knocked dewpoints down by roughly 10°F. Much less oppressive now.

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We’re at 89*
72 dew pt

We hit 100’s tomorrow for 10 days. 
if the power generator fails like they did in winter, a lot of people will die. 
Cross your fingers we make it to Fall ok 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Wow, now up to 4.18” of rain since sunset! Radar estimates much higher, closer to 5”.

Fireplace outcove is flooding, and now there’s water in the basement as the sump pump seems to the croaking.

WTF happened. There was nothing on radar then a stray cumulus moved over the Potomac River and exploded upwards. Since then it’s been a relentless torrent.

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Wow, now up to 4.18” of rain since sunset! Radar estimates much higher, closer to 5”.

Fireplace outcove is flooding, and now there’s water in the basement as the sump pump seems to the croaking.

WTF happened. There was nothing on radar then a stray cumulus moved over the Potomac River and exploded upwards. Since then it’s been a relentless torrent.

Some major close lighting strikes as well with some of the storms

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4 hours ago, Phil said:

Wow, now up to 4.18” of rain since sunset! Radar estimates much higher, closer to 5”.

Fireplace outcove is flooding, and now there’s water in the basement as the sump pump seems to the croaking.

WTF happened. There was nothing on radar then a stray cumulus moved over the Potomac River and exploded upwards. Since then it’s been a relentless torrent.

When it rains, its pours!  Glad to hear the Heavens have opened up for you...but it appears it may have been too much of a good thing?  I noticed the radar was lighting up last night around dinner time and I was thinking to myself "I hope Phil gets some action."

Edit: Did you get any flood damage?

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The spotty nature of Summer-Time storms is pretty evident on the map below...both KS and IL have done quite well...

image.png

 

The attention now turns for us up north as the quintessential "Ring of Fire" pattern fires up right around the peak season for Derecho season...

1.png

 

I'm starting to see a big signal for a nocturnal jet to fire up later Mon pm into Tues am....then again Wed-Thu...

0z FV3 starting to "see" it and the RGEM...

1.gif

2.gif

 

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Once we get past next weekend, all the globals are starting to recognize the amplified North American 500mb pattern and laying out a major eastern CONUS trough.  Relief will be on the way but does it penetrate deep down into Texas?  Gosh, it's like they have this imaginary dome.

image.gif

 

1.gif

 

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On a side note, wrt to the storm action locally, Izzi touched on the idea I had earlier that storms tend to fire up farther south than modeled...

Quote
Tuesday afternoon and beyond, there does look to be potentially
several more convectively enhanced vort traversing the general
region. Timing and placement details of these features will have
huge impacts on precip chances and amounts as well as temperatures
as MCS activity will undoubtedly play a big role in the location
of the effective boundary. Near and south of the boundary, air
mass will be very humid and hot, with heat indices over 100F a
good bet. That boundary could easily lift north into or even north
of our CWA at times, bringing heat and humidity to the region.
Typically, the effective boundary ends up being farther south than
model guidance suggests in active ring of fire regimes as
convective cold pools shove the effective boundary southward.

 

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07/03/2022

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 84/56 there was no rain fall and there was 83% of possible sunshine. Here in MBY the overnight low was 59 and that is the current temperature with clear skies. The low so far at GRR was 60. For today the average H/L is 83/62 the record high of 97 happened in 1921,1949, and 1966 the record low of 43 was in 1968. The next few days look to continue to have very typical summer like conditions with warm days and mild nights. The only change is that there looks to be a better chance of some much-needed rain on Monday night. Not sure of the timing of the rain but there is a chance that some fireworks events could be impacted.

Also of note is that at 3:10 AM tomorrow morning the Earth will be at Aphelion. At aphelion the Earth is the farthest from the sun. This year the distance is 94,509,598 miles. Come January 4th 2023 the Earth will be the closest to the sun at 91,403,039 miles.

 

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I'm so thankful for the rain I received Saturday morning I ended up with 3.1 inches.  With the upcoming forecast being ridiculously hot we would have been in big trouble without it.  Some areas just to my NE missed out and they are very dry and will likely move into the D2 category in the next drought monitor.  Looks like some serious sweat weather ahead.

@NWSKansasCity

 
The good news is that it looks dry for most folks today. A few storms can't be ruled out south of I-70. The bad news is that it gets hot and humid this week. We're talking mid and upper 90 degree highs with heat index values in the 100-110 range through much of the work week.
 
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5 hours ago, Tom said:

When it rains, its pours!  Glad to hear the Heavens have opened up for you...but it appears it may have been too much of a good thing?  I noticed the radar was lighting up last night around dinner time and I was thinking to myself "I hope Phil gets some action."

Edit: Did you get any flood damage?

Yeah we had a leak in the family room firewood outcove and water in the basement. No bueno. Luckily this particular location doesn’t flood (we’ve had more rain than this before, haha).

Nearby areas flooded badly though. Local creeks rose something like 7-10ft in 45 mins, some roads were washed out a few miles upcounty.

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

Once we get past next weekend, all the globals are starting to recognize the amplified North American 500mb pattern and laying out a major eastern CONUS trough.  Relief will be on the way but does it penetrate deep down into Texas?  Gosh, it's like they have this imaginary dome.

image.gif

 

1.gif

 

It ain’t imaginary Tom!   
This heat dome is real and has attitude.  Everything is just surviving.   
The Texas border is a death trap and the flood doesn’t stop.  
Will no one do something!?  Affects us all. 
A week of this ahead.  Deadly humid heat.  It’s at the right time but it hurts just the same.  
 

86* at 9:30      Dew at 72. 
High of 100* today

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Temps started off in the 50s this morning, but humidity and heat will be on the rise later today and especially tomorrow.

 

Nice refreshing cool down next weekend w/ highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

 

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Wow there was a crapload of large debris on the way to the grocery store this AM. Big stuff like full sized logs and dumpsters+boulders from a construction site. Haven’t seen anything like this since that huge morning rainstorm and flash flood in 2019.

Looks like 5-7” fell in just a few hours. That’s a lot of water.

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