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July 2022 Observations and Discussions


Clinton

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90* at 11:30 pm.  
 

Foreshadows a very hot week. 🥵

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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16 hours ago, bud2380 said:

Looks like the storms I drove through in eastern Colorado and western Nebraska last night are moving into Cedar Rapids and Iowa City areas now. We had a brief extremely heavy downpour in North Platte last night, which is where we stayed the night. We were in Colorado, got to go to the Summit of Pikes Peak. What a beautiful part of the country. 

Been up there, also on Mt. Evans. Absolutely insane how far up it goes... Got headaches from the altitude sickness!

Given I've lived at sea level all my life, it's a miracle I didn't feel worse! :lol:

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Nature certainly delivered fireworks around here and thankfully it came after most of the fireworks displays.  All in all, great timing and plenty of rain fell.  My area was under the ribbon of training storms last night.  I crashed out early and only woke up briefly to the sound of thunder/lightning.  Pretty much slept through the whole event.  

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I stepped outside this morning and its warm and muggy...73F/72F, today will feature the type of day "the air you wear"...Heat Advisory issued and storms should Fire up along the Lake Breeze boundary right around dinner time.  I always enjoy these set ups bc you can literally see the storms bubble up overhead and the majestic beauty of the cumulonimbus clouds that erect high into the atmosphere. 

Glad that the real severe stuff never ended up transpiring but today that could be a different story.  I think hail and winds will be the biggest threat along with Flooding from the training nature.

Out of all the higher rez models, the WRF-ARW2 came the closest to what transpired...most of the models were showing the storms to track north of here.  Earlier in the day yesterday, the model runs had my area in the bullseye and that is what ended up happening.

 

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0z GEFS...Next 5 days look like this area could be the magnet...

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0z Euro...image.png

 

 

Looking for relief???  It's coming later this week/weekend for the MW/GL's and east coast...then the rest of our Sub will see a strong Summer time CF penetrate deep into the south Week 2...even into the TX Dome??? @Andie @OKwx2k4 @Iceresistance

 

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Most of the area finally received a good rain fall. Here in MBY I recorded a total of 0.82” of rain fall in last nights showers and thundershowers. Looks like the official amount at GRR was 0.83” The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 90/62 there was a total of 0.71” of rain fall before midnight the day had 54% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 83/62 the record high of 101 was set in 2012 (note here in MBY I recorded a unofficial high of 108) the record low of 44 was set in 1972. The next few days look to have very typical summer weather with highs in the 80’s and lows in the 60’s

 

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Good news into the very LR as the Euro Weeklies are showing the MJO heading into the Null Phase...I haven't paid much attn to the previous forecast runs but yesterday's run is good news with respect to dampening down the potential for large scale heat across the central CONUS.  The CFS/CFSv2 ain't buying a pronounced Heat signal.  I'll take it.

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I've been up in the TC since Friday. Great weather the entire long weekend. We went out for a great fireworks display last night. It was clear, calm and mid 70s. This morning it is very humid. 70° with a 70 dew and 99% humidity. You can see it in the air.

I also finally got my weather station set up! It's a Davis Vantage Vue. I'm still learning all of its features. I also may try to mount it somewhere else. My fiancee's property has a lot of trees so there's no real ideal place for it. Pretty cool though!

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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

The humidity is about to get real thick today for KC and points south.  This is the first excessive heat warning of the year for me.  I'll be ready for the pattern change come Sunday. 

image.png.2214d8a801a2b017552f5c5b455309d9.png

My son is in KC this week with our High School church youth group at the National Evangelical Youth Challenge Conference. He said it is disgustingly humid, using my terms. His cousins live in Shawnee so he knows what the city feels like in the summer. Went to plenty of Royals games and Worlds/Oceans of fun. Supposedly around 4000 there this week in downtown KC. Our youth group is staying at the Downtown Marriot if you know the area. I think the conference is next door to that hotel. 

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

My son is in KC this week with our High School church youth group at the National Evangelical Youth Challenge Conference. He said it is disgustingly humid, using my terms. His cousins live in Shawnee so he knows what the city feels like in the summer. Went to plenty of Royals games and Worlds/Oceans of fun. Supposedly around 4000 there this week in downtown KC. Our youth group is staying at the Downtown Marriot if you know the area. I think the conference is next door to that hotel. 

It's nasty the only thing that helps in a nice breeze.  I may hit 100 tomorrow with due points in the 70s.

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Had an early t'storm round come through. This one was isolated, but when it was in Ohio it looked like a disorganized line coming towards us. 

There's more coming from behind these storms. I could see this activity cooling the potential maximum high a few degrees.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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This all blew up kind of fast. I was expecting there to be a distinctive break between storms and a clearing. Well that ain't happening today. 😎

KJKL_loop (25).gif

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Looks like a bust here today. Lots of crapvection and cloud cover. If anything interesting happens it’ll have to be a nocturnal MCS or some late development along the subsequent shortwave.

Muggy and cloudy, low 80s with dews in the mid-70s.

Edit: Upper 70s dewpoints now. Instant sweat drippage.

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27 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Sounds like things will be taking an interesting turn here soon...

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Are you on the north or south side of Sioux Falls? Could make a pretty big difference as you’ll be right under the bow head, which often has the most intense conditions but also the sharpest cutoff.

We ended up under the bow head in the 2012 derecho and it delivered 20 minutes of 80-90mph gusts. A bit further north and that was reduced to 60mph.

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23 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I'm on the extreme SW edge of the city, right before you head out to the Tea suburb. Crossing my fingers for some solid action. 

In that case you might be in a good spot. Probably on the northern end of the bow.

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2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Looks like that derecho in SD means business.  Wind gusts are upwards of 90mph with the highest reports.  

96mph at Huron Airport. 😬 

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These little meso-lows are packing the strongest winds. I’ll bet there are gusts over 100mph in there somewhere.

6EB05372-BA6A-499F-B108-695BBA4B75A0.jpeg

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Hawkstwelve can have the derecho s***.  I just want heavy rain.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Looks like a wake low might be developing behind the derecho. Multiple obs show warming temperatures and continued strong winds behind the line.

This looks like a more classic progressive derecho vs the low topped one that roared through during the spring.

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Welcome to the Southeast Iowa "hell hole" as i call it in years like this. Today between  1 and 2 pm

Temp 99.7

Dewpoint 77.5

Real feel 114.2

In past 30 days a total  rain of .95

 Rain to south much of June and now ring of fire to north all week most likely.  Long range models are a total  joke here in summer. Its drought begets drought.  Much of our 1 inch rains in these drought summers come when nws  says 0 to 30%.. 

 

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10 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like Mitchell is experiencing some of it's strongest gusts now, well after the leading edge of the derecho has passed. A little backwards from what you would normally expect. 

Edit: Tornado Warning just posted. 

image.png

Derechos are a unique beast. The real big ones often have some of the strongest winds in the rear inflow jet, towards the back of the precip shield.

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We have a 5th season as well as California.  
Fire season is here.   
This was taken not a half mile from my house.   
It got a lot larger and jumped the road.  
Good times! 😎

 

DEABDA5A-6A5A-4B91-B7A2-A9F06CCB4F4E.png

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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3 hours ago, Phil said:

Looks like a bust here today. Lots of crapvection and cloud cover. If anything interesting happens it’ll have to be a nocturnal MCS or some late development along the subsequent shortwave.

Muggy and cloudy, low 80s with dews in the mid-70s.

Edit: Upper 70s dewpoints now. Instant sweat drippage.

  Decent storms formed afterall some heavey rainers and even a tornado warning in south A.A county.O wow someone saw a possable spin up apparently.

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

FSD has reached up to 80mph.

 

How’s the rear inflow jet treating u? Seeing a lot of 70+ obs.

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The personal stations in far sw Sioux Falls are under an inch of rain.  The stations just north of Sioux Falls, under the rotating comma head, are well over 3".

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Unfortunately I haven't had the opportunity to setup my weather station in an area that is more susceptible to the elements. Plus I think a large hail stone damaged the anemometer at our rental townhouse. So my measurements haven't been as good. But judging by multiple fences, trees, potters, garbage cans, etc. I would say it's giving our neighborhood a pretty good beating. 

Which station do you have? If it’s a VP2 the ultrasonic anemometer might come in handy. It’s expensive but no moving parts reduces the risk for damage and need for maintenance.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Which station do you have? If it’s a VP2 the ultrasonic anemometer might come in handy. It’s expensive but no moving parts reduces the risk for damage and need for maintenance.

Advice you could give to Ashland, KY. Reminds me of the MCS on 6/13. As soon as the shelf cloud came over us, DWU stopped reporting the next 2 days.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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30 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The personal stations in far sw Sioux Falls are under an inch of rain.  The stations just north of Sioux Falls, under the rotating comma head, are well over 3".

How do you think this is looking for CR? Should we expect heavy rain and strong winds here?

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1 hour ago, Iowawx said:

How do you think this is looking for CR? Should we expect heavy rain and strong winds here?

Models really aren't too enthusiastic about much rain here.  They mostly show a quick-moving, moderate-strength line sweeping through our area later.  The heavy rain is up where the storms are training along the front.

Update:  I just checked the latest couple HRRR runs and they are more solid with the line around 11pm, have some decent rain.  We'll find out soon.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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