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July 2022 Observations and Discussions


Clinton

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28 minutes ago, Phil said:

This one looks kinda meh (a bit too early in the day to maximize instability).

But even weak sauce MCS’s can produce good lightning. ⚡️ 

They mentioned some activity this evening going into overnight hours. Maybe this is just round 1. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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One of the noise makers was hitching a ride on the Jeep today. 😺

IMG_5042.JPG

IMG_5033.JPG

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Mostly a garden variety storm coming thru here. There was maybe 30mph winds with initial passage, now downpours and some thunder. No real close flashing yet.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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They report a tree down in Ironton blocking a road. This is several times I've dodged a severe storm in Ashland, but something gets reported within 10 miles of here. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Currently. 108 !

And yes tStasch, this situation has the ability to top 108.   Prepare. 

It’s getting serious here.  
Senior citizens struggling just to go to store or doctor.  People that work outside battling sun stroke and health issues.  List goes on.  If Midwest heat forecast is correct, get ready   

So….. seriously.  What’s the picture? 
When is the drop to normal?  90’s. 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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1 hour ago, Timmy Supercell said:

They report a tree down in Ironton blocking a road. This is several times I've dodged a severe storm in Ashland, but something gets reported within 10 miles of here. 

Such is the nature of severe weather out here 75% of the time.

All of the wind damage happens in small microbursts within the main downdraft/precip shaft. Most times they miss, of course, but when they hit it’s pretty wild.

Every now and then there’ll be a very favorable setup for mixing or intense mesoscale dynamics that will produce a widespread severe-caliber macroburst. Those are the fun ones.

Supercells happen as well, but those are hit and miss. Return period for those around here is the one every 2-3 years at any given location. Maybe a bit better out there in KY.

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Some much needed rainfall currently falling. Wont be added to a lot, but every bit helps. We are definitely running BN for the year, in terms of rainfall.

Temp atm is a coolish 72F. Lows tanite in the cool 50s w/ clearing skies.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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7 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Yeah, Phil. You win the longshot call of the month award for the heat rebound, for sure. I'm praying for a hurricane to blunt it for my locale, but somewhere is going to bake.

I’m sorry. 😔 Would’ve been happy to be wrong on this one.

Full blown La Niña/-PMM with descending +QBO shear is the most prolific Central US summer blowtorch signal in existence. Basically no way to avoid it.

Summers with developing El Niño or lots of West-Pacific convection tend to run cooler in the US. One of the next few years will likely go that route..but not this one. Lol.

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Just now, Phil said:

I’m sorry. 😔 Would’ve been happy to be wrong on this one.

Full blown La Niña/-PMM with descending +QBO shear is the most prolific US summer torch signal in existence. Basically no way to avoid it.

Summers with developing El Niño or lots of West-Pacific convection tend to run cooler in the US. One of the next few years will likely go that route..but not this one. Lol.

No doubt. And i know that, but a guy can hope. Lol. It wasn't a matter of if but when and where. That's what I was thinking as I wrote that, too. 

If you wanted to teach a class on all the perfect phases of La Niña over the US, late 2010 through April 2012 probably would be the "book" I'd use.

The promise and hope here is that this doesn't last. The future looks pretty great after.

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Well, it isnt over until the fat lady sings!  Kudos to @Tom for  the early July outlook!  It indeed did turn wet.  The dominant ridge took a jog far enough to  allow  southern  Iowa to turn wetter. Today alone I got .81 today on what I refer to as a "caboose"  isolated cells  in a departing system.  So In July Im sitting at 2.38 indeed wetter than June! However  I repeatedly  missed the heaviest  rain, predominantly  on Missouri  and along  the border or earlier farther north in Iowa! Most of lawns and crops have returned  to green and lush, at least temporarily. 

20220708_172033.jpg

Screenshot_20220708-172106_RadarScope.jpg

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Such is the nature of severe weather out here 75% of the time.

All of the wind damage happens in small microbursts within the main downdraft/precip shaft. Most times they miss, of course, but when they hit it’s pretty wild.

Every now and then there’ll be a very favorable setup for mixing or intense mesoscale dynamics that will produce a widespread severe-caliber macroburst. Those are the fun ones.

Supercells happen as well, but those are hit and miss. Return period for those around here is the one every 2-3 years at any given location. Maybe a bit better out there in KY.

Tornadoes make a good example of that. I'm sure you can find a town in Texas that has never had one, but Vancouver Washington has had like 4 or 5 of them? One of them at least strong/severe. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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On 7/7/2022 at 9:00 AM, Phil said:

Yeah, late July and August look horrific in analog pools. Just a sea of warmth except for the West.

But I have hope that summer might “end” early, maybe a legit flip to cool weather in early/mid September? Hard to say, will depend on timing/amplitude of the MJO/GWO. But it’s possible.

And I'm assuming the opposite for the west in this scenario?

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

And I'm assuming the opposite for the west in this scenario?

Yeah could be. Though staying power of that pattern is TBD.

I’m just thinking if we flip to troughing for 2-3 weeks in September, that if/when ridging returns we’ll be past the worst of heat climo.

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11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah could be. Though staying power of that pattern is TBD.

I’m just thinking if we flip to troughing for 2-3 weeks in September, that if/when ridging returns we’ll be past the worst of heat climo.

90s become increasingly infrequent past mid August here in the PNW. And substantial heat, above 95F, becomes exceptionally uncommon. Record for Sept is a wild 98F set in 1988. Second place is 94F in 1981.

Safe to say, torching in the PNW by then is quite dampened, and probably very comfortable by your standards; in the 80s with very low humidity. And since the jet tends to ramp up by then, cooldowns come with a punch, and often bring negatively tilted troughs with great shear... great for thunderstorm outbreaks. A la sept 5th and 15th 2013, sept 7th 2019

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Sky is puking right now. 8” radar estimate a few miles from here.

7E6E7337-66C2-4AD6-88C9-91BE11336DD7.png

any lightning? seems like it's trying to stratoform out, but also looks like WAA from the north convecting over your area via isentropic lift over that low level cold pooling (temps in your area are in the upper 60s, compared to mid 70s elsewhere)

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

90s become increasingly infrequent past mid August here in the PNW. And substantial heat, above 95F, becomes exceptionally uncommon. Record for Sept is a wild 98F set in 1988. Second place is 94F in 1981.

Safe to say, torching in the PNW by then is quite dampened, and probably very comfortable by your standards; in the 80s with very low humidity. And since the jet tends to ramp up by then, cooldowns come with a punch, and often bring negatively tilted troughs with great shear... great for thunderstorm outbreaks. A la sept 5th and 15th 2013, sept 7th 2019

A 1988 type evolution wouldn’t shock me. 

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9 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Well, it isnt over until the fat lady sings!  Kudos to @Tom for  the early July outlook!  It indeed did turn wet.  The dominant ridge took a jog far enough to  allow  southern  Iowa to turn wetter. Today alone I got .81 today on what I refer to as a "caboose"  isolated cells  in a departing system.  So In July Im sitting at 2.38 indeed wetter than June! However  I repeatedly  missed the heaviest  rain, predominantly  on Missouri  and along  the border or earlier farther north in Iowa! Most of lawns and crops have returned  to green and lush, at least temporarily. 

20220708_172033.jpg

Screenshot_20220708-172106_RadarScope.jpg

Super glad you finally scored some good rains!  Enjoy it while you can bc it appears we dry out for a time next week.

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It was a 100% cloudy day yesterday and we topped out at 77F, albeit, still a rather humid day, it felt like I was living along the west coast in San Diego during the "June Gloom" days when there is an onshore flow.  We had a persistent NE Flow off the lake that gave this feeling gloomier feel in the air.  On a side note, my A/C got a break and finally turned it off late afternoon and opened up the windows.  

A top notch weekend shaping up for Chitown and nature is timing it off quite well.  The "Taste of Chicago" started off yesterday and lasts throughout next week.  You couldn't ask for better weather all through next week!  The vendors I'm sure are thrilled bc you can get nasty Heat and humidity this time of year.

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On a completely side note, while surfing different sites this morning, I "saw" something rather intriguing off of Ben Noll's wx maps.  Take a look at the temp pattern from Jan-June of this year.

image.jpeg

 

Compare this to the Dalton Minimum temp constructive map across North America...particularly, paying close attn to  the West Coast/NE PAC/NE Canada/Greenland...while not a perfect match, isn't it getting pretty close to various locations around our Continent?  For instance, the pocket of cool off of the Cali coast is spot on, Canada is very cold (except the northeast part) and into the northern Lower 48.  The NE PAC is very warm and looks to continue into next Winter.  I'm really curious to see where this all ends up heading as we close out the 2nd half of 2022.  I believe Canada will have another cold Autumn/Winter and those cold anomalies aren't going anywhere.  Interesting times ahead in the longer term with respect to the climatic impacts for North America.

 

maunder_minimum_temperature.gif

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The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 81/62. There was no rain fall at either my house or officially at GR. Areas to the south of Grand Rapids did see some good rain fall. At GR there was 39% of sunshine. The overnight low and current temperature in MBY was/is 56. The average H/L for today is 83/62 the record high of 101 was set in 1936 and the record low of 48 was set in 1942 and 1961. The next week looks to once again be very typical of July with highs in the upper 70's to mid 80's night time lows with range from the low 50's to the mid 60's the only chance of rain looks to be Monday night otherwise the dry conditions will continue.

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The GFS and Euro are not on the same page in the long range.  Please let the Euro be right or at least the closer model!  Over the next 10 days they both agree on many of us being dry, with little to no rain in western MO.

0d40d5_90e75a28bdd047559ffef621a6c4e51a~mv2.webp

0d40d5_9f191d59e53a4dd18dd3d7fd9faa514b~mv2.webp

 

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Absolutely gorgeous weather today, w deep blue skies and very comfortable temps. Highs today in the 70s and lows are projected to fall in the chilly upper 40s, w the only exception would be the city of Detroit, where lows are expected to drop down to around 51F. Bonfire tanite is looking very good.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Great day to get outside and do some yard work today.  Currently it's cloudy and 71 degrees on its way to the mid 80s.  The heat moves back in on Monday!

image.png.aee43696b2a47b95002bb0fad0406269.png

So true amigo. Perfect yard weather. Ya took the words right outta my mouth.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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68 and rain actually feels a lot better than I thought it would. 

No thunderstorms, only complaint but other than that, it could be a lot worse today. Like 98 and no rain..

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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12 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

any lightning? seems like it's trying to stratoform out, but also looks like WAA from the north convecting over your area via isentropic lift over that low level cold pooling (temps in your area are in the upper 60s, compared to mid 70s elsewhere)

There was some intracloud lightning but it was infrequent. Very warm cloud tops/high freezing levels, so warm rain processes dominated (hence the heavy rates) and not much electrical activity.

And yeah we started out in the mid 70s with near 100% humidity but cold pooled into the upper 60s under that convection. Was interesting to watch.

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1 hour ago, Timmy Supercell said:

68 and rain actually feels a lot better than I thought it would. 

No thunderstorms, only complaint but other than that, it could be a lot worse today. Like 98 and no rain..

That’ll happen soon enough. 😑

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14 hours ago, Phil said:

Yeah could be. Though staying power of that pattern is TBD.

I’m just thinking if we flip to troughing for 2-3 weeks in September, that if/when ridging returns we’ll be past the worst of heat climo.

I agree. Thinking a muted effect will show back up down the pattern again that far, as these things tend to overlap into the next season(s) depending on strength. 

Pretty wild fluctuations in modeling of our central conus magnifying glass of heat. Goodness, is all i can say. 

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10 hours ago, Tom said:

On a completely side note, while surfing different sites this morning, I "saw" something rather intriguing off of Ben Noll's wx maps.  Take a look at the temp pattern from Jan-June of this year.

image.jpeg

 

Compare this to the Dalton Minimum temp constructive map across North America...particularly, paying close attn to  the West Coast/NE PAC/NE Canada/Greenland...while not a perfect match, isn't it getting pretty close to various locations around our Continent?  For instance, the pocket of cool off of the Cali coast is spot on, Canada is very cold (except the northeast part) and into the northern Lower 48.  The NE PAC is very warm and looks to continue into next Winter.  I'm really curious to see where this all ends up heading as we close out the 2nd half of 2022.  I believe Canada will have another cold Autumn/Winter and those cold anomalies aren't going anywhere.  Interesting times ahead in the longer term with respect to the climatic impacts for North America.

 

maunder_minimum_temperature.gif

I believe we are in the start stages of seeing the N. Hem temp stepdown.

Some things are just perfect. 

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22 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I agree. Thinking a muted effect will show back up down the pattern again that far, as these things tend to overlap into the next season(s) depending on strength. 

Pretty wild fluctuations in modeling of our central conus magnifying glass of heat. Goodness, is all i can say. 

Starting to show up on the week-2 EPS now.

Mentally preparing myself. The dog days a cometh.

74E23CE9-0C8E-4E12-B761-FE0C34E25FC9.gif 

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