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July 2022 Observations and Discussions


Clinton

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13 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Currently 91 with a DP of 77. Topped out at 98 with a heat index of an eye-wattering 119 degrees. Not a fan.

As CentralNeb said, you can't do anything in this weather. It's one of those days where you quickly walk from the AC house to the AC car to the AC store and back. 

The NWS for Sioux Falls showed a max heat index value of 104° yesterday. Just curious where you saw a reading of 119° as obviously that is a huge disparity. 
 

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KFSD.html

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Can’t escape the “hound of hell” heat.
Husband must work through this. As a major city fleet manager, he keeps city emergency services able and ready in this state of emergency.  
My neighbors are escaping to New Mexico mountains.  But they haven’t heard the late July blowtorch news yet.  They may regret leaving quite so soon. They return to the real rough stuff.  
 

I’ve lived through 111* before.  
It’s really tough.  That’s Needles, Calif heat.  As long as the A/C holds out I can do this. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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9 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

But wait. I thought the governor said this was all solved after the last winter mass casualty event.🙄🙄

63C198D3-9E8B-44E2-A464-4AA514F42ACA.jpeg

Texas has said the same that we’re ok.  
If we lose power people will die by the boatload.  They know it.  
We’re all praying.  
 

AE36A011-0239-4528-BDC2-2794130CE987.jpeg

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Currently 103*.  Feels like 106*. 
Just put a large glass of ice in the birds water.  Too much for these guys to take.   I see so few birds.  Saw a hawk this morning hauling it 1/4 mi toward the lake.  Should have followed him! 
More mañana!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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They’re calling for 103 tomorrow.  That means it will be at least 105 with a higher index.   
I mean, who did we all piss off?  This is just crazy.  And a long way to go.  
Im concerned on several levels.  Usually we may get 2 weeks max of this insanity.  
 

Edit:       Our wind has finally moved off of 0.   We had 10 mph winds which increased our wind power generation.  Power Auth was warning us of failures as the wind generators were flat.  

Citizens raised their thermostats and conserved. We dodged the bullet.   If this continues they may restrict industrial usage.  
Its getting rough.  But this heat could kill so we’d best cooperate.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Hot is the word today, currently 98 with a Heat Index of 106.  Very small chance of thunderstorms tonight behind a nice cold front that will drop temps into the mid 80s tomorrow.

Yup prolly the front that just blew through here. It's a nice one!

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On 7/10/2022 at 4:39 AM, Tom said:

What a gift from nature, right?  Just amazing wx to be had in the middle of Summer.  Had a high of 76F and deep blue skies along with a nice stiff NE wind off the lake.  Great bon fire weather.  The way I see it for the rest of summer is our region will escape much of the prolong heat waves that will form.  I'm sure we'll see more 90's but transient wx and a return to a more active stretch the following week as a NW Flow pattern arrives...the return of the "Ring of Fire".  

In terms of the Monsoon, it will fire right back up later this week as tropical moisture gets infused into the pattern.  Both GEFS/EPS showing the mean ridge to meander right over the S Plains which allows the southerly flow to return on the backside of this long term long wave feature.  

What about our Sub???  IMHO, those of us N of say, the I-80 corridor and points east into the GL's will be experiencing a NW Flow aloft allowing for several fronts to pass through starting later next weekend into the following week.  I see a more active pattern developing.  Models will eventually pick up on this as we get closer in time.

 

image.gif

 

 

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The big clue why I see the NW Flow returning Week 3 & 4 of the month is a flip back towards a -EPO and +PNA.  Surprisingly, all the models are in agreement.

 

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I'm telling ya, nothing beats this type of weather this time of the year. The bad part is that you know it cannot last too long in July.

Looking forward to some active weather here. It has been awhile. Plus, I've noticed that so far this Spring and Summer, not  a lot of severe weather has been occurring. It has been fairly tranquil.

Also, great explanation as always.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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On 7/10/2022 at 9:14 AM, westMJim said:

Not only has it been rather dry there continues to be a thunderstorm drought. At Grand Rapids there were only 4 thunderstorms in June (remember the term thunderstorm for this purpose can mean only one detected lightning flash in the area) and there has only been one reported "thunderstorm" so far in July at Grand Rapids. That one did indeed have some moderate lightning with it.

I have noticed that also. Very odd.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Starting today, we will see a nice stretch of sunny weather and comfy DP's before a wall of humidity rushes E later on Friday into the weekend where we will be tracking a disturbance near the MW/GL's.  Cherish these days while you can in mid July!

image.gif

 

0z GEFS trending wetter for the GL's and eastern ag belt in the D5-10...nice hit for the IL crop fields...it also looks better for MO as well... @Clintonriding the edge and I think you'll get some moisture outta this pattern.

image.gif

 

The models keep trending better in the precip dept for the MW peeps and our eastern ag belt.  Several factors coming into plays...1) Disturbance tracking SE out of the Upper MW stalls out across MW/Lower Lakes 2) Stalled Frontal  boundary across OHV/S Gulf states 3) Tropical moisture

2.gif

 

Except for our central/southern Sub, the eastern Sub will escape any real sustained Heat...0z EPS trending wetter from IA/MN and points East and it surely wasn't looking like this just 24 hours ago.  I had a hunch the NW flow would deliver and I hope the trends continue.  IMO, it won't be till later the following weekend where the central ag belt will see a return of the "Ring of Fire" and the influence of the +PNA pattern.  The last week of July we could see the entire N.A. pattern amplify and drive a trough through the eastern CONUS.

1.png

 

Boy, the Euro weeklies are playing catch up quickly...CFSv2 has had the lead on this for a couple weeks now...Blocking pattern is poised to set up shop over N.A. to close out July.  Nice looking "hook over the top"...will this continue into August?  My gut says YES, but will nature AGREE?  As always...its' T-B-D...

image.png

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This is pretty cool...check out these small features in the vorticity animation below that will effect the Upper MW/MW/OHV starting Fri-Mon.  The big feature is the dominant High Pressure causing the NW Flow pattern but the 2 pieces of energy that will create the precip chances are shown below...

There is a small/potent piece of energy off the northern coast of Cali late Thu pm into Fri that tracks up and over the Ridge thru the N Rockies and of course the weaker disturbance over the E Dakotas/MN/IA on Friday that tracks SE...both seem to phase together along the stalled front.

image.gif

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Here in MBY I recorded 0.19” of total rain fall yesterday while not much that is still better than the official amount of just 0.02” at GRR. So, yesterday’s rain fall was mostly light and hit and miss. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 81/63 there was that official 0.02” of rain fall and there was 25% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L remains 83/63 the record high of 106 was in 1936 and the record low of 42 was way back in 1898. While there are chances of some rain the rest of this week the chances do not look to be widespread and once again may be hit and miss. And there is a chance of some very warm to hot conditions come up next week.

 

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Lake Superior running cold--

I think mostly a product of cold first half of the year in that area- especially the Spring. Regardless, I was struck by-- on the avg - (only 27-28 years is not much in the grand scheme) how quickly the lake on avg warms in July - peaks in Sept (which I did know) but then falls like a rock in Oct. I just thought the process would be more rounded rather than so extreme in the ups and downs as we are talking Lake Superior (nearly 32,000sq miles) - not Lake of the Ozarks.

image.png.42793de57a9b09f82a36a76e15ea1158.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

I find this model to advertise overly warm 850’s in the D5+ range…

Might be too warm, however it looks nearly identical to both the GEFS and Canadian ensembles (The Canadian ensemble mean *does* look too warm IMO, which is why I haven’t posted it).

However, it’s a +NPO/-PNA pattern which is notorious for heat. Been looking for any sign of a cool pattern but cannot find it.

Mother Nature seems to have made up her mind. She wants to run hot this summer. Wish it weren’t so, but alas..:(

(GEFS top, CMC ensemble bottom).

40A59802-85FE-45EE-A5FD-692E7F2E8AFB.gifABA702CB-A24C-4659-8A07-79BEC000712D.gif

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11 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Besides the first few frames, that's almost an entire run of red for SD and the other Plains states. Yipee. 

La Niña summers are a b*tch.

Been blessed out here though. Lots of NW flow and relatively temperate conditions. Almost certainly won’t last, but I’m leaving for FL/GA on July 31st anyway, so it won’t matter at that point. :lol: 

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15 hours ago, Andie said:

They’re calling for 103 tomorrow.  That means it will be at least 105 with a higher index.   
I mean, who did we all piss off?  This is just crazy.  And a long way to go.  
Im concerned on several levels.  Usually we may get 2 weeks max of this insanity.  
 

Edit:       Our wind has finally moved off of 0.   We had 10 mph winds which increased our wind power generation.  Power Auth was warning us of failures as the wind generators were flat.  

Citizens raised their thermostats and conserved. We dodged the bullet.   If this continues they may restrict industrial usage.  
Its getting rough.  But this heat could kill so we’d best cooperate.  

We haven't had a true La Nina Summer in years.

And it also appears that ERCOT has not fixed all of the power grid after the Extreme Cold and Snow in February 2021, and it's being strained by this heat.

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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In fact if there’s one model bias I’ve noticed this season it’s the operational GFS (and CMC sometimes) over-doing troughs/cool advection.

The GFS in particular has had some monstrous busts locally, on the order of 10°F or more, inside 4 days. Pretty embarrassing.

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4 hours ago, Phil said:

In fact if there’s one model bias I’ve noticed this season it’s the operational GFS (and CMC sometimes) over-doing troughs/cool advection.

The GFS in particular has had some monstrous busts locally, on the order of 10°F or more, inside 4 days. Pretty embarrassing.

Monstrous busts?? I don't know about your location but the OP GFS here in the Heartland has been horrid lately. For about 3-5 days in a row of runs of the GFS it had State Record/ ALL time MAtx emps being close to being broken ( 114F)  -- which is ludicrous for a long term/ heck any model worth it's salt. The GFS is worthless - and the upgrade they gave it for temps is even worse. It's extremes in the winter are nearly worse if it wasn't for summer temps being more "close" due to water vapor in the air and less T/D depressions. Now the GFS is seeing a slightly warm  ( to 30yr norms) rest of July, but nothing like 1936 which it was trying to show-- or even 1955 or 2012.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

Monstrous busts?? I don't know about your location but the OP GFS here in the Heartland has been horrid lately. For about 3-5 days in a row of runs of the GFS it had State Record/ ALL time MAtx emps being close to being broken ( 114F)  -- which is ludicrous for a long term/ heck any model worth it's salt. The GFS is worthless - and the upgrade they gave it for temps is even worse. It's extremes in the winter are nearly worse if it wasn't for summer temps being more "close" due to water vapor in the air and less T/D depressions. Now the GFS is seeing a slightly warm  ( to 30yr norms) rest of July, but nothing like 1936 which it was trying to show-- or even 1955 or 2012.

I concur re: the GFS upgrade. Seems much worse now than it did previously.

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Just got smashed by a severe warned storm. Winds around 50mph with heavy rain and flashbulb lightning. Hail reports nearby but didn’t see any here.

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103.  Feels like 105.   
 

This is getting old. 🤨

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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6 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

We haven't had a true La Nina Summer in years.

And it also appears that ERCOT has not fixed all of the power grid after the Extreme Cold and Snow in February 2021, and it's being strained by this heat.

If we can get  winds at 10 mph, we will be able to generate enough wind power to supplement any shortfall. The mild wind has been saving us.  
 

Otherwise they ask us to raise our thermostats 1 or 2 degrees.  Seems to reduce demand.  That’s what we did 2 days ago.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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13 hours ago, Tom said:

Starting today, we will see a nice stretch of sunny weather and comfy DP's before a wall of humidity rushes E later on Friday into the weekend where we will be tracking a disturbance near the MW/GL's.  Cherish these days while you can in mid July!

image.gif

 

0z GEFS trending wetter for the GL's and eastern ag belt in the D5-10...nice hit for the IL crop fields...it also looks better for MO as well... @Clintonriding the edge and I think you'll get some moisture outta this pattern.

image.gif

 

The models keep trending better in the precip dept for the MW peeps and our eastern ag belt.  Several factors coming into plays...1) Disturbance tracking SE out of the Upper MW stalls out across MW/Lower Lakes 2) Stalled Frontal  boundary across OHV/S Gulf states 3) Tropical moisture

2.gif

 

Except for our central/southern Sub, the eastern Sub will escape any real sustained Heat...0z EPS trending wetter from IA/MN and points East and it surely wasn't looking like this just 24 hours ago.  I had a hunch the NW flow would deliver and I hope the trends continue.  IMO, it won't be till later the following weekend where the central ag belt will see a return of the "Ring of Fire" and the influence of the +PNA pattern.  The last week of July we could see the entire N.A. pattern amplify and drive a trough through the eastern CONUS.

1.png

 

Boy, the Euro weeklies are playing catch up quickly...CFSv2 has had the lead on this for a couple weeks now...Blocking pattern is poised to set up shop over N.A. to close out July.  Nice looking "hook over the top"...will this continue into August?  My gut says YES, but will nature AGREE?  As always...its' T-B-D...

image.png

The 3 major models agree with you.  That would be great as we are entering a crucial period for the corn crop.

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89/68 today and had a weak rumbler around 2pm. Today wasn't great for NE Kentucky but places east and south of me had a good line of storms.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Really cool radar loop of the N AZ area just east of Flagstaff, AZ yesterday afternoon/evening showing a line of storms racing SW towards Flagstaff...the decaying line then dies off into a swirly motion like a vortex...

image.gif

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Friday is looking pretty darn good for our MW peeps across IA/IL and eventually into MO/IN thru Monday....it'll be interesting where the convection sets up on Friday...

0z UKIE...

1.png

 

0z Euro...INDY is looking mighty nice bc they really have been missed this summer, but lately have been scoring some hits.  They need as much moisture as they can get out that way and into C IL.

2.png

 

 

 

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The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 79/63 there was no rain fall and there was 58% of possible sunshine. Here in MBY the overnight low for today so far was 65 and I had 0.07” of rain fall. At the current time there is some light rain falling and it is 65. The average H/L for today remains at 83/63 the record high for today is 108 set in 1936 and that is the all time official record high for Grand Rapids. The record low of 46 was set in 1898. There have been only two times when the low dropped below 50 on this date that one in 1898 and a low of 47 in 1976.

 

 

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Had an interesting feature here in S MI yesterday. An 2.4 magnitude earthquake happened in Monroe County ( in Luna Pier) at 12:49pm. That locale is in my south zone (approx an hr away or so). Also, the previous nite there, they had a Tornado Warning that had luckily expired w that front arriving. Interesting weather happening as of lately there.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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